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2026 State of Origin Game 1 First Tryscorer Tips - 3 best bets for the tryscorer markets

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Mon 25 May 2026 11:50
The 2026 State of Origin Game 1 first try scorer market is led by outside backs, with historical trends favoring wingers and centers. Brian To’o (NSW) is the top pick thanks to his remarkable scoring record. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD) is a strong contender with a high strike rate, while Haumole Olakau’atu (NSW) offers value as a dark horse, capitalizing on the pace of modern play. Bettors are advised to focus on these three players due to their proven scoring abilities and current form.
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Jeremy Darke 25 May 2026
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  • First try scorer market favors outside backs, especially wingers and centers.
  • Top picks: Brian To’o (NSW), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD), Haumole Olakau’atu (NSW).
  • NSW have scored first in 7 of the last 9 Game Ones.
brian to'o origin
Brian To'o to get the opening try? (Getty Images)

2026 State of Origin First Tryscorer


The first tryscorer of State of Origin Game 1 is one of the most hotly-contested and I've crunched the numbers to come up with three selections. 

In the State of Origin series, trends favour outside backs, who have dominated this market. In 2025, NSW wingers Lomax & To’o crossed the line first in Games 1 and 2 and Queensland’s Xavier Coates got the Maroons off to the best start in Game 3. 

Will this 2026 opener follow suit and see more of the same? Also read the full Origin Game 1 tips and preview.

  • In the 27 games played in the last 8 years, a Queensland has scored the first try 14 times, a New South Welshman 13 times
  • NSW have scored the first try in Game One in 7 of the previous 9 years.
  • The centres (9) and wingers (10) have naturally dominated the first try scoring category, second-rowers have scored on 4 occasions with no other position scoring first more than once. 

State of Origin Game 1 First Tryscorer Predictions


Brian To’o (NSW)

If you do not have Brian To’o in your first try scorer repertoire then you are not taking it seriously. The Blues winger scored 5 tries in 2025, scoring in each match, the first try and getting a triple in Game 2.

It may be a little bit “quieter” year in Penrith with 7 tries in 11 games with all of the attention on Jenkins but the nuggetty No. 2 is still getting it done when needed at the foot of the mountain. 

To’o is the favourite for a reason so don’t leave him out.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD) 

The Hammer is back in the centres for Queensland for Game 1 after playing 3 different positions for the Maroons in last year’s series. Tabuai-Fidow played Game 1 in the No. 4 jersey last season and has played the majority of his Origin games on the edge. 

The Dolphins fullback has a strike-rate of over one try per game at Origin level and will be keen to add to the 11 tries he has in the Maroon jersey.  

Haumole Olakau’atu (NSW) 

With the speed of the game quicker than ever under the new six-again rules making tired forwards an even larger target after repeat sets, Haumole Olakau’atu is a big chance to break this game open early.

The Manly second-rower has been a big part of the Sea Eagles success under Keiren Foran and he will look to repay Laurie Daly for his inclusion in the squad by running the ball as much as possible. 

Look for Olakau’atu to pick out slower forwards and the smaller defenders and split through the line, especially if there is a chance of a try inside the red zone. 

Verdict

To’o and the Hammer are always a big chance but Haumole Olakau’atu is a decent roughie for the first try scorer of Origin 1
Best Bet1: Brian To'o First Try Scorer @15/2 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow First Try Scorer @12/1 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Haumole Olakau’atu First Try Scorer @16/1 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Brian To'o
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Haumole Olakau’atu
First Try Scorer
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