Hawthorn vs Collingwood Tips - Hawks escape in a Saturday night blockbuster at the MCG
Hawthorn faces a critical clash against Collingwood at the MCG, needing a win to stay in the top four amidst strong competition. While Collingwood is hitting offensive form and remains solidly in the finals mix, they've struggled against higher-ranked teams. Key players to watch include Jai Newcombe accumulating 25+ disposals and Connor Macdonald presenting value for multiple goals. Both teams are nearly at full strength, setting up a tight battle where Hawthorn's class and forward efficiency could prove decisive.
- Hawthorn must win to keep their top-four AFL spot.
- Collingwood is in strong form but struggles against higher-ranked sides.
- Newcombe (25+ disposals) & Macdonald (2+ goals) are key player picks.
Hawthorn vs Collingwood Preview
The Saturday night blockbuster will go right down to the wire, with Hawthorn set to scrape through in front of a huge crowd at the MCG.
There is considerably more at stake for the Hawks, who need to win to remain in the top four with Brisbane, Melbourne and Adelaide all breathing down their neck.
Collingwood are safely inside the wildcard zone in eighth and would need a minor miracle to climb into the top six, but their recent form makes them dangerous. The Magpies have won seven of their past eight and are finding another gear offensively, while their system held up impressively despite a depleted side in last weekend’s 117-98 win over West Coast.
Hawthorn were comprehensively outplayed by Brisbane last weekend, but their best football remains good enough to win this. The Hawks need to rediscover the intensity that had them sitting inside the top four and, importantly, take their chances in front of goal. Collingwood have shown they can absorb pressure and defend crucial moments, so Hawthorn cannot afford to waste opportunities and allow the Magpies to hang around.
Expect the Hawks’ midfield to respond in the Round 23 clash, with Jai Newcombe 25+ disposals a strong play, while Connor Macdonald 2+ goals offers value. Macdonald has been in excellent form playing predominantly across half-forward with bursts through the midfield, giving him opportunities to impact the scoreboard. Hawthorn’s class can ultimately be the difference in a tight contest.
- Collingwood have won just one of nine matches against sides above them on the ladder this season.
- The Hawks have won their past three at the MCG by an average of 76 points.
- Jai Newcombe has had 25+ disposals in five of his past six matches against Collingwood.
- Connor McDonald kicked three goals in the Round 8 match between the two sides this season.
Head to Head
The two sides fought out a remarkable draw in Round 8 this season with Hawthorn dominating the inside 50 count and scoring shots in the 13.15.93 to 15.3.93 scoreline but at the same time being lucky to escape with at least two points after a Dylan Moore goal after the siren.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:
- Jai Newcombe (Hawks)- 25+ disposals in five of his past six against Collingwood.
- Jack Ginnivan (Hawks)- averaging 28 disposals in his past four matches against his former side.
- Will Day (Hawks)- 25+ disposals in his past two against Collingwood.
- Nick Daicos (Pies)- 30+ disposals in two of his past three against the Hawks.
Hawthorn Form Analysis
Hawthorn come into Round 23 off a disappointing 67-point loss to Brisbane at the GABBA, going down 125-58 after being outclassed following a competitive opening quarter. The Hawks had won their previous three matches against Essendon, North Melbourne and Richmond, but the step up against the reigning premiers proved significant.
Hawthorn still generated opportunities against Brisbane, winning the clearance count and having periods where they controlled the game, but their inability to convert proved costly. They missed several opportunities early and kicked four consecutive behinds to begin the third quarter before Brisbane responded at the other end. The Hawks will need to be much more clinical against a Collingwood side that have proven difficult to put away.
Jai Newcombe remains a key figure through the midfield and shapes as a strong 25+ disposal option, while Connor Macdonald has been in a rich vein of form playing predominantly across half-forward with the ability to rotate through the midfield. Hawthorn’s forward mix has plenty of scoring options, but they will need to make the most of their opportunities after being restricted to just eight goals against Brisbane.
Hawthorn Team News
Hawthorn reported no injuries from the loss to Brisbane and were close to full strength for the contest. The Hawks will assess their options ahead of the Collingwood clash, with the opportunity to respond quickly from their heaviest defeat in some time as they fight to retain their place in the top four.
Collingwood Form Analysis
Collingwood have won seven of their past eight matches, rebounding from a 25-point loss to Geelong in their previous visit to the MCG with a 19-point win over West Coast in Perth. The Magpies found another gear offensively in the 117-98 shootout and have been more attacking of late, averaging 95 points across their past six matches, with the total points in those matches averaging 176.
Nick Daicos had 39 disposals against the Eagles and has recorded 30+ disposals in eight of his past 10 matches. Josh Daicos collected 35 and has had 25+ in seven of his past nine, while Lachie Schultz, Tim Membrey and Dan McStay each kicked three goals. McStay has booted 18 goals in his past six matches, while Membrey has kicked 2+ in seven of his past eight.
Collingwood have managed just one win and a draw from nine matches against sides above them on the ladder this season, which remains a concern heading into another clash with a top-four opponent. The Magpies have been much stronger at the MCG, recording seven wins, three losses and a draw at the venue in 2026.
Collingwood Team News
Collingwood reported no new injuries from the win over West Coast, despite entering the match without Jeremy Howe, Pat Lipinski, Jordan De Goey, Harry Perryman and Scott Pendlebury. The Magpies will hope to regain some experience for the clash with Hawthorn, with the availability of that group to become clearer during the week.
Verdict
Hawks in a close one with Newcombe to find plenty of footy, McDonald value for 2+ goals
Hawthorn 1-24
Winning Margin
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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