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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights NRL Betting Tips - Knights to win a thriller in Round 19

ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker
Editor
Last updated: Thu 09 Jul 2026 10:48
The Newcastle Knights have the edge over the South Sydney Rabbitohs in their upcoming NRL clash, having won their last four meetings. Souths are dealing with key absences and major reshuffles in their lineup, especially in crucial positions like the halves and backline. Meanwhile, Newcastle are in strong form, winning four out of their last five games. The top recommendations are to back Newcastle to win by a 1-12 point margin, take them to score over 22.5 points, and consider Greg Marzhew in any tryscorer markets.
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Ryan Tucker 09 Jul 2026
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  • Knights have won 4 straight vs Rabbitohs and are in strong form.
  • South Sydney weakened by key absences and lineup reshuffles.
  • Best bet: Knights 1-12 margin, over 22.5 team total, Marzhew tryscorer.
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Newcastle Knights (Getty Images)

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights Verdict


South Sydney are hit with absentees and I'm taking them on as a result. The value play is to take the Knights to go over their 22.5 team total and grab the extra value on them to win by a 1-12 point margin.

  • Newcastle have won their last four games against South Sydney.
  • South Sydney have a major spine and backline reshuffle.
  • Newcastle have scored 21.0 points per game across their last five, but their attack has more upside with Ponga and Best named.
  • Greg Marzhew scored three tries against South Sydney earlier this season.

Head to Head Stats


Newcastle have won four of the last five meetings between these clubs, including a 42-38 win earlier this season. 

South Sydney's only win in that stretch came back in 2022, and the Knights have repeatedly found ways to trouble the Rabbitohs' edge defence.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Form - Top 8 Struggles


South Sydney have averaged 25.2 points scored and 22.4 conceded across their last five, but those numbers do not fully capture the disruption in this week's team list. 

Walker's suspension forces a new halves combination, Dufty comes in at fullback and Duncan moves into the centres.

There is still attacking talent here, but the Rabbitohs are being asked to fit a lot of pieces together against a top-four opponent. 

They have also lost five of their last six games against top-eight opposition, which makes the market respect difficult to trust.

Newcastle Knights Form - 4 Wins In 5


Newcastle have won four of their last five games and continue to find ways to close tight contests. 

They have averaged 21.0 points scored and 18.4 conceded in that run, but the team list looks stronger if Ponga and Best back up as named.

The Knights are not blowing teams away, which is why the 1-12 margin appeals. 

Their attack still has enough strike to clear 22.5, especially with Marzhew, Dominic Young, Ponga and Best all capable of creating points from limited chances.

Verdict

Take Newcastle 1-12, Knights over 22.5 team total, and Greg Marzhew in both the anytime and first tryscorer markets.

Best Bet1: Newcastle 1-12 Winning Margin @9/4 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Knights over 22.5 Team Total @7/8 at dabble - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Greg Marzhew Anytime Tryscorer @5/6 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Greg Marzhew First Tryscorer @6/1 at Ken Howells - 1 Unit
Newcastle 1-12
Winning Margin
@9/4 - 2 Units
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Knights over 22.5
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Bet at dabble
Greg Marzhew
Anytime Tryscorer
@5/6 - 1 Unit
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Bet at Star Sports
Greg Marzhew
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Bet at Ken Howells
ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Australian Sports Specialist & Betting Model Expert

Ryan's love for sport traverses many countries and cultures. From humble beginnings in Western Sydney growing up playing and refereeing Rugby League to running European wide Australian Rules Football tournaments there is a mountain of experience in between. 


Multiple trips to North America has also deepened the love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.

Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for NRL.

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