Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Tips - Carlton's stunning resurgence to take a wild turn
Carlton seeks to cement a top 10 spot and continue their remarkable turnaround under Josh Fraser with a win over the Western Bulldogs in Round 23. The Blues' pressure, quick transitions, and diverse forward options give them a crucial edge, particularly against a vulnerable Bulldogs defence. Key recommendations are for Carlton to win, Harry McKay to kick 3+ goals, and Jagga Smith to collect 25+ disposals. With both teams capable of piling on points, expect a high-scoring and competitive match, but Carlton's momentum is hard to ignore.
- Carlton tipped to beat Western Bulldogs and secure a top 10 spot.
- Expect a high-scoring match with McKay (3+ goals) and Smith (25+ disposals) as key standouts.
- Blues' pressure and transition game give them the edge.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Preview
- Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Preview
- Head to Head
- Western Bulldogs Form Analysis
- Western Bulldogs Team News
- Carlton Form Analysis
- Carlton Team News
Carlton will cap off a stunning rise with a win over the Bulldogs, locking in a top 10 spot and completing one of the most remarkable mid-season turnarounds of 2026.
The stakes are simple for the Blues — win and they are safely into the wildcard round. The Bulldogs are already guaranteed a top 10 finish and could remarkably meet Carlton again in a fortnight, but the Blues look the better equipped of the two sides heading into this clash.
Carlton’s ability to apply pressure and then attack quickly from turnover can expose a Bulldogs defensive structure that has looked vulnerable when possession changes hands. The Dogs can be aggressive with their positioning and numbers around the ball, but that can leave space behind them when their forward pressure breaks down. Carlton have the speed and ball use through the middle to attack that space, while their increasingly even spread of contributors makes them difficult to shut down by targeting one or two players.
The Blues also have a significant aerial threat inside 50. Harry McKay can stretch the Bulldogs defence both as a marking target and by bringing the ball to ground, where Carlton’s smaller forwards can go to work. With the Dogs vulnerable when opponents generate clean entries and isolate their defenders, McKay should get enough opportunities to kick 3+ goals.
The midfield battle should be much tighter, but Jagga Smith’s ability to win his own ball and then impact offensively makes 25+ disposals appealing. Rather than simply accumulating across half-back, Smith can hurt the Dogs around stoppage and on transition, particularly if the game opens up and Carlton can get their running game going through the corridor.
There should be plenty of scoring opportunities at both ends in the Round 23 match. The Bulldogs still possess enough midfield and forward-half quality to challenge Carlton, but their willingness to attack can also create the open game the Blues currently thrive in. Expect momentum swings and periods where both sides score heavily, making the total match points over the play.
Carlton have more riding on the result, but more importantly their pressure, transition game and multiple avenues to goal match up particularly well against the Dogs. Back the Blues to win, McKay to kick 3+ goals and Smith to collect 25+ disposals in a high-scoring contest.
- Carlton have won 10 of their past 12 matches.
- The total points in Carlton’s past three matches at Marvel Stadium has averaged 197.
- Jagga Smith is averaging 27.5 disposals in the past four rounds and had 25 against the Dogs earlier this season.
- Harry McKay has kicked three goals in each of his past two matches
Head to Head
Carlton were 12-point winners over the Bulldogs earlier this season in what was their first game under Josh Fraser, which followed the sacking of Michael Voss. The Bulldogs won three in a row prior to that. The past six between the two sides have been decided by 20 points or less.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:
- Sam Walsh (Blues)- 25+ disposals in his past five matches against the Dogs.
- Jagga Smith (Blues)- 25 disposals in his only match against the Bulldogs.
- Harry McKay (Blues)- five goals in his past two matches against the Bulldogs.
- Tom Liberatore (Dogs)- 30 disposals in his most recent match against the Blues.
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis
The Bulldogs have lost two in a row, coming off a 23 point loss to North Melbourne last weekend when they were punished for a slow start, while allowing North to generate 19 marks inside 50 across the match.
They fought back strongly through Marcus Bontempelli and Ed Richards, but North’s ability to score from forward-half stoppages and transition too easily from the Bulldogs’ forward 50 proved decisive in the 23-point loss.
Bontempelli and Richards both had 25+ disposals. Richards has hit that mark in his past three, while the ‘Bont’ has in five of his past eight, going at one goal per game in that period. Aaron Naughton kicked two against the Kangaroos but the Dogs have struggled for scoreboard impact in the latter half of 2026, averaging just 73 points per game in the past two months, a figure that is inflated by their score of 105 against Richmond three weeks back.
Western Bulldogs Team News
Tim English finished the game on the sidelines after hurting his knee late in the final quarter against North Melbourne and a decision on his availability will be made during the week. The Dogs continue to miss the drive of Bailey Dale in the back half, while Connor Budarick is another that remains on the sidelines.
Carlton Form Analysis
Carlton have now won 10 of their 12 matches since Josh Fraser took over and, alongside Fremantle, boast the best win-loss record in the competition during that period. The Blues continued their remarkable turnaround with a 44-point win over St Kilda last weekend, controlling the ball and finding space through the middle on their way to a comfortable 106-62 victory.
That followed their stunning 76-point demolition of Brisbane, with Carlton’s attack exploding in recent weeks. The Blues have averaged 123 points per game across the past three rounds and 122 points in their past four matches at Marvel Stadium, with the total points in those four matches averaging 197. Their improved attack has been complemented by their pressure and defence, with a much more even contribution across the side.
Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps and George Hewett each collected 26 disposals against St Kilda. Walsh has now recorded 25+ disposals in each of his past five matches, Cripps has reached that mark in three of his past four, while Hewett has had 24+ in four straight. Harry McKay has kicked three goals in each of the past two rounds, while Brodie Kemp has booted seven across the same period as Carlton’s forward line continues to fire.
Carlton Team News
Carlton reported no injuries from the win over St Kilda, with Harry McKay managed for periods during the second half but cleared of any concern. Jacob Weitering successfully returned through the VFL and will come into consideration for a senior recall after getting valuable game time under his belt. The Blues suddenly have some selection pressure as they push towards the wildcard round, particularly in defence where youngsters Harry Dean and Wade Derksen have performed strongly in Weitering’s absence.
Verdict
Take Carlton in the head to head with the total points to go over. Big Harry on for 3+ goals and Smith 25+ disposals
Carlton
Win
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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