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Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Betting Tips - Tryscorer bets and an upset tipped in Round 24

andrew-hendrie
Andrew Hendrie
Editor
Last updated: Thu 13 Aug 2026 09:35
Brisbane Broncos are poised to challenge the in-form New Zealand Warriors in NRL Round 24. Despite a tough season, the Broncos' thrilling attack and potential Warriors' 'Panthers hangover' gives them upset value this weekend, especially with a +7.5 start or 13+ margin. The Warriors, coming off an emotionally and physically taxing win, may struggle to repeat their form. Key try scorer picks include Ezra Mam (Broncos) and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors). Betting leans toward a bold Broncos performance at Suncorp Stadium.
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  • Broncos tipped for upset due to Warriors' possible post-Panthers fatigue
  • Key scorer picks: Ezra Mam (Broncos), DWZ (Warriors)
  • Broncos +7.5 and 13+ margin offer betting value
brisbane broncos
Ezra Mam can score for the Broncos again (Getty Images)


Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors Verdict


The Warriors had a tough game last week in defeating the Penrith Panthers and there is value in taking them on in the aftermath of that victory. Brisbane are playing for pride only, but are still value to cover and potentially win at home. 
  • Only six teams have won the following week after playing the Panthers in 2026
  • Teams have a 6-10 record for a 37.5% win rate in the week after facing Penrith this season
  • Warriors have lost four of their last nine games
  • Broncos scored 24 points in the first 23 minutes vs Dolphins last week
  • Ezra Mam scored a hat-trick vs Dolphins last week
  • Dallin Watene-Zelezniak scored a double vs Broncos earlier this season, he also has 18 tries in 19 games this season

Broncos vs Warriors Head To Head

The Warriors have won three of the last four meetings between the teams, including a 42-12 demolition during Magic Round earlier this season.

Brisbane Broncos Form - No Towel Thrown In

It's obviously been a nightmare season for the Broncos and amazingly, they aren't out of wooden spoon contention just yet - but it would require a miracle late surge from the Dragons to condemn them to bottom spot.

Regardless, the Broncos have only managed six wins in their premiership defence with an absolutely star-studded roster - it's embarrassing and inexcusable, no matter how you spin it.

But, to Brisbane's credit, they've never really thrown in the towel. Of their last eight defeats, six have come via a 1-12 margin. Michael Maguire's side have also beaten Penrith in that period (losing to the Cowboys the following week).

The Broncos exploded out of the blocks last week and blitzed the Dolphins with four quick tries to take a 24-0 lead after 23 minutes, with Ezra Mam scoring a first-half hat-trick. However, Brisbane's defence was all over the place, they ultimately lost the second half 16-2 and the game 40-32.

New Zealand Warriors Form - Panthers Put Down

The Warriors stood up and announced their genuine premiership credentials with arguably the most impressive performance of the season last week to beat Penrith 28-12.

It was a statement display, with Luke Metcalf returning in the halves to score a double and control the game impeccably.

Andrew Webster's side are now just two points off the Panthers and Roosters at the top of the ladder as they chase down a possible minor premiership and home final.

The Wahs had been going through a rough patch of four defeats from seven games, but have returned to top form with a 42-6 demolition of the Titans followed by the aforementioned upset of Penrith.

Broncos vs Warriors Team News

Tom Duffy remains halfback for Brisbane, with Adam Reynolds still out with concussion. Aublix Tawha has been named on the bench, with Gehamat Shibasaki dropping out.

Te Maire Martin is sidelined with injury, with Luke Metcalf retaining his spot in the halves. Demitric Vaimauga returns on the bench in place of Morgan Gannon.

Verdict

There's merit in backing the Broncos for the upset. Mam & DWZ are the tryscorer props.

Best Bet1: Broncos +7.5 Line @7/8 at Hollywoodbets - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Broncos Win Match Result @7/4 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: D. Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Tryscorer @7/10 at Star Sports - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Ezra Mam Anytime Tryscorer @11/4 at Hollywoodbets - 1 Unit
Broncos +7.5
Line
@7/8 - 2 Units
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Broncos Win
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D. Watene-Zelezniak
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Ezra Mam
Anytime Tryscorer
@11/4 - 1 Unit
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andrew-hendrie
Andrew Hendrie

Sports Editor • 20+ years betting experience

Andrew has been writing about sports for over a decade now after graduating with a double degree in 2013. In that time he has covered a wide range of sports, including NRL, AFL, Football (soccer), Tennis, NBA, NFL and more.


As a fan of Manchester City (since the 90s, he’s not a bandwagoner so they say), Canterbury Bulldogs and the Newcastle Jets, he’s experienced the highest of highs and the lowest of lows throughout the last few years.

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