2026 State of Origin Game 1 Man of the Match Tips - 2 predictions for Best on Ground
The article highlights the best value predictions for Man of the Match in the opening game of the 2026 State of Origin series between Queensland and New South Wales. Harry Grant from Queensland is a standout due to his strong recent form and key stats, making him a prime contender. For New South Wales, James Tedesco is again tipped, thanks to his impressive record and dynamic start to 2026. Statistical trends favor both positions. Punters are urged to consider these two as top picks for best on ground at Accor Stadium.
- Harry Grant (QLD) & James Tedesco (NSW) tipped as top Man of the Match picks.
- Recent trends: forwards and halves often win MOTM in Origin clashes.
- Form, stats, and key roles point to Grant and Tedesco as strong value bets.
2026 State of Origin Game 1 Man of the Match Predictions
Who will be the star men in the opening game of the State of Origin 2026 series? I've got two value selections picked out for the best on ground in NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons.
Payne Haas took the honours in Game 1 of the 2025 series and Daly Cherry-Evans back in 2024. It is often the play makers that get the glory but a strong defensive performance and some power running can see one of the big boys get the recognition they deserve.
Based on the trends and historical results, I've provided my two best bets for the man of the match award at Accor Stadium.
- Since 2017, 9 forwards, 10 halves, 6 fullbacks and 2 centres have won the MOTM honours.
- A Prop Forward has won Man of the Match in 2 of the last 3 Game One’s
- A half has won Man of the Match in 4 of the last 6 Origin matches.
Origin Man of the Match Predictions
Harry Grant - Queensland
Despite Melbourne’s slow start to 2026, Harry Grant is playing some of his best footy and certainly lifted over the last two weeks to lead the Storm out of their worst slump in their history.
Scrolling the records I was quite surprised that the QLD hooker has never won a Man of the Match award at Origin level. If the Maroons are to stun the Blues in Game 1, Grant’s speed around the ruck is going to have to be a feature in the modern 2026 version of Origin. With momentum swings the hooker position is probably more valuable than it has ever been with No. 9s taking advantage of tired forwards.
Grant has 5 tries this season for Melbourne along with 4 try assists and 3 line break assists.
James Tedesco - New South Wales
The NSW fullback has already won the Man of the Match 3 times, the latest in Game 2 of the 2021 series, while also picking up the award in Game 2 of the 2019 series and Game 1 of the 2018 series.
Tedesco’s inclusion in the Blues squad was somewhat controversial, pushing Australian fullback and last year’s No. 1 Dylan Edwards out of the squad, despite Penrith sitting comfortably on the ladder.
There will be no better way for Tedesco to pay Laurie Daley for his confidence then putting in a Man of the Match performance and leading the Blues to victory.
Teddy has had a blinding start to 2026 with 6 tries and 8 try assists along with 11 line breaks and 60 tackle breaks for the Roosters.
Verdict
Harry Grant and James Tedesco are the best value picks for Man of the Match for Game 1.
Harry Grant
SOO Man of the Match
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James Tedesco
SOO Man of the Match
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From when he was a little fella he has played most sports ranging from rugby, ice hockey, tennis and football, just to name a few. His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster.
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