Essendon Bombers vs Sydney Swans AFL Betting Tips - Swans to dominate one-sided Round 23 game
The upcoming clash between Essendon Bombers and Sydney Swans is expected to be one-sided, with the Swans tipped to easily cover a 59.5-point line. Essendon have struggled against top-tier teams, losing their last four encounters by an average of 80 points and showing significant weaknesses in their midfield defense. Sydney, on the other hand, are in top form, averaging 138 points in their last three games. Key Swans players like Curnow, Papley, and Gulden are high-value picks for individual prop bets.
- Sydney tipped to cover the 59.5-point line vs Essendon
- Key player props: Curnow and Papley (goals), Gulden (disposals)
- Essendon struggle against top teams, averaging 80-point losses
Essendon Bombers vs Sydney Swans Verdict
Sydney should dominate and cover a 59.5-point line in one of the most one-sided affairs in Round 23. Essendon have lost their past four matches against top-six opposition by an average of 80 points and this could get ugly.
Charlie Curnow kicked five goals last weekend and is backed for more of the same against the Bombers.
- Essendon have lost their past four against top-six sides by an average of 80 points.
- The Swans are averaging 138 points in their past three matches.
- Charlie Curnow kicked five goals last weekend, while Errol Gulden had 39 disposals.
- Tom Papley has kicked 14 goals in his past six matches against Essendon.
Head to Head Stats
Sydney took out the most recent meeting by 14 points in Round 21 last season at the SCG. They have won four of the past five between the two sides.
Essendon and Sydney have not met at the MCG since Round 16 in 2022, when the Dons recorded a nine-point win.
Essendon Bombers Form
Essendon's difficult season has continued over the past three weeks against Hawthorn, Adelaide and Geelong. Last week, it was a 67-point loss at the hands of the Cats and they are anchored at the bottom of the ladder with a 2-19 win-loss record.
Perhaps the biggest concern heading into this match is Essendon's inability to slow opposition midfielders.
The Bombers concede more disposals than any side in the competition, regularly allowing elite ball users to accumulate uncontested possession through the corridor.
They were beaten in this area by the Cats, despite the work of Zach Merrett (29 disposals) and Dyson Sharp (27).
Archie Perkins was the Bombers' only multiple goalkicker with two majors in the 7.8 (50) scoreline. In their past six matches, the Dons are averaging just 53 points per game.
Sydney Swans Form
Sydney come into Round 23 with a 16-5 win-loss record and are building strongly towards September. They thrashed Port Adelaide by 97 points last weekend, with Errol Gulden collecting 39 disposals and now averaging 38 across his past three matches.
The Swans have a 6-4 record away from home this season, although this will be just their second trip to the MCG, having lost to Hawthorn by 17 points at the venue in Round 2.
They have been ruthless against the competition's bottom four, winning three of their four matches against those sides by 97 points or more.
Sydney have plenty of players hitting form, with Nick Blakey recording 28 disposals in each of his past two matches.
Coleman Medal leader Charlie Curnow has kicked 12 goals across the past three rounds, while Logan McDonald has booted 10 in the same period, giving the Swans two in-form key targets heading into this match.
Verdict
Swans to record a big win with Curnow, Papley and Gulden all backed in the player props markets.
Sydney -61.5
Line
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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