2026 ATP Finals Betting Preview - Carlos Alcaraz the Undisputed Favourite in Italy
Carlos Alcaraz is tipped to win the ATP Finals, entering the tournament on a nine-match winning streak and benefiting from a favourable group draw that avoids key threats like Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton. Alcaraz faces Daniil Medvedev, Flavio Cobolli, and Frances Tiafoe in the Ivan Lendl Group, holding strong head-to-head records against each. While Medvedev is highlighted as a potential value outsider, Alcaraz’s recent form and advantageous draw make him the main recommendation for the outright title.
- Carlos Alcaraz is tipped to win the 2026 ATP Finals
- He has won nine straight matches and has a favourable draw
- Daniil Medvedev has an outside chance in Italy
The ATP Finals starts on Sunday with one thing is abundantly clear. Carlos Alcaraz is the man to beat.
Currently riding a nine match winning streak and claiming three title since his return from injury, he has also received a favourable draw in the eight player event.
With the home crowd favourite and defending champion Jannik Sinner withdrawing due to injury, the stage is set for Alcaraz to become the new king of the season finale.
Here is why the Spaniard is a deserved favourite to capture his maiden ATP Finals title, and how the rest of the field stacks up.
| John McEnroe Group | Ivan Lendl Group |
|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | Carlos Alcaraz |
| Ben Shelton | Daniil Medvedev |
| Arthur Fils | Flavio Cobolli |
| Rafael Jodar | Frances Tiafoe |
A Dream Draw for Alcaraz
Alcaraz enters the tournament at the top of the Ivan Lendl Group, avoiding World No.1 Alexander Zverev, a dangerous Ben Shelton and two big improvers this year, Arthur Fils and Rafael Jódar.
Instead, Alcaraz is grouped with Daniil Medvedev and two ATP Finals debutants, Flavio Cobolli and Frances Tiafoe.
For a player of Alcaraz's caliber, reaching the semi-finals should be mandatory. He owns a dominant 7-3 record against Medvedev, is 2-0 against Cobolli and 2-1 vs Tiafoe.
Even if Alcaraz falls to Medvedev, Cobolli enters the tournament with injury concerns and Tiafoe has historically struggled to find his peak form during the European indoor hard-court swing.
The Contenders - Who Can Derail the Spaniard?
While Alcaraz is the clear frontrunner, the John McEnroe Group features the players most likely to challenge him on indoor hard courts.
Alexander Zverev
The two-time ATP Finals champion (2018, 2021) has had a histroric year, winning the French Open, US Open and losing to Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon final.
The 29-year-old became World No.1 but wasn't able to maintain the momentum in Europe and hasn't reached a final since his victory in New York.
After losing four of his previous five encounters against Alcaraz, it's unlikely he can turn it around against the Spaniard in Turin.
Daniil Medvedev
The 2020 champion pushed Alcaraz to the brink in the Vienna semi-finals and has the defensive baseline game to frustrate anyone in Turin.
The temperamental Russian is clearly the second-best player in the Lendl group, is a threat to make a deep run and can be backed around 10-1.
Ben Shelton
The American is enjoying the best season of his career, winning four titles and climbing into the Top 5 after reached the US Open final.
He arrives in Italy fresh off a runner-up finish to Alcaraz at the Paris Masters. Shelton’s booming serve is difficult to break on fast indoor courts which makes him a fascinating dark horse.
Arthur Fils
The young Frenchman won the title in Barcelona before capturing his maiden Masters title in Cincinnati. He became a Top 10 player in September but like Cobolli, he enters Turin nursing lingering physical issues.
In a physical group alongside Zverev and Shelton, he is a risky proposition. Added to those worries is his 0-3 record against Alcaraz, including being dismantled 6-2 6-1 in Doha this year.
Rafael Jodar
Jodar climbed from 165 to 10 in the rankings this year, winning the title in Marrakech alongside final appearances in Washington and Shanghai.
The Spaniard has played a lot of tennis however and had some bizarre results, including a 6-2 6-1 6-1 defeat to Bu Yunchaokete in the US Open first round and 6-1 6-3 loss against Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in his opening match in Tokyo.
The 20-year-old has registered wins against Alex de Minaur and Medvedev, but is 2-5 against Top 10 players and deservedly a long shot to go all the way.
2026 ATP Finals Betting Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 1.91 |
| Alexander Zverev | 5.00 |
| Ben Shelton | 7.00 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 11.00 |
| Rafael Jodar | 11.00 |
| Arthur Fils | 13.00 |
| Frances Tiafoe | 23.00 |
| Flavio Cobolli | 34.00 |
Verdict
The odds are not great, but that's for a reason with everything lined up for Alcaraz to break through in Turin. Medvedev can get through the group stage and make an unlikely run to the final.
Carlos Alcaraz
Winner
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Daniil Medvedev
Winner
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