Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Betting Tips & Live Stream - Alcaraz to Win in 4 Sets at the US Open
Tommy Paul faces Carlos Alcaraz in the fourth round of the 2026 US Open. While Paul has pushed Alcaraz on hard courts before, the Spaniard holds a 6-2 record in their head-to-head and enters as the strong favourite. Alcaraz’s current form and resilience make the prediction a 4-set win in his favour. Fans can live stream the match on Stake by creating an account and funding it. The article recommends betting markets such as over 35.5 total games and Alcaraz to win 3-1.
- Paul has proven he can stick with Alcaraz on hard courts
- Few are giving the American any chance at the US Open
- I am backing Alcaraz to come through in 4 sets in New York
Tommy Paul has met Carlos Alcaraz five times on hard courts, winning twice. Three of the previous six sets have gone to a tie break so I am turning to the total games market at the US Open.
| Tommy Paul | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Nationality | United States | Spain |
| Age | 29 (17 May 1997) | 23 (5 May 2003) |
| Height | 6'1" (1.85m) | 6'0" (1.83m) |
| Plays | Right-Handed | Right-Handed |
| Ranking | 21 | 3 |
| Career High | 8 (June 2025) | 1 (September 2022) |
| ATP Tour Titles | 5 | 26 |
| 2026 ATP Tour Titles | 1 | 2 |
| Grand Slam Titles | 0 | 7 |
| US Open Best Result | Fourth Round (2023, 2024) | Winner (2022, 2024) |
HTH
Carlos Alcaraz is 6-2 against Tommy Paul, going 3-2 on hard courts.
| Year | Event | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Alcaraz | 7-6 6-4 7-5 |
| 2025 | French Open | Clay | QF | Alcaraz | 6-0 6-1 6-4 |
| 2024 | Paris Olympics | Clay | QF | Alcaraz | 6-3 7-6 |
| 2024 | Wimbledon | Grass | QF | Alcaraz | 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2 |
| 2023 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R16 | Alcaraz | 7-6 6-7 6-3 |
| 2023 | Canada Masters | Hard | QF | Paul | 6-3 4-6 6-3 |
| 2023 | Miami Masters | Hard | R16 | Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Paul | 6-7 7-6 6-3 |
Paul Searching for First Quarter-Final in New York
Tommy Paul has reached four finals this year, losing in Delray Beach before claiming the title in Houston. He lost in Hamburg and again at Queen's Club.
The American has been battling on his return to hard courts, beating Alexander Zverev in Cincinnati before a fourth round defeat to Flavio Cobolli.
He needed 4 sets to get past Coleman Wong and Dino Prizmic at the US Open. Paul came home strong to beat Alexander Bublik 6-4 3-6 6-7 6-1 6-3, winning 60% of his 2nd serves and saving 5/7 break points.
Alcaraz Showing no Signs of Injury
Carlos Alcaraz is 25-3 this year, winning the Australian Open, Qatar Open and beaten by Jannik Sinner in the Monte Carlo final. He suffered a wrist injury in Barcelona and needed four months to recover.
The Spaniard had a strong start at the US Open, beating Roman Safiullin 6-4 6-4 6-4. He came from behind to beat Jaime Faria 4-6 6-0 6-3 6-2, winning 70% of his 2nd serves and saving 5/7 break points.
The World No.3 thrashed Yibing Wu 6-3 6-4 6-1 in the third round, hitting 21 winners, 33 unforced errors and saving 5/7 break points.
Alcaraz discussed his condition after the victory: “I am feeling better and better after every match. It feels like I have been competing the whole time. So it surprised me the way that I'm feeling and the way that I'm recovering after every match.”
“I'm just really happy about how I'm able to perform at my best after every match. Doesn't matter if I'm playing four or three sets. So I'm just really happy about it.”
How to Watch Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Live
- Event: 2026 US Open
- Round: Fourth Round
- Date: Sunday 6 September 2026
The Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz match at the 2026 US Open is available to stream live for registered users on Stake.
Stake is our top-recommended platform for watching tennis live online. They offer high-definition, low-latency streams alongside competitive in-play betting odds so you can follow every point in real time.
Steps to Stream the Match Live:
- Create an Account: Visit Stake.com via our official link to open an account.
- Fund Your Account: Make a minimum deposit using your preferred payment method.
- Locate the Match: Go to the Tennis tab under Live Events and select Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz.
- Start Streaming: Click the Live Stream icon on the match screen to open the video feed.*
*Geo-restrictions apply. Users must be 18+ and hold a funded account to view live streams. Please gamble responsibly.
Verdict
Tommy Paul has competed well with Carlos Alcaraz on hard courts and is more than capable of winning a set in New York. Alcaraz is the favourite for a reason however, the World No.3 to win in 4 sets.
Over 35.5 Games
Total Games
@5/6 - 3 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS
Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad
Over 10.5 Games
Set 1 Total Games
@23/10 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £10
Promo Code: NEWBONUS
New customers only. Bet £10+ to receive £10 in Free Bets. 7-day free bet expiry. Stake not returned. Promotional Terms Apply. 18+. GambleAware.org
Carlos Alcaraz Win 3-1
Set Betting
@5/2 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS
18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org
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