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Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights NRL Betting Tips - Knights backed with a start in Round 14

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Wed 03 Jun 2026 10:30
The Newcastle Knights, coming off four consecutive victories, face the Melbourne Storm, who have also improved form. Despite Melbourne's head-to-head dominance, recent matches have been lower scoring. Betting suggestions favor the Knights (+4.5), under 49.5 points in total, and Greg Marzhew continuing his try-scoring run. Expect a close, defense-oriented matchup where the underdog Knights can cover the line and keep the scoreline tight.
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Jeremy Darke 03 Jun 2026
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  • Knights are on a 4-game win streak and tipped to cover +4.5 handicap.
  • Expect a low-scoring match (under 49.5 points).
  • Greg Marzhew is in top try-scoring form.
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knights storm nrl
Newcastle Knights and Melbourne Storm clash (Getty Images)

Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights Verdict


Newcastle Knights have been given a +4.5 start on the line and I like the odds for them to stay within that. They have won four straight matches and can cover in a low-scoring game that sees under 49.5 points. 

  • The Knights have won 4 matches in a row.
  • Newcastle have conceded an average of 14 points in their last 3 matches.
  • Melbourne has scored 22 points or less in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • Greg Marzhew has scored 10 tries in his last 4 games.

Head to Head 


Melbourne holds a 3-2 advantage across the last five meetings and has won the past two encounters by 18 and eight points respectively.

The Storm were comfortable 32-14 winners when the sides met last season and have traditionally dominated this matchup, winning 32 of 49 meetings overall.

Interestingly, recent meetings have generally been lower-scoring affairs. Four of the last six clashes have produced 48 points or fewer, which aligns with the projected total sitting below the current market.

Melbourne Storm Form - Storm Turning Things Around


The Storm have quietly turned their season around after a disastrous seven-game losing streak. Craig Bellamy's side has now won three of its last four matches and remains within striking distance of the top eight despite sitting below its usual standards.

Last week's 18-4 win over the Roosters highlighted Melbourne's defensive improvement. The Storm completed their first 21 sets of the game and restricted one of the league's best attacks to a single try. 

Sua Fa'alogo was sensational, producing a career-best performance with 278 running metres, three linebreaks and 10 tackle busts. 

Harry Grant and Cameron Munster also backed up strongly from Origin duties and were key contributors in the victory.

Newcastle Knights Form - Hot Knights Win 4 Straight


Newcastle has become one of the hottest teams in the competition, winning four consecutive matches to surge back into finals contention.

The Knights have scored 28, 36, 44 and 42 points during their winning streak and are averaging 32.4 points per game across their last five outings. Dylan Brown has added another dimension to the attack, while Kalyn Ponga continues to be the side's most influential player despite the spotlight following his Origin appearance.

The emergence of Dylan Lucas has been another major positive. The damaging back-rower scored twice against Parramatta and now has five tries in his last four games, giving Newcastle genuine strike power on an edge.

Verdict

Take the Knights to cover as the away underdog in a match that will see less than 49.5 points. Greg Marzhew will continue his run of tries.

Best Bet1: Newcastle +4.5 Handicap/Line @10/11 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 49.5 Game Total @10/11 at dabble - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Greg Marzhew Anytime Tryscorer @7/8 at Star Sports - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Greg Marzhew First Tryscorer @7/1 at Ken Howells - 1 Unit
Newcastle +4.5
Handicap/Line
@10/11 - 3 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad

Bet at bet365
Under 49.5
Game Total
@10/11 - 2 Units
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New customers only. Bet £10+ to receive £10 in Free Bets. 7-day free bet expiry. Stake not returned. Promotional Terms Apply. 18+. GambleAware.org

Bet at dabble
Greg Marzhew
Anytime Tryscorer
@7/8 - 2 Units
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS

18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org

Bet at Star Sports
Greg Marzhew
First Tryscorer
@7/1 - 1 Unit
up to £25 Cashback
50% back with code NEWBONUS

The Ken Howells promo code is NEWBONUS. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. begambleaware.org

Bet at Ken Howells
jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • 15+ Years of Experience, Australian Sports Specialist

Jeremy is a freelance journalist who is a true sports activist. A die-hard fan of the NRL all his life and also has a passion for all the major American sports.


From when he was a little fella he has played most sports ranging from rugby, ice hockey, tennis and football, just to name a few. His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster.

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