Richmond vs St Kilda Tips - Saints to scrape through as wildcard hopes hang by a thread
St Kilda’s wildcard ambitions are on thin ice as they face Richmond at the MCG in Round 23. The Saints must win to keep their finals hopes alive, while Richmond, playing for pride, have shown recent resilience. Expect a scrappy, low-scoring affair, particularly with St Kilda missing key distributor Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera. Richmond are tipped to cover the 22.5-point start; Tim Taranto is in strong form for 25+ disposals, and the total points are likely to stay under. Back Richmond on the line and focus on player props in a defensive battle.
- St Kilda must win to remain in wildcard contention; Richmond playing for pride.
- Expect a defensive, low-scoring battle—back Tigers +22.5 and match points under.
- Tim Taranto strong for 25+ disposals; key Saints ruled out.
Richmond vs St Kilda Preview
- Richmond vs St Kilda Preview
- Head to Head
- Richmond Form Analysis
- Richmond Team News
- St Kilda Form Analysis
- St Kilda Team News
St Kilda’s wildcard hopes hang by a thread and they are set to just scrape through in an MCG grind against Richmond on Saturday.
The Saints are two games behind Carlton and must win their final two matches while hoping the Blues lose both, leaving no margin for error. Richmond are playing purely for pride in 17th spot, but the Tigers have shown enough fight to make this far more uncomfortable for St Kilda than the 22.5-point line suggests.
Richmond’s best chance is to turn this into a territory and pressure battle rather than allowing St Kilda to control the ball on the outside. The Tigers have shown they can lock the ball in their forward half through pressure and repeat entries, while their defence has become increasingly capable of absorbing opposition attacks. St Kilda can struggle to convert periods of forward-half dominance into scoreboard damage, which should give Richmond opportunities to remain within touching distance even if the Saints control more of the play.
The absence of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is also significant to how St Kilda will move the ball in the Round 23 clash. Bradley Hill will be asked to provide plenty of the distribution from defence, but without Wanganeen-Milera the Saints lose one of their best players at breaking lines and creating attacking opportunities. Richmond should look to pressure the Saints into slower movement and force them wide, making this more of an arm-wrestle than an open contest.
That points towards another low-scoring affair at the MCG. Richmond average just 64 points this season and have regularly struggled to turn territory and inside 50s into goals, while St Kilda are averaging only 79 across their past four. With the Tigers likely to prioritise pressure and territory and the Saints missing some important run, the total match points under appeals strongly.
Tim Taranto should again be at the centre of Richmond’s work around the contest. The Tigers will need their experienced midfielders winning contested ball and helping keep the game played in tight, and Taranto’s ability to accumulate through stoppage and around the ground makes 25+ disposals the standout player prop. He has reached that mark in six of his past seven.
St Kilda should ultimately find a way to keep their season alive, but this has all the ingredients of a scrap rather than a blowout. Back Richmond with the 22.5-point start, the total match points under and Taranto for 25+ disposals.
- The total points in the MCG match between the two sides at a similar stage last season was just 108.
- Richmond’s past four matches against sides ranked 10th or lower have been decided by 18 points or less.
- The Saints are averaging 79 points per game in their past four, while Richmond average just 64 in 2026.
- Tim Taranto has had 25+ disposals in six of his past seven matches.
Head to Head
St Kilda have won the past six matches between the two sides, including the Round 10 fixture earlier this year by 36 points at Marvel Stadium. The Saints won by just four points in the corresponding fixture at the MCG in a low-scoring scrap (56-52).
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:
- Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (Saints)- 33 disposals in his most recent outing against the Tigers.
- Callum Wilkie (Saints)- 25+ disposals in his past two against the Tigers.
- Mitch Owens (Saints)- four goals in his most recent match against Richmond.
- Cooper Sharman (Saints)- two goals in each of his past four against the Tigers.
Richmond Form Analysis
Richmond came agonisingly close to one of their best wins of the season, leading Adelaide by 13 points during the third quarter before eventually falling 63-54 in difficult conditions at Adelaide Oval.
The Tigers generated plenty of opportunities, including 17 inside 50s in the final term, but poor conversion proved costly, with Tom Lynch missing three gettable chances and Sam Lalor missing a late set shot that would have put Richmond ahead.
The Tigers were winners against West Coast at the MCG the week before but have claimed victory on just three occasions in 2026 to sit with a 3-18 win-loss record. Ten of the 18 losses have been by more than a 39-point margin, while they average just 64 points per game in 2026.
Richmond Team News
There were no injuries for the Tigers to come out of the close loss to Adelaide. Judson Clarke played his first match in over two years and was serviceable with 13 disposals. A number of Richmond players are done for the season. Noah Balta is a chance to return from a toe injury, while Luke Trainor has served his suspension and is available.
St Kilda Form Analysis
St Kilda head into Round 23 with a 9-12 record after suffering a 44-point loss to Carlton last weekend, their second consecutive defeat following a 19-point loss to Sydney. Their wildcard hopes are now hanging by a thread, with the Saints needing to win their final two matches and Carlton to lose both of theirs to have any chance of climbing into the top 10.
Despite their struggles against the competition's better sides, St Kilda have been extremely reliable against teams below them on the ladder, recording an 8-1 record in those matches this season. Six of those eight victories have come by fewer than 39.5 points. The Saints play at the MCG for just the third time this season, having opened the year with two losses at the venue, going down by 12 points to Collingwood and 13 points to Melbourne.
Bradley Hill was outstanding in defeat against Carlton with 31 disposals, while Max Hall continued his impressive form with 30 disposals, 10 clearances and two goals. Hill has now recorded 30+ disposals in five of his past seven matches at an average of 33, while Hall has had 25+ in two of his past three and kicked five goals across the past two rounds. Mitch Owens was St Kilda's other multiple goalkicker against Carlton with two and has now kicked two goals in two of his past three matches.
St Kilda Team News
St Kilda will be forced into at least two changes after Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera suffered a left hamstring injury and Mason Wood was ruled out with a calf injury against Carlton. Wanganeen-Milera is unlikely to play again during the home-and-away season, while Liam Ryan and Tom De Koning were also hampered by shoulder issues but played on. Alix Tauru, Dan Butler and Jack Carroll are among a number of players that performed well in the VFL last weekend and will be given consideration.
Verdict
Take the Tigers with the start in a match where the total points is set to go under. Taranto strong for 25+ disposals.
Richmond
Handicap +22.5
@7/8 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS
Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.
Under 160.5
Pick Your Own Total
@13/10 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS
Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad
Tim Taranto
To Have 25+ disposals
@17/11 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS
18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org
Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
Top Betting Sites
Betting offers
Upcoming Events
08 May 2026
- WNBA 2026 -
- Basketball
09 July 2026
- VCT 2026 China Stage 2 -
- Esports
15 July 2026
Load More
Sports Tips Starts in
Today's Acca Tips
-
Soccer tips
-
Tennis tips
