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St George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights NRL Betting Tips - Knights to cover in Round 10

andrew-hendrie
Andrew Hendrie
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Last updated: Thu 07 May 2026 09:17
The Newcastle Knights are strong favorites to triumph over the struggling St George Illawarra Dragons, who have yet to record a win this NRL season. The Knights, with key stars like Kalyn Ponga returning to top form, recently snapped their losing streak and are tipped to cover a -8.5 points line in what is expected to be another high-scoring contest. The Dragons, reeling from a disastrous start and heavy defeats, face a tough challenge to avoid a winless season, especially with a difficult run of fixtures ahead.
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Andrew Hendrie 07 May 2026
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  • Knights tipped to cover -8.5 against winless Dragons
  • Dragons have lost 12 straight and conceded huge points
  • Kalyn Ponga targets sixth try in five games vs Dragons
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Dragons Knights
Dragons host Knights on Saturday (Photo by Getty Images)


St George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights Preview


The Knights haven't won at WIN Stadium since 2011 but they won't get a better chance. The Dragons are woeful and Newcastle have too many weapons for them with covering a -8.5 line the best bet.
  • Dragons have lost their last 12 games
  • Dragons have failed to cover a +8.5 line in six of their last seven games
  • Dragons have conceded 92 points in their last two games
  • Dragons have conceded 114 points in their last three games at WIN Stadium
  • Knights have seen 56+ points in their last four games & 80 last week vs Rabbitohs
  • Knights have covered a -8.5 line in three of their five wins this season
  • Kalyn Ponga has scored five tries in his last four appearances vs Dragons
  • Dragons have conceded 1+ try to opposition fullbacks in their last four games

Dragons vs Knights Head To Head

Dragons won the only meeting last year, but the Knights prevailed in the two previous encounters, scoring 30+ points in both. Newcastle haven't won at WIN Stadium in 15 years.

St George Illawarra Dragons Form - Winless Season Possible

With each passing week, the likelihood of the Dragons going winless across the season actually becomes a genuine possibility.

I mean, if they don't win this game, they have the Panthers, Warriors, Broncos and Sharks coming up over the next month.

It goes without saying it's been a shambolic start to the season - a 0-8 record has led to the departure of Shane Flanagan, but seriously, what is Dean Young supposed to do with this roster?

Young halfback Kade Reed was thrown into the deep end in his NRL debut on ANZAC Day against the Roosters - he showed some promising signs, but ideally you'd like for him to develop further in NSW Cup as the Dragons were demolished 62-16 by the Roosters.

Newcastle Knights Form - Losing Streak Snapped

The Knights snapped a three-match losing streak last week to get their season back on track following some injuries to their key attacking players across the early rounds.

With the likes of Ponga, Brown and Sharpe all back on deck, the Knights emerged triumphant in an 80-point shootout with the Rabbitohs last week, holding on for a thrilling 42-38 victory.

It certainly wasn't a game for the purists and I have mixed feelings about where the sport is heading, but watching this Knights side in full flow is definitely entertaining.

Ponga had 21 runs for over 200 metres in his return from injury, while Brown and Sharpe continue to develop their halves combination. Greg Marzhew is reaping the rewards out wide, while forwards Trey Mooney and Dylan Lucas also scored doubles last week.

Dragons vs Knights Team News

No changes to the Knights side that toppled Souths last week.

Clint Gutherson returns for the Dragons at fullback, pushing Tyrell Sloan back to the reserves. Dylan Egan is also back for his first game since tearing his ACL last year as he replaces the suspended Luciano Leilua.

Kade Reed and Daniel Atkinson remain the halves.

Verdict

The Knights are tipped to cover a -8.5 line in another high-scoring game. Ponga targets a sixth try in five games against the Dragons.

Best Bet1: Knights -8.5 Line @9/10 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Over 51.5 Total Points @17/20 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Kalyn Ponga Anytime Tryscorer @13/10 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Kalyn Ponga First Tryscorer @11/1 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Knights -8.5
Line
@9/10 - 3 Units
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Over 51.5
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Bet at bet365
Kalyn Ponga
Anytime Tryscorer
@13/10 - 1 Unit
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Kalyn Ponga
First Tryscorer
@11/1 - 1 Unit
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