ATP Race to Turin Betting: Can Cobolli, Medvedev and Fils Cash In This Week?

Tomasz Wilk

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Last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026 04:54

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Tomasz Wilk 52 minutes ago

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Sinner’s withdrawal opens up the Race to Turin
Cobolli, Medvedev and Fils in action this week
Final ATP Finals spots set to be decided in Paris

The race for the final ATP Finals spots in Turin has opened up after Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal (credit: Getty)

The Race to Turin as it stands
Title bets: where the value lies
Looking ahead to Paris

Jannik Sinner’s injury withdrawal from the ATP Finals has given the race for Turin an unexpected twist. Ninth place in the Race now earns a spot at the season finale, and several of the players fighting for the remaining places are among the top seeds in Lyon, Almaty and Brussels this week.

Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton have already confirmed their places, leaving five spots up for grabs. The outright markets at Stake suggest some of the contenders are in a much better position to boost their bids this week than others.

The Race to Turin as it stands

Flavio Cobolli sits fifth on 3,540 points, with Daniil Medvedev, Frances Tiafoe and Arthur Fils bunched behind him and only 45 points separating the three. Rafael Jódar holds the newly opened ninth place on 3,159. No one outside the top nine can break into the qualifying places this week.

The best anyone below can reach is Tommy Paul’s 2,825 with a Lyon title, and that still leaves him 334 points behind Jódar. This week is about building a cushion, or cutting a deficit, before the Paris Masters, where the final places are likely to be settled.

Rank	Player	Points	This Week
1	Alexander Zverev	9,150	Qualified
2	Jannik Sinner	7,950	Withdrawn (injury)
3	Carlos Alcaraz	4,600	Qualified
4	Ben Shelton	4,480	Qualified
5	Flavio Cobolli	3,540	Lyon (1st seed)
6	Daniil Medvedev	3,420	Almaty (1st seed)
7	Frances Tiafoe	3,380	Not playing
8	Arthur Fils	3,375	Brussels (1st seed)
9	Rafael Jódar	3,159	Not playing
–	Current cut-off
10	Alex de Minaur	2,880	Not playing
11	Novak Djokovic	2,840	Not playing
12	Tommy Paul	2,625	Lyon (4th seed)
13	Taylor Fritz	2,530	Lyon (2nd seed)

Live Race standings as of Thursday, October 22.

What a title would mean, and the odds of getting one

Player	Event	Current Points	With Title	Projected Rank*	Title Odds
Flavio Cobolli	Lyon	3,540	3,790	5	9.00
Daniil Medvedev	Almaty	3,420	3,660	5–6	3.00
Arthur Fils	Brussels	3,375	3,575	5–7	2.65
Tommy Paul	Lyon	2,625	2,825	12	4.50
Taylor Fritz	Lyon	2,530	2,780	12	3.80
Brandon Nakashima	Lyon	2,325	2,550	13–14	5.50
Jiří Lehečka	Brussels	2,225	2,450	17	4.50
Francisco Cerúndolo	Brussels	2,160	2,360	17	8.00
Karen Khachanov	Almaty	1,905	2,130	21	10.00
Alexander Bublik	Almaty	1,795	2,035	23	7.00

*Projected rank depends on results elsewhere. Odds courtesy of Stake.

Fils has the most to gain and is also the shortest-priced of the Race contenders at 2.65. A Brussels title would take him to 3,575 points, past Tiafoe, and Medvedev too unless the Russian wins Almaty. It would also give him a cushion of more than 400 points over Jódar going into Paris.

Medvedev is 3.00 to win Almaty. A title would take him to 3,660, enough to pass Cobolli for fifth unless the Italian reaches the Lyon final.

Cobolli is the surprise in the market. He’s the top seed in Lyon, yet he’s only fifth favourite at 9.00, behind Taylor Fritz, Paul, Brandon Nakashima and Lorenzo Musetti. A title would take him to 3,790, 410 points clear of Tiafoe.

Paul and Fritz are second and first favourites in Lyon respectively, but neither can reach the qualifying places this week. A title would still cut the gap to Jódar to 334 points for Paul and 379 for Fritz, which would at least give them a chance in Paris.

Title bets: where the value lies

Daniil Medvedev could climb to fifth in the Race to Turin if he defends his Almaty title (credit: Getty)

Almaty – Medvedev to win at 3.00

The draw has opened up for Medvedev. Second seed Luciano Darderi lost to James Duckworth, fourth seed Andrey Rublev went out to Adrian Mannarino, and sixth seed Tomás Martín Etcheverry has also been knocked out. Stefanos Tsitsipas (5.00), already in the quarterfinals, looks like the main danger, with Alexander Bublik (7.00) and Karen Khachanov (10.00) the other contenders.

Medvedev is 1.37 to reach the semifinals and 2.30 to reach the final. At 3.00, he’s the most appealing title bet among the Race contenders, and with only 45 points between him and Fils, he has every reason to take this week seriously.

Brussels – Fils to win at 2.65

Fils is already in the quarterfinals after a walkover from Jaume Munar, so he should be fresher than most of the remaining field. Seventh seed Botic van de Zandschulp and eighth seed Mariano Navone are both out. Jiří Lehečka (4.50), Alex Michelsen (6.50) and Francisco Cerúndolo (8.00) are the main threats left.

The Frenchman is also 2.10 just to reach the final. Given what’s at stake in the Race, backing him for the title at 2.65 looks a reasonable bet.

Lyon – Paul at 4.50, Cobolli the value outsider

Lyon is the most open event of the week, with six players priced at 10.00 or shorter. Fritz is the favourite at 3.80, but he still has a tricky test against home hope Pierre-Hugues Herbert, who beat him in their only previous meeting. Paul is already in the quarterfinals, where he faces Corentin Moutet, a player he leads 2-0 in their head-to-head. At 4.50, Paul looks the better option of the two Americans.

For an outsider, Cobolli at 9.00 is hard to ignore. He’s the top seed and has the strongest Race motivation of anyone in the draw, so the price looks generous.

Race contenders treble

If you want a bigger price, a treble on all three Race contenders winning this week — Cobolli in Lyon, Medvedev in Almaty and Fils in Brussels — pays around 71.55 at Stake.

Looking ahead to Paris

Tiafoe, Jódar, de Minaur and Djokovic are all sitting this week out and can only watch as the players around them gain ground. Whatever happens in Lyon, Almaty and Brussels, the remaining Turin places are likely to be decided at the Paris Masters, and Sinner’s withdrawal has made the fight for them more interesting.

Tomasz Wilk is a tennis analyst and betting strategist with a sharp eye for momentum shifts, underdog value and live markets. His work focuses on delivering actionable insights, match previews, and betting tips across ATP and WTA tours.

Combining data and intuition, he aims to help readers stay ahead of the curve in a fast-moving betting landscape.

You can find more from Tomasz at Muckrack.