Tonga vs Samoa Tips & Preview - Tight clash points to Tribet in Rugby League World Cup 2026
Tonga and Samoa meet in a closely matched rugby league contest, with the main tip being either team to win by 1-12 points, reflecting their history of tight encounters—ten of their 23 Tests have been decided by 12 points or fewer, including one draw. A small stake on a draw after 80 minutes is also suggested. Jojo Fifita and Sua Fa'alogo are highlighted as anytime tryscorer options, both showing strong recent form. Tonga make several changes to their line-up, while Samoa remain unchanged except for Jazz Tevaga returning to the bench.
- Tip: Either team to win by 1-12 points, with a draw also considered.
- Ten of 23 Tests between Tonga and Samoa have been decided by 12 points or fewer.
- Jojo Fifita and Sua Fa'alogo are highlighted as anytime tryscorer options.
Tonga vs Samoa Verdict
A tight game is expected and I'm taking either team to win this by 1-12 points. A small stake is advised on a draw after 80 minutes with the sides hard to split and Jojo Fifita and Sua Fa'alogo can make an impact.
- Tonga have conceded just 12 points in two games, while Samoa have conceded 10.
- 10 of the 23 Tests between these nations have been decided by 1-12 points, and one finished in a draw.
- The last World Cup meeting between them was a 20-18 Samoa win in the 2022 quarter-final.
- Sua Fa'alogo has scored 6 tries in two games, with 426 Run Metres.
- Jojo Fifita scored 2 tries and made 3 Linebreaks against Lebanon.
Head to Head
This is one of the closest rivalries in international rugby league with Samoa leading the head-to-head 12-10 with one draw across 23 Tests.
Samoa have won the last two - 20-18 in the 2022 World Cup quarter-final in Warrington and 34-6 at the 2025 Pacific Championships in front of nearly 45,000 fans at Suncorp Stadium.
Tonga won the two meetings before that, including 32-18 at the 2017 World Cup.
In total, 10 of the 23 meetings have been decided by 12 points or fewer, and the sides drew 20-20 in 1998.
Tonga Form
Tonga have conceded just 12 points in two games at the World Cup in a positive start.
They opened with a 30-12 win over England in Perth, then beat Lebanon 36-0 at CommBank Stadium with seven tries to none in front of 25,065 fans.
Their scramble defence in a tough first half against Lebanon was outstanding, and Haumole Olakau'atu led the way in attack and defence.
Tonga did it without Isaiya Katoa against Lebanon, and he is back on Sunday. That lets Tui Lolohea move to five-eighth for his 25th Test, with Latu Fainu on the bench.
Tyson Frizell returns at lock, Jason Taumalolo moves into the front row, and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Robert Toia come back into the backline. A Tonga win guarantees a semi-final spot.
Samoa Form
Samoa have been the most dominant team in the pool. They beat France 78-4 in Round 1, a record score and winning margin for Samoa at a World Cup, with Fa'alogo scoring four tries after coming on for Mariner.
They followed that with a 64-6 win over PNG in Port Moresby, after trailing 6-4 early. Leniu turned that PNG game. His 38-minute stint helped Samoa go from 6-4 down to a 28-6 lead, and they scored six tries in the final 15 minutes.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow scored twice with 154 Run Metres and seven tackle breaks, and Stephen Crichton kicked 11 from 14 conversions against France. Ben Gardiner has named the same starting side, with Jazz Tevaga back on the bench.
Team News
Tonga's Isaiya Katoa (ankle) returns at halfback, so Tui Lolohea moves to five-eighth for his 25th Test and Latu Fainu goes to the interchange.
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Robert Toia return to the starting side in place of Sione Katoa and Paul Alamoti.
Tyson Frizell returns at lock, Jason Taumalolo moves into the front row and Stefano Utoikamanu goes to the interchange. Siua Wong is back in the starting side, with Kulikefu Finefeuiaki dropping to the reserves.
No changes to Ben Gardiner's starting Samoa side. Jazz Tevaga is back on the interchange after missing the PNG game. Deine Mariner is listed among the reserves as he works back from the hamstring injury he suffered against France.
Verdict
Take either team by 1-12, the draw, and Fifita and Fa'alogo anytime.
1-12 pts
Either Team to Win by
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Draw
Result after 80 mins
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Jojo Fifita
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Sua Fa'alogo
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Ryan is an Australian sports content writer, producing insights and analysis for NRL, AFL and Basketball. He is also our YouTube host and presenter, can be found on Bets.com.au and is also a co-founder of The Sport Cap and The Basketball Fix.
From humble beginnings in Western Sydney growing up playing and refereeing Rugby League to running European wide Australian Rules Football tournaments there is a mountain of experience in between.
Multiple trips to North America has also deepened the love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for NRL.
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