Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Betting Tips & Live Stream – Sabalenka Can Maintain Her Upper Hand in Berlin
Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula are set to clash in the semifinals in Berlin. Sabalenka narrowly escaped Bartunkova and is chasing her first grass-court final since 2022, despite not being at her best recently. Pegula, fresh from a straight-set win, continues her strong grass form, boasting a perfect record in grass semifinals. Historically, Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 9-3 and, while Pegula has been steadier, Sabalenka’s greater firepower makes her the favorite to reach the final.
- Sabalenka leads Pegula 9-3 in their rivalry
- Pegula unbeaten in grass-court semifinals (2-0)
- Sabalenka seen as favorite due to her greater power and history
Pegula may have been the steadier player this week, but Sabalenka’s firepower and higher ceiling make her the favorite to come out on top once again.
A Final Spot On The Line
- Sabalenka has not reached a grass-court final since 2022.
- She has won 10 of her last 11 matches against American opponents.
- Pegula holds a 2–0 record in grass-court semifinals.
- She owns an 8–8 record against Top 10 players in semifinals.
HTH - Aryna Sabalenka leads 9-3
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WTA Finals | Indoor Hard | - | Sabalenka | 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 |
| 2025 | Wuhan | Hard | SF | Pegula | 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(2) |
| 2025 | US Open | Hard | SF | Sabalenka | 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 2025 | Miami | Hard | F | Sabalenka | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 2024 | US Open | Hard | F | Sabalenka | 7-5, 7-5 |
| 2024 | Cincinnati WTA | Hard | F | Sabalenka | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 2023 | WTA Finals | Hard | - | Pegula | 6-4, 6-3 |
| 2022 | WTA Finals | Indoor Hard | - | Sabalenka | 6-3, 7-5 |
| 2022 | Rome WTA | Clay | R16 | Sabalenka | 6-1, 6-4 |
| 2021 | Madrid WTA | Clay | R16 | Sabalenka | 6-1, 6-2 |
| 2020 | French Open | Clay | 1R | Sabalenka | 6-3, 6-1 |
| 2020 | Cincinnati Masters (New York) | Hard | R16 | Pegula | 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 |
Sabalenka Escapes Against Bartunkova in Berlin
Aryna Sabalenka survived a major scare against Nikola Bartunkova to reach the semifinals in Berlin, 2-6, 7-6, 6-4. She trailed by a set and 0-4 at one stage before producing an incredible comeback to keep her title hopes alive.
This is her second consecutive semifinal appearance in Berlin. Last year, she also survived a tough three-set quarterfinal against Elena Rybakina before falling to eventual champion Marketa Vondrousova in the semifinals. She now has an opportunity to achieve her best result at the tournament.
The Belarusian will be relieved with this victory considering her recent tournaments have ended at or before the quarterfinal stage. Since the start of the clay swing, she has been unable to produce the deep runs that defined the early part of her season.
Sabalenka is now bidding to reach her first grass-court final since 2022. She enters this semifinal with a 2-4 career record at this stage on grass and is currently on a three-match losing streak in grass-court semifinals.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | Belarus |
| Age | 28 (5 May 1998) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| Height / Weight | 182 cm / 80 kg |
| World Ranking | 1 |
| Career High | 1 (11 September 2023) |
| Elo Ranking | 1 (Rating: 2230) |
| Tour level titles | 24 |
Pegula Returns to Berlin Semifinals
Jessica Pegula knocked out compatriot Madison Keys in straight sets to reach the semifinals in Berlin, 7-6, 7-6. She initially trailed 1-4 in the opening set before producing a strong comeback and eventually closing out the match in two tight tiebreak sets.
This is Pegula's second semifinal appearance in Berlin. Two years ago, she defeated Coco Gauff in straight sets at this stage before overcoming Anna Kalinskaya in the final to lift the title, her first tour-level grass-court trophy. She now has the opportunity to repeat that success this week.
The American has enjoyed another excellent season. Apart from a couple of early exits during the clay swing, she has reached at least the quarterfinals in nearly every tournament she has entered, including four semifinal-or-better finishes.
Pegula owns a 23-17 career record in tour-level semifinals. On grass, she is a perfect 2-0 at this stage and converted both of those runs into titles, highlighting her ability to make the most of opportunities on the surface.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Nationality | USA |
| Age | 32 (24 February 1994) |
| Plays | Right-handed |
| Height / Weight | 170 cm / 70 kg |
| World Ranking | 4 |
| Career High | 3 (24 October 2022) |
| Elo Ranking | 5 (Rating: 2086) |
| Tour level titles | 11 |
Verdict
Aryna Sabalenka has looked a little less convincing than Jessica Pegula this week, but her superior power and overall ability still give her the edge. Given her strong record in this rivalry, Sabalenka is well placed to extend her lead in the head-to-head.
Aryna Sabalenka
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He provides expert analysis, betting predictions and tournament guides as FreeTips' tennis editor. You will find him predicting the best games each day from the WTA Tour.
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Aryna Sabalenka v Jessica Pegula
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