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Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders NRL Betting Tips - Storm to keep Raiders attack quiet in Round 16

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Fri 19 Jun 2026 10:47
The Melbourne Storm head into this NRL clash with Canberra Raiders in strong form, having won four of their last five matches and boasting a powerful home record. In contrast, the Raiders have lost four of their last five and have averaged just 15.6 points per game, struggling to convert opportunities into scores. The recommendation is to back Melbourne at -8.5, take Canberra under 20.5 points, and consider Moses Leo as an anytime tryscorer. The Storm are expected to cover the line and restrict the Raiders' scoring.
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Jeremy Darke 19 Jun 2026
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  • Storm have won 4 of last 5, in strong home form.
  • Raiders averaging just 15.6 points in last 5 games.
  • Tip: Storm -8.5, Canberra under 20.5 points, Moses Leo anytime tryscorer.
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storm raiders nrl
Canberra Raiders and Melbourne Storm meet on Sunday (Getty Images)

Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders Verdict


Canberra Raiders have scored just 15.6 points per game across their last five matches and have failed to crack 20 points in four of them. Melbourne Storm are back to form and can restrict the visitors to under their team total and cover the line.

  • Canberra are averaging just 15.6 points across their last five matches.
  • The Raiders have failed to score more than 20 points in four of their last five games.
  • Melbourne have scored 94 points across their last three home games.
  • Moses Leo has scored five tries in his last four appearances.

Head to Head


Recent meetings have generally been competitive, but Melbourne's home record against Canberra remains strong.

The Raiders won the most recent clash 26-22 earlier this season and also edged the Storm 20-18 in Melbourne last year. However, Melbourne have won 38 of 56 meetings overall and traditionally perform well at AAMI Park.

While Canberra have enjoyed some recent success in the matchup, the Storm enter this contest in considerably stronger form.

Melbourne Storm Form - Storm Back To Form


The Storm have won four of their last five matches and appear to be building momentum after a slow start to the season.

Their most recent outing was a thrilling 32-30 victory over Newcastle before the bye, while earlier wins over the Roosters, Eels and Tigers showcased the attacking upside this side still possesses. Melbourne are averaging 29.6 points across their last five matches while conceding only 17.6.

The return of Jack Howarth and Tyran Wishart strengthens the squad further, while Munster, Grant and Trent Loiero have all been named to back up after Origin.

Canberra Raiders Form - Raiders On The Slide


Canberra's season has slipped badly over the past month.

The Raiders have lost four of their last five matches while averaging only 15.6 points per game. They were shut out by the Roosters, scored 12 against Parramatta and have consistently struggled to convert territory into points.

Hudson Young and Ethan Strange return from Origin duty which helps, but Canberra's attack remains a major concern. 

The Raiders have failed to score more than 20 points in seven of their last eight matches and now face one of the competition's strongest home environments.

Verdict

Take Melbourne -8.5, Canberra Team Total Under 20.5 Points and Moses Leo Anytime Tryscorer.

Best Bet1: Melbourne -8.5 Handicap/Line @20/21 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Canberra Under 20.5 Team Total @10/11 at dabble - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Moses Leo Anytime Tryscorer @10/11 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Moses Leo First Tryscorer @15/2 at Ken Howells - 1 Unit
Melbourne -8.5
Handicap/Line
@20/21 - 3 Units
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Bet at dabble
Moses Leo
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Bet at Ken Howells
jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • 15+ Years of Experience, Australian Sports Specialist

Jeremy is a freelance journalist who is a true sports activist. A die-hard fan of the NRL all his life and also has a passion for all the major American sports.


From when he was a little fella he has played most sports ranging from rugby, ice hockey, tennis and football, just to name a few. His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster.

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