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Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL Betting Tips - Panthers to make a statement in Round 25

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Tue 18 Aug 2026 10:08
The Penrith Panthers, after suffering back-to-back defeats, are expected to bounce back strongly against the Melbourne Storm, who have struggled defensively this season. Penrith dominated their previous meeting with a 50-10 win and have superior season-long stats, ranking high in both attack and defense. The Storm, coming off a bye and a win over Manly, still display concerns against top-tier teams. The key recommendation is to back the Panthers to cover the -8.5 line and look to Tom Jenkins in the tryscorer markets.
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  • Panthers expected to rebound and cover -8.5 line vs Storm
  • Penrith dominated last clash 50-10 and boast superior attack/defence stats
  • Tom Jenkins highlighted as key tryscorer pick for this matchup
panthers storm
Penrith Panthers and Melbourne Storm clash (Getty Images)

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers Verdict


Penrith have hit a blip with back-to-back defeats to derail their run to the finals, but they can bounce back against Melbourne Storm. It was 50-10 in the Round 5 clash between the sides and the Panthers can cover the -8.5 line in this one. 

  • Penrith defeated Melbourne 50-10 when the teams met in Round 5.
  • Melbourne have conceded an average of 28 points across their last three games.
  • Penrith rank third in the NRL for points scored and first for run metres.
  • Tom Jenkins scored two tries against Melbourne earlier this season.

Head to Head


Penrith produced a 50-10 demolition in Round 5, running away with a 40-point victory and providing a strong reference point for the quality gap between these sides in 2026.

Melbourne Storm Form - Run Ended


Melbourne come into Round 25 fresh from the bye after snapping a three-game losing streak with a 42-20 victory over Manly.

That performance demonstrated the attacking threat still available to Craig Bellamy, with Sua Fa'alogo starring as the Storm overturned a 14-0 deficit and scored 42 unanswered points. Cameron Munster is also available after his judiciary charge was downgraded.

However, the wider numbers show why Melbourne remain difficult to trust against the competition's best sides. They have conceded 28, 36 and 20 points across their past three matches and sit just 11th on the ladder after nine wins from 21 games.

Their season-long defensive numbers are also a major contrast to Penrith. Melbourne concede 24 points per game compared with just 14 for the Panthers.

Penrith Panthers Form - Dip With Back-to-Back Defeats


Penrith are experiencing a rare late-season dip after losses to the Warriors and Roosters.

The Panthers were held to six points against Sydney last week and have failed to score in the first half in consecutive matches. Their attack looked disjointed against the Roosters despite repeatedly finding its way into attacking territory.

Those performances should not erase the quality Penrith have shown across the full season. They remain second with 15 wins from 21 matches, average 28 points per game and have conceded only 313 points all year.

The underlying matchup numbers are also strongly in Penrith's favour. They rank first for run metres compared with Melbourne's 15th, while their defence ranks first for points conceded and second for linebreak prevention.

Verdict

Panthers are backed to rediscover their form, covering the 8.5 points as favourite by putting up over 24.5 points in the match. Tom Jenkins is the focus in the tryscorer markets.
Best Bet1: Panthers -8.5 Handicap/Line @10/11 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Penrith Over 24.5 Team Total @190/1 at dabble - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Tom Jenkins Anytime Tryscorer @8/11 at Star Sports - 3 Units
Best Bet4: Tom Jenkins First Tryscorer @13/2 at Ken Howells - 1 Unit
Panthers -8.5
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jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • 15+ Years of Experience, Australian Sports Specialist

Jeremy is a freelance journalist who is a true sports activist. A die-hard fan of the NRL all his life and also has a passion for all the major American sports.


From when he was a little fella he has played most sports ranging from rugby, ice hockey, tennis and football, just to name a few. His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster.

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