Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons Tips - Hawks face Demons danger at Tassie fortress
The 2026 AFL Round 17 clash at UTAS Stadium pits the Hawthorn Hawks against the Melbourne Demons. Despite Hawthorn’s imposing 12-match home winning streak, the Demons arrive fresh from the bye, boasting a powerful contested game and midfield edge led by Max Gawn and Jack Steele. Wet, cold weather could result in a tight, low-scoring affair. While Hawthorn’s clearance game has improved, Melbourne’s strength at stoppages and recent 39-point win over the Hawks make them the value bet, especially with Hawthorn’s injury concerns. Back Melbourne with the point start.
- Hawthorn boasts a 12-game winning streak at UTAS Stadium, but faces injury troubles.
- Melbourne’s Max Gawn and Jack Steele provide a key edge in wet, contested conditions.
- Tip: Back Melbourne with the points start, as their midfield and ruck strengths could prove decisive.
2026 Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons Preview
- 2026 Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons Preview
- Head to Head
- Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
- Hawthorn Hawks Team News
- Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
- Melbourne Demons Team News
Hawthorn’s Tasmanian fortress will come under fire with the Demons to push the Hawks all the way in AFL Round 17.
The Hawks host the Demons at their home away from home, UTAS Stadium, in Launceston and have won their past 12 at the venue.
Cold and possibly wet conditions are forecast and this one could be a real grind, which will suit the Demons with Max Gawn set to be influential, giving Melbourne the upper hand at clearance and stoppage.
The dominant ruckman has an excellent record against the Hawks and led his side to a 39-point win over the brown and gold as recently as Round 10.
Melbourne shapes as the value play with the line around 18 points. While Hawthorn have responded strongly since that Round 10 defeat, this looms as a very different challenge in conditions that should favour contested football rather than free-flowing attack.
The Hawks have significantly improved their clearance work over the past fortnight, but Gawn has the ability to neutralise that advantage by giving Melbourne first use at stoppages. If the Demons can control territory through the midfield, they have the defensive structure to keep the contest tight throughout.
Hawthorn's record at UTAS Stadium is outstanding, but many of those victories have been hard-fought. Eight of their past 13 matches at the venue have been decided by fewer than 15 points, highlighting that visiting sides are capable of staying within striking distance even if the Hawks ultimately prevail.
Melbourne also arrive refreshed after the bye and remain one of the competition's strongest contested sides. Their ability to generate repeat inside 50s through hitouts and clearances should ensure they remain in the contest for long periods, particularly if the expected wet conditions turn the game into a stoppage battle.
There are also some injury concerns surrounding Hawthorn. Nick Watson will miss and his absence removes one of the Hawks' most dangerous small forwards, particularly at ground level.
Jack Steele has enjoyed this matchup throughout his career and looks well placed to continue that trend. The Melbourne midfielder has collected 25 or more disposals in each of his past three meetings with Hawthorn and should again find plenty of opportunities if Gawn is able to dominate the ruck.
- Melbourne claimed the Round 10 meeting between the two sides by 39 points.
- Eight of Hawthorn’s past 13 matches at the venue have been decided by less than 15 points.
- Jack Steele has had 25+ disposals in each of his past three matches against Hawthorn Max Gawn has averaged 21 disposals in his past eight matches against the Hawks
Head to Head
Melbourne took out the Round 10 clash this season by 39 points at the MCG, while the Hawks claimed both encounters last season. The two sides have never met at the venue.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;
- Jack Steele (Demons) - 26 disposals in the most recent meeting and has gone 25+ in each of his past three against the Hawks
- Jake Bowey (Demons) - 25+ disposals in two of his past three and 24 in the other
- Dylan Moore (Hawks) - 25+ disposals in his past two against Melbourne
- Nick Watson (Hawks) - Three goals in the most recent meeting
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Hawthorn have a win-loss record of 10-4-1 and have won four of five since their meeting against Melbourne back in Round 10. They come off a 14-point win over the GWS Giants at the MCG last weekend.
The Hawks have returned from the bye with an improved clearance game, recording 20-12 centre bounce clearances against the Gold Coast Suns a fortnight ago before registering a +26 clearance differential against the Giants.
Jai Newcombe has had 31 disposals in each of his past two outings and had 15 clearances against the Giants, while Will Day had his best match since his return from injury with 27 disposals.
Nick Watson booted three goals before coming off with hamstring tightness against the Giants and has kicked three goals in five of his past seven matches, while hitting two or more goals in each of his past 10. The Hawks play at UTAS Stadium and have won their past 12 matches at their home away from home. Eight of those victories have been in the 1-39 point margin bracket, with six decided by 13 points or less.
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn will be closely monitoring the fitness of Nick Watson, while Jack Gunston and Jack Scrimshaw will be out to prove their fitness after missing the past few weeks through injury. Sam Butler had a solid match in the VFL and is a chance to come into the side.
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Melbourne remain firmly in top-four contention with a 9-6 record but have lost three of their past five since their Round 10 meeting with Hawthorn. They went down to Adelaide by 17 points at Adelaide Oval in Round 15 before enjoying the bye.
The Demons rank second in the competition for inside 50s, highlighting their ability to generate opportunities through hitouts (second) and clearances (fourth). Their challenge has been converting those opportunities consistently, with inaccuracy costing them at times throughout the season.
Max Gawn was dominant against Adelaide with 28 disposals and 31 hitouts, while Tom Sparrow also gathered 28 disposals. Jacob van Rooyen kicked three goals.
Melbourne Demons Team News
Latrelle Pickett starred in the VFL in his last outing with four goals and will be considered, while Changkuoth Jiath has recovered from injury and may be selected to take on his former side.
Verdict
Take Melbourne with the start. Gawn and Steele influential
Melbourne +15.5
Line
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