Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Predictions & Betting Tips - RLWC 2026

Andrew Hendrie

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Fact Checked by Ryan Tucker

Last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026 13:18

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Papua New Guinea are backed to cover a +30.5 handicap against Samoa due to their strong home record and recent form.
Samoa are favourites, but showed some inconsistencies despite a big opening win.
Expert tips highlight PNG’s ability to keep the match close, making the handicap an attractive bet.
The game is scheduled for kick off at 3.25pm AEDT on Saturday October 24

Brian To'o, Stephen Crichton and Jarome Luai of Samoa. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Rugby League World Cup Expert Tips

Papua New Guinea are backed to keep things competitive against Samoa in the 2026 Rugby League World Cup on Saturday, October 24, with the Kumuls tipped to cover a generous 30.5-point handicap in Port Moresby.

Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Rugby League World Cup Expert Tips
Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Stats & Trends
Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Head To Head
Papua New Guinea Form Analysis
Samoa Form Analysis
Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Team News

Papua New Guinea made an impressive start to their World Cup campaign, defeating Lebanon 42-18 in Port Moresby. The Kumuls scored seven tries through seven different players, demonstrating the attacking depth that could trouble Samoa.

PNG's home record is another major factor. They have won 15 of their last 16 Test matches in Port Moresby and have not conceded more than 43 points in a home international since 2001.

Samoa, meanwhile, opened their tournament with a commanding 78-4 victory over France but despite the emphatic scoreline, Samoa committed 12 errors and were occasionally wasteful in possession, meaning there is room for improvement.

Sualauvi Fa'alogo was the standout performer, scoring four tries, making six line breaks and running for 253 metres after replacing the injured Deine Mariner.

Samoa possess the stronger squad and should win, but PNG's home advantage and recent form make the +30.5 handicap an attractive selection.

Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Stats & Trends

Papua New Guinea have won 15 of their last 16 Test matches in Port Moresby.
PNG have won six of their last seven internationals.
Samoa have won all three previous meetings with PNG.
Ten of Samoa's last 11 Tests have produced fewer than 59.5 points.
Robert Derby has scored nine tries in his last nine appearances for PNG.
Sualauvi Fa'alogo scored four tries against France in Samoa's World Cup opener.

Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Head To Head

Samoa have won all three previous meetings.

All three have seen Under 59.5 total points, with PNG covering a +30.5 line in two.

Year	Winner	Score	Venue
2019	Samoa	24–6	Leichhardt Oval
2013	Samoa	38–4	Craven Park
2009	Samoa	26–18	Apia Park

Papua New Guinea Form Analysis

Great start to the World Cup for PNG - they dismantled Lebanon 42-18 last weekend in Port Moresby, which should give them confidence going into a much tougher test here.

Former Canterbury Bulldogs second-rower Rhyse Martin scored 18 of those points, scoring a try and kicking 7/7 conversions.

There were seven different tryscorers for PNG, illustrating their threat from all over the park. Robert Derby ran for a game-high 235 metres, registering two line breaks and scoring his ninth try in as many games for the Kumuls.

Samoa Form Analysis

Samoa absolutely obliterate France in their World Cup opener, dropping 78 points on their opponents and honestly, if not for some poor errors and ill-discipline, they could have racked up a century.

Sualauvi Fa'alogo reaped the rewards with four tries, six line breaks and 253 running metres after coming off the bench to replace Deine Mariner, who went off early with a hamstring injury.

Stephen Crichton converted 11 of 14 conversions as Samoa made an early statement.

Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Team News

Papua New Guinea have made several changes following their opening victory with Bailey Biondi-Odo again being named at halfback, while Epel Kapinias and Jack de Belin move into the starting forward pack. Josh Feledy, Rodrick Tai and Khaiya Waiembi have been added to the interchange.

Samoa have named Sualauvi Fa'alogo on the wing following his four-try performance against France replacing the injured Deine Mariner, while Ronald Volkman joins the interchange.

Jarome Luai continues to captain Samoa, with Stephen Crichton, Brian To'o and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow providing further attacking quality.

PNG	Position	Samoa
Morea Morea	1 – Fullback	Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
Robert Derby	2 – Winger	Brian To'o
Zac Laybutt	3 – Centre	Izack Tago
Nene Macdonald	4 – Centre	Stephen Crichton
Dudley Dotoi	5 – Winger	Sualauvi Fa'alogo
Gairo Voro	6 – Five-Eighth	Chanel Harris-Tavita
Bailey Biondi-Odo	7 – Halfback	Jarome Luai (C)
Epel Kapinias	8 – Prop	Francis Molo
Edwin Ipape	9 – Hooker	Benaiah Ioelu
Luca Moretti	10 – Prop	Junior Paulo
Rhyse Martin (C)	11 – Second Row	Connelly Lemuelu
Nixon Putt	12 – Second Row	Jermaine McEwen
Jack De Belin	13 – Lock	Francis Manuleleua
Finley Glare	14 – Interchange	Jazz Tevaga
Liam Horne	15 – Interchange	Spencer Leniu
Valentine Richard	16 – Interchange	Shawn Blore
Khaiya Waiembi	17 – Interchange	Ata Mariota
Rodrick Tai	18 – Interchange	Clayton Faulalo
Josh Feledy	19 – Interchange	Ronald Volkman
Sylvester Namo	20 – Reserve	Pasami Saulo
Sanny Wabo	21 – Reserve	Enari Tuala
Zev John	22 – Reserve	Eddie Ieremia-Toeava

Verdict

Papua New Guinea v Samoa

Last week was a training run for Samoa - this will be a much tougher test. They probably still win, but PNG should be competitive at home.

PNG +30.5

Line

@9/10 - 2 Units

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Robert Derby

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Andrew has been writing about sports for over a decade now after graduating with a double degree in 2013. In that time he has covered a wide range of sports, including NRL, AFL, Football (soccer), Tennis, NBA, NFL and more.

As a fan of Manchester City (since the 90s, he’s not a bandwagoner so they say), Canterbury Bulldogs and the Newcastle Jets, he’s experienced the highest of highs and the lowest of lows throughout the last few years.

You can find Andy at Muckrack and X.