State of Origin 2026 Game 1 Betting Tips & Preview - NSW Blues to win opener at home against QLD Maroons
The State of Origin Game 1 sees the NSW Blues tipped for a narrow victory over the QLD Maroons at Accor Stadium, given their strong 20-12 record at the venue. Trends indicate a close game, with 6 of the last 8 Game 1s decided by 1-12 points and low overall totals. While Queensland bring changes and debutants, experts back NSW to edge the contest (1-12 margin) with under 42.5 points, and suggest Brian To’o as a top tryscorer pick.
- NSW Blues tipped for a narrow (1-12) win over QLD Maroons at Accor Stadium
- Low-scoring trend expected (Under 42.5 points); To’o top tryscorer pick
- Key squad changes for both teams, with debutants and star returns
- State of Origin Game 1 Verdict - NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons
- Head to Head
- NSW Blues Form
- NSW Blues Team News
- QLD Maroons Form
- QLD Maroons Team News
- NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons Team Lists
State of Origin Game 1 Verdict - NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons
New South Wales are backed to take the early advantage by winning State of Origin Game 1 at Accor Stadium, where they have a 20-12 record over the Queensland Maroons.
Not a lot of tries have been scored over the past few Origin series so I'm backing NSW to win with a 1-12 margin and the Game Total to go Under 42.5.
We've also got first tryscorer and man of the match tips picked for Origin 1.
- 6 of the last 8 Game 1 matches have finished with a 1-12 margin. NSW hold a 20-12 record at Accor Stadium.
- 9 of the last 15 Origin Games have gone Under 42.5 pts.
- NSW have scored first in 7 of the last 9 Game 1 matchups.
- Brian To’o scored a try in every game last year and has 8 tries over his last 7 Origin matches.
Head to Head
The 2025 Series was won by QLD 2-1, who clinched Games 2 and 3 on the road in Perth and Sydney after losing Game 1 at Suncorp. QLD have now won three of the last four series dating back to 2022.
QLD lead the overall series H2H 25-17 with two series being drawn. The Maroons also hold an advantage in game wins 70-60 with 2 games ending in a draw.
NSW have not won a series opener at Accor Stadium since 2013 and across all Origin Games played at Accor Stadium NSW are 20-12 with 1 game being drawn.
NSW Blues Form
The Blues have reigning Dally M Medallist James Tedesco, arguably the best player in the world in Nathan Cleary, Mitch Moses’ kicking game and some of the most mobile forwards in the league.
Their backline has been their foundation in recent years, able to create metres out of their own end from nothing. But this new set up doesn’t pack that same punch, even if they are probably more dynamic attacking the tryline.
The Blues have great depth and coverage across the forwards and halves but only 1 specialist winger and fullback in the whole squad leaves them short if anything was to happen early in the game.
NSW Blues Team News
Laurie Daley has made a number of huge calls in his State of Origin teams list, none bigger than bringing back James Tedesco in the fullback role, leaving Dylan Edwards out of the squad completely.
Kotoni Staggs and Tolu Koula are also named to start in the backline with injuries to Latrell Mitchell & Tom Trbojevic aswell as Zac Lomax leaving the game, opening up spots.
Daley has opted for a more mobile forward unit, naming Victor Radley and Cam Murray on the bench with only Jacob Saifiti being an out and out prop. Addin Fonua-Blake joins the team with the new eligibility rules with Haumole Olakau'atu grabbing an edge backrow spot over the Roosters Angus Crichton.
QLD Maroons Form
The Maroons have named a strong team to start the 2026 series but will be without Tom Dearden who has been essential to the success of the team in recent years.
Also with new eligibility rules, Kalyn Ponga and Briton Nikora become eligible which strengthens the Maroons outside attack.
Where this team is lacking is their defence, especially out wide. Hammer, Cobbo and Fifita are not known for their defensive capabilities and up against the strength of the opposition could find themselves in some trouble. But what they lack in strength, they make up in speed.
The new spine has never played a minute of football together so could take time to gel but Harry Grant and Cam Munster are entering a spell of great form which usually only gets better in Origin.
QLD Maroons Team News
Reece Walsh was overlooked for Game 1 with Kalyn Ponga securing the fullback role and Sam Walker named to debut in the halves, replacing Tom Dearden who is out injured.
Xavier Coates, Josh Papalii and Jeremiah Nanai are also on the injured list with Jojo Fifita, Max Plath and Briton Nikora are named to make their debut for QLD. Selwyn Cobbo returns to the Origin arena following a strong start to the year for the Dolphins.
NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons Team Lists
| NSW | # | QLD |
|---|---|---|
| J Tedesco | 1 | K Ponga |
| B To'o | 2 | S Cobbo |
| S Crichton | 3 | R Toia |
| K Staggs | 4 | H Tabuai-Fidow |
| T Koula | 5 | J Fifita |
| M Moses | 6 | C Munster |
| N Cleary | 7 | S Walker |
| A Fonua-Blake | 8 | T Flegler |
| R Robson | 9 | H Grant |
| M Barnett | 10 | T Fa'asuamaleaui |
| H Young | 11 | R Cotter |
| H Olakau'atu | 12 | K Capewell |
| I Yeo | 13 | M Plath |
| - | Interchange | - |
| C Murray | 14 | B Nikora |
| V Radley | 15 | L Collins |
| J Saifiti | 16 | P Carrigan |
| B Brailey | 17 | T Loiero |
| E Strange | 18 | E Mam |
| C McLean | 19 | G Shibasaki |
| - | Reserve | - |
| D Lucas | 20 | K Finefeuiaki |
Verdict
I'm backing NSW to win with a 1-12 margin and the Game Total to go Under 42.5. Brian To’o is the top play for tryscorer, both as First and Anytime.
NSW 1-12
Winning Margin
@19/10 - 3 Units
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Under 42.5
Game Total
@9/10 - 3 Units
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Brian To'o
Anytime Tryscorer
@20/21 - 3 Units
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Brian To'o
First Tryscorer
@15/2 - 1 Unit
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