Sydney Swans vs Melbourne Demons Tips - Demons the value against the top of the table Swans
The Sydney Swans, leading with a 6-1 record, face the Melbourne Demons in a highly anticipated match. Despite a commanding performance against the Western Bulldogs, Sydney could face strong opposition from Melbourne, who come in 5-2 with wins against top contenders. The Demons' recent dominance against the Swans adds intrigue, supported by their competitive midfield and scoring prowess. Key players like Jack Steele and Chad Warner are expected to play pivotal roles, making the game closer than the odds suggest. Sydney remains favorites, but Melbourne’s tenacity could challenge their dominance.
- Sydney Swans lead 6-1, but Melbourne poses a real threat.
- Jack Steele and Chad Warner expected to excel in a tight midfield battle.
- Melbourne’s recent success against Sydney suggests a competitive clash.
Sydney Swans vs Melbourne Demons Preview
- Sydney Swans vs Melbourne Demons Preview
- Head to Head
- Sydney Swans Form Analysis
- Sydney Swans Team News
- Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
- Melbourne Demons Team News
Sydney should win this, but Melbourne loom as genuine value with the 32.5-point start in what shapes as a far more competitive contest than the market suggests.
At first glance, the Swans look hard to oppose. They sit 6-1 and on top of the ladder, averaging just under 116 points per game with a percentage of 178.1. Their 66-point demolition of the Western Bulldogs last week showcased exactly how damaging they can be when their ball movement clicks, piling on 70 inside 50s and scoring heavily through multiple avenues.
But Melbourne aren’t a side that should be dismissed easily. They come in 5-2 and have beaten quality opposition already this season, including last year’s premiers Brisbane, while also putting Richmond away comfortably last weekend. Both sides have faced three finalists from last year and sit at two wins and a loss in those matchups — there’s very little separating them in terms of exposed form.
The recent head-to-head history also leans towards a tighter contest. Melbourne were dominant the last time the two sides met, winning by 53 points, and have taken three of the past four clashes overall, including two of the past three at the SCG. That suggests they match up well against Sydney’s system.
Melbourne’s scoring power under their new setup has been a major feature, averaging close to 100 points per game and spreading the load across multiple contributors. Kysaiah Pickett was electric again last week with four goals and 29 disposals, while their midfield depth continues to build.
That midfield battle is key in the Round 8 match, and it points directly to two strong player props. Jack Steele has an outstanding record against the Swans, hitting 25+ disposals in six of his past seven against them and backing it up with another 25 last weekend. Chad Warner has also found plenty of the footy in this matchup, recording 25+ in his past two against Melbourne and continuing his strong form in a dominant Sydney midfield.
Sydney will still control large parts of the game. Their ability to generate repeat inside 50s and capitalise through targets like Charlie Curnow gives them a clear scoring edge, and at the SCG they are notoriously difficult to contain.
But Melbourne’s ability to score, compete in the contest, and stay in games suggests this won’t blow out easily. They’ve shown they can absorb pressure and respond, and their recent form indicates they can hang around long enough to keep the margin honest.
Expect Sydney to get the job done, but Melbourne to push them harder than expected — the 32.5-point start looks generous, with Steele and Warner well placed to rack up 25+ disposals in what should be a high-level midfield battle.
- Both sides have played three finalists from last season for two wins and a loss
- The Demons were 53 point winners the last time the two sides met and have won two of their past three against the Swans at the SCG
- Jack Steele has had 25+ disposals in six of his past seven matches against the Swans and had 25 last weekend
- Chad Warner has had 25+ disposals in his past two matches against Melbourne
Head to Head
Melbourne were 53 point winners in the Round 10 MCG clash last season with Kozzie Pickett starring with five goals and 24 disposals, while Christian Salem and Ed Langdon both had 31 disposals.
The Swans took out the most recent clash at the SCG but the Demons have claimed three of the past four between the two sides and two of the past three at the venue.
Standout player performances in recent head to heads have come from;
Chad Warner (Swans)- 25+ disposals in his past two against the Demons
Tom Papley (Swans)- eight goals in his past four against Melbourne
Jack Steele (Demons)- 25+ disposals in six of his past seven when playing for St Kilda, with 24 coming in the other
Sydney Swans Form Analysis
Sydney sit on top of the ladder with a 6-1 win-loss record after their 66-point win over the Western Bulldogs. They have registered some big winning margins so far and sit with a healthy percentage of 178.1, averaging just under 116 points per game.
The win was set up by a dominant inside 50 count of 70-46 with Charlie Curnow playing his best game since switching from Carlton, cashing in with seven goals, while Chad Warner and Joel Amartey each kicked three. Matt Roberts (27 disposals) and Justin McInerney (24) found plenty of the footy.
Justin McInerney has averaged 26 disposals this season, the highest of any Swan. Isaac Heeney missed the Bulldogs match but has hit the 25+ in his past three matches, kicking six goals in that period. Brodie Grundy continues to produce in the ruck and had 35 hitouts and 18 disposals against the Bulldogs.
Sydney Swans Team News
Sydney got through the Bulldogs match with a clean bill of health on the injury front but Isaac Heeney missed with calf tightness and will be assessed during the week. They are unlikely to make too many changes to their lineup with Peter Ladhams and Caiden Cleary unable to find a way in, despite some dominant performances in the VFL.
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Melbourne sit 5-2 and have enjoyed a resurgence under Steven King. The Demons suffered a shock loss in Gather Round against Essendon but have rebounded in style with a two-point win over last year’s premiers, Brisbane, before cruising to a 54-point victory in the ANZAC Eve clash against Richmond.
A highlight of their playing style under King has been their scoring, going at just under 100 points per game this season, but reaching that mark in five of seven matches.
Kozzie Pickett was dominant last week with four goals from 29 disposals, while Brody Mihocek chimed in with three. Tom Sparrow, Caleb Windsor and Jack Steele were another three to join Pickett with 25+..
Melbourne Demons Team News
Jai Culley went down with a knee injury in the win over Richmond and will be out for the remainder of the season. Trent Rivers, Christian Salem and Jack Viney remain on the injury list. Jake Bowey made his return at VFL level last weekend but may need more match fitness.
Verdict
Melbourne to stick within the line with Steele and Warner finding plenty of footy for either side
Melbourne +31.5
Handicap -31.5
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