Fremantle vs Adelaide Crows Tips - Crows top four hopes fade as Dockers reign supreme in the west
Fremantle returns home aiming to rebound from their third loss of the season with a victory over Adelaide, which would significantly dent the Crows' top-four aspirations. The Dockers are unbeaten at Optus Stadium this season and have showcased elite defense, conceding under 60 points per home match. Expect a closely contested and low-scoring game, with Fremantle favored by 1-39 points and the total points likely under key thresholds. Key players include Fremantle's Serong (25+ disposals) and Adelaide's Rankine (30+ in three of his last five games).
- Fremantle remains unbeaten at Optus Stadium in 2026 and is set to end Adelaide’s top-four chances.
- Low-scoring, tight contest expected; Dockers favored by 1-39 points and total points likely under.
- Serong (Freo) and Rankine (Adelaide) are key players to watch for high disposals.
Fremantle vs Adelaide Crows Preview
Fremantle will bounce back from just their third loss of the season with a win over Adelaide and all but end the Crows' hopes of finishing in the top four.
The Dockers are safe in top position with just one match in the home-and-away season to follow, but don't expect them to take their foot off the pedal back at Optus Stadium, where they are unbeaten in 2026. Adelaide sit fifth and are level on points with fourth-placed Brisbane and sixth-placed Melbourne, making a win crucial to their hopes of securing the double chance.
This should be a much tighter and lower-scoring contest than Fremantle's shootout with Melbourne. The Dockers have been outstanding defensively at Optus Stadium, conceding under 60 points per game, while their ability to control territory and patiently break down opposition makes Fremantle to win by 1-39 points the preferred play. Adelaide bring strong contest and pressure and have travelled well this season, so they should be capable of keeping this competitive.
The numbers also point towards the total points going under in the Round 23 match, with Fremantle's past four matches at Optus Stadium averaging just 141 points and Adelaide's past four against top-six opposition averaging 147. Caleb Serong is one to consider in the player props for 25+ disposals, having reached that mark in four of his past six matches and recording 28+ in each of his past four against Adelaide.
- Adelaide have won just one of four matches against top four sides in 2026.
- The total points in Adelaide’s past four matches against top six sides has averaged just 147.
- The total points in the Dockers' past four matches at Optus Stadium has averaged just 141.
- Caleb Serong has had 25+ disposals in four of his past six matches and 28+ in his past four against Adelaide.
Head to Head
Fremantle have won the past three between the two sides and were two-point winners over the Crows in Round 4 this season. They have won all three matches between the two sides at Optus Stadium.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:
- Andrew Brayshaw (Freo)- 25+ disposals in six of his past seven against Adelaide
- Caleb Serong (Freo)- 32 in the most recent meeting and 28+ in his past four.
- Jye Amiss (Freo)- eight goals in his past three matches against Adelaide
- Wayne Milera (Crows)- 27 disposals in the Round 4 match against the Dockers this season.
Fremantle Form Analysis
Fremantle suffered just their third loss for the season last weekend, going down to Melbourne by four points in a high-scoring MCG thriller (109-113). They remain on top of the ladder with an 18-3 win-loss record.
The Dockers return to Optus Stadium and have a perfect record of 11 wins from as many matches at the venue in 2026, with those wins coming at an average of 38 points. They are conceding under 60 points per game at Optus, with the total points averaging 135.
Against Melbourne, the absence of captain Alex Pearce was significant defensively, with Melbourne taking 14 marks inside 50 and Fremantle struggling both aerially and at ground level, despite an excellent attacking performance that produced 17.7 and nine combined goals from Jye Amiss and Pat Voss. Amiss and Josh Treacy have both kicked 16 goals from their past five matches.
Fremantle Team News
Fremantle reported no injuries from the four-point loss to Melbourne, leaving the Dockers in good shape heading into this match. Pearce was managed for the trip to Melbourne rather than sidelined by injury and is expected to come straight back in.
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Adelaide have won five of their past six matches and showed their resilience again last week, overcoming a 13-point third-quarter deficit to defeat Richmond by nine points in difficult conditions. They were well below their best but found a way to win, with Izak Rankine outstanding with a career-high 37 disposals and 12 clearances, while Jordan Dawson collected 35 disposals.
The Crows have also travelled well this season, holding an impressive 6-3 record in away matches, including a 16-point victory over Sydney at the SCG last month. This shapes as a much tougher test, however, with Adelaide winning just one of four matches against current top-four sides this season.
Rankine is in exceptional form, recording 30+ disposals in three of his past five matches and 23+ in his past six, while Dawson has topped 30 in each of his past two. Adelaide also have plenty of firepower: Taylor Walker has kicked 12 goals across his past four matches, while Darcy Fogarty kicked 17 goals in his four matches before serving his three-game suspension.
Adelaide Crows Team News
Adelaide came through the Richmond win without any new injuries and should regain several players for the trip to face Fremantle. Darcy Fogarty is available after completing his three-match suspension, while the Crows are also hopeful of regaining defensive reinforcements after going into last week undersized, with Mark Keane, Nick Murray and Jordon Butts unavailable. Reilly O'Brien strengthened his selection claims with 35 hit-outs against Richmond, creating another decision around the ruck setup.
Verdict
Fremantle in the 1-39 bracket with the total points under. Serong 25+ disposals
Fremantle 1-39
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Caleb Serong 25+
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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