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Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Demons AFL Betting Tips - Dees to deliver and put the Power out in Round 23

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 13 Aug 2026 09:35

Adam Cusworth 13 Aug 2026

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Melbourne expected to beat Port Adelaide convincingly and cover the line
Port Adelaide has lost last three vs top-six teams by average 65 points
Recommendation: Back Melbourne, bet over total points, and Harrison Petty 3+ goals

Expired

Harrison Petty to continue his goalscoring form (Getty Images)

Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Demons Verdict
Head to Head Stats
Port Adelaide Form
Melbourne Demons Form
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Team News

Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Demons Verdict

Melbourne Demons are backed to claim a comfortable win over Port Adelaide on the road and boost their top four hopes. Power have have lost their past three matches against top-six opposition by an average of 65 points, so take the Dees to cover the line.

Port Adelaide have lost their past three matches to top-six sides by an average margin of 65 points.
The Demons have a 14-7 win-loss record, while the Power are 6-15.
The Power have conceded an average of 132 points in their past three matches against top-six sides, with the total points in those matches averaging over 200.
Harrison Petty has kicked 3+ goals in each of his past three matches.

Head to Head Stats

Melbourne have taken out the past two matches between the two sides and were 25-point winners in the most recent head to head, with that coming at Adelaide Oval in Round 14 last season.

They have won two of the past three against the Power at the venue.

Port Adelaide Form

Port Adelaide have a 6-15 win-loss record and come off their worst defeat of the season, a 97-point hiding at the hands of Sydney.

Their defence has held up for much of the season, but the floodgates opened against the Swans, conceding 167 points to 70.

The absence of Zak Butters has hurt in the middle. Jase Burgoyne chalked up 34 disposals against the Swans, while Willem Drew registered 34. Jack Whitlock kicked three goals, while Jason Horne-Francis and Corey Durdin each kicked two.

Port Adelaide have an 8-4 win-loss record at Adelaide Oval this season. The total points in their past three at the venue have averaged just 160, but the Power have conceded an average of 132 points in their last three matches against top-six sides.

Melbourne Demons Form

Melbourne have won five of their past six matches, with their only loss in that period coming against Geelong three weeks ago.

They were four-point winners over the Dockers last weekend, compiling another 100+ score. They are averaging 109 points per game in their past six matches.

A slight question mark surrounding the Demons is their form away from the MCG, with their win-loss record reading 4-6 when not playing at the home of footy.

They have lost both of their matches at Adelaide Oval this season, with those coming against Essendon by 45 points during Gather Round and against Adelaide in Round 15 by 17.

Melbourne lifted when the game was on the line last weekend, scoring five goals to three in the final term. Kozzy Pickett finished with 27 disposals and two goals, while Tom Sparrow chalked up 24 and two.

Sparrow has had 24+ in his past six matches, while Jake Bowey has reached that mark in his past five.

Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Team News

Concerns remain over Port Adelaide's Jason Horne-Francis after the star midfielder hyperextended his knee during the final quarter against Sydney.

Joe Richards is a chance to return, while Hugh Bamert was a late withdrawal through illness against the Swans and is expected to be available.

Intrigue surrounds the availability of Zak Butters, who has been progressing in his recovery from injury.

Melbourne reported no injuries from the win over Fremantle, giving Steven King a healthy group.

With Max Gawn getting through the match and playing the entire final term in the ruck, the Demons should otherwise have strong availability following the four-point win.

Verdict

Port Adelaide v Melbourne Demons

Demons to open game right up and cover the line. Total Points to go over and Harrison Petty can continue strong form in front of goal.

Melbourne -25.5

Line

@7/8 - 1 Unit

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Bet at bet365

Over 182.5

Total Points

@6/7 - 1 Unit

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Bet at dabble

Harrison Petty 3+

Multi Goalscorers

@13/8 - 1 Unit

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Bet at Star Sports

One of Australia's top tipsters, Adam provides tips for horse racing every day of the week as well as AFL previews. He is one of the top ranked experts on the Great Tip Off each month and has featured on Blackbook, Punters, Racingbase and many more.

Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.