Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Tips - Wounded Cats to claw St Kilda at the Cattery
Geelong Cats will look to bounce back against St Kilda at GMHBA Stadium after a tough run of injuries and recent losses. Despite dropping recent matches, Geelong has shown strong attacking play and continues to generate numerous scoring opportunities at home, where they have a dominant recent record. St Kilda bring an in-form midfield but have struggled away, failing to defeat teams above them. The recommendation is Geelong to win (by 1-39 points), total match points to go over, and Shaun Mannagh to kick multiple goals.
- Geelong Cats tipped to win at home; strong record vs St Kilda.
- Total match points likely to go over, expect an attacking game.
- Shaun Mannagh predicted as a multiple goal scorer.
Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Preview
- Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Preview
- Head to Head
- Geelong Cats Form Analysis
- Geelong Cats Team News
- St Kilda Form Analysis
- St Kilda Team News
The wounded Cats will bounce back with a win in the familiar surrounds of the Cattery with the total match points to go over.
The Cats have dropped five of their past six matches and come home with a stack of injury concerns but their performances haven't been as poor as the results suggest.
Despite going down to Brisbane at their most recent home match a fortnight ago before surrendering a 39-point lead against GWS last weekend when going down by 13, the Cats have continued to generate plenty of inside 50s and scoring opportunities.
Against a Saints side that has won just two of eight matches away from Marvel Stadium and is yet to defeat a team above them on the ladder this season, Geelong should be able to dictate play.
The total points also appeals. Geelong's past five matches at GMHBA Stadium have produced an average of 197 total points, while both sides possess plenty of attacking weapons capable of taking advantage of scoring opportunities.
St Kilda's improved midfield ball movement has seen the likes of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Bradley Hill and Hugo Garcia rack up huge disposal numbers in recent weeks and that supply inside 50 will see the Saints kick a competitive total, while the Cats rarely struggle to score at home.
Shaun Mannagh looks one of the best player markets in the Round 19 clash. The mature-age forward has become a genuine scoring threat, kicking four goals last week while continuing to spend increased time around the ball. With Jeremy Cameron unavailabile, extra responsibility falls on Shannon Neale but it is the ground level players that loom as a genuine threat inside the Cats forward 50 with Mannagh shaping as a strong chance to kick at least two goals and is capable of finishing with three or more if the Cats dominate territory as expected.
Take Geelong in the 1-39 point bracket with the total match points to hit the over, while Mannage is on for multiple goals.
- Geelong have won 10 of their past 11 at GMHBA Stadium.
- The Saints have not defeated Geelong at the venue since 1999
- Shaun Mannagh kicked four goals last weekend and has booted five in two outings against the Saints
- The total points in Geelong’s past five matches at the venue has averaged 197
Head to Head
Geelong were 31 point winners in the corresponding match last season at GMHBA Stadium and have won their past 13 against St Kilda at the venue, a sequence that stretches back to 1999. St Kilda have won two of the past three against the Cats but those victories were at Marvel Stadium.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;
- Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (Saints)- 36 disposals in his most recent meeting against Geelong.
- Jack Sinclair (Saints)- averaging over 30 disposals in his past four matches against the Cats
- Jeremy Cameron (Cats)- Five goals in the most recent head to head
- Mitch Owens (Saints)- two goals in each of his past three matches against Geelong
- Shaun Mannagh (Cats)- five goals in his past two outings against the Saints
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Geelong head into Round 19 sitting 9th on the ladder with a 9-8 record but will welcome the return to GMHBA Stadium after a difficult stretch that has seen them lose five of their past six matches. The Cats let a 39-point lead slip against GWS last weekend, conceding nine of the final 10 goals to fall by 13 points. Despite the disappointing finish, they still generated 60 inside 50s to the Giants' 53, showing they continue to create plenty of scoring opportunities.
Shaun Mannagh was outstanding with four goals and 33 disposals, while Ollie Dempsey kicked three majors. Max Holmes continued his outstanding season with 34 disposals, his fourth game of 30 or more in his past five, while Bailey Smith collected 32 touches to extend his run to seven 30+ disposal games in his past eight. Dempsey has now kicked at least two goals in each of his past two matches.
GMHBA Stadium has remained one of the competition's toughest road trips. The Cats had won 10 straight at the venue before their loss to Brisbane, while matches at the ground continue to produce plenty of scoring, averaging 197 total points across the past five games. They should also take confidence from the fact last week's collapse was an outlier, having won all eight previous matches this season when leading at three-quarter time
Geelong Cats Team News
Geelong will monitor several key players after an injury-ravaged loss to GWS. Jeremy Cameron was taken to hospital with a collarbone injury, while Tanner Bruhn (neck) and Jack Henry (throat) were also unable to finish the match. All three remained in Sydney for further assessment following the game and are set to miss.
There was better news for Mark O'Connor, who was a late withdrawal with quad tightness but is expected to be available this week. Patrick Dangerfield battled through several knocks against the Giants and is not considered a concern heading into Thursday night's clash. Geelong remain confident their depth can cover any unavailable players if required. Grian Myers is set to come back in after a dominant performance at VFL level, while James Worpel will be considered.
St Kilda Form Analysis
St Kilda enter Round 19 with an 8-9 record after winning three of their past four matches to remain firmly in the finals race in the wildcarz zone in 10th position. The Saints held off Port Adelaide by 14 points last weekend, controlling large periods of the contest through midfield dominance and efficient ball movement.
Bradley Hill produced a best-on-ground display with 39 disposals, while Callum Wilkie, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Hugo Garcia all finished with more than 30 possessions. Wanganeen-Milera has now recorded seven consecutive 30+ disposal games, including 40 or more in two of his past three. Hill is averaging 39 disposals across his past three matches, while Garcia has produced at least 25 disposals in five straight games.
Cooper Sharman kicked three goals against Port Adelaide, with Jack Higgins and Liam Ryan each adding two. Higgins and Ryan have now kicked multiple goals in consecutive matches. However, the Saints' biggest challenge has been away from Marvel Stadium, winning just two of eight road matches this season. They have also lost all eight matches against teams currently above them on the ladder, with those contests averaging 185 total points.
St Kilda Team News
The Saints escaped last weekend without any major injury concerns. Anthony Caminiti suffered an eye injury during the win over Port Adelaide, while Mitch Owens rolled an ankle late in the match but was considered capable of returning had he been required.
Max King continues to edge closer to a return after resuming full training and reaching his previous running benchmarks but is likely to come back through the VFL. Hunter Clark and Jack Macrae have strong form at that level.
Verdict
Geelong to win with total match points to hit the over. Mannagh multiple goals.
Geelong 1-39
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