Hawthorn Hawks vs Sydney Swans AFL Betting Tips - Hawks to win a thriller at home
The upcoming clash between Hawthorn Hawks and Sydney Swans promises a thrilling encounter, with both teams rebounding strongly. Hawthorn boasts a significant track record at the MCG and impressive on-field synergy, particularly from Jack Gunston and Nick Watson in the forward line. Meanwhile, Sydney aims to leverage their brisk playstyle and notable performers like Callum Mills and Joel Amartey. Although Hawthorn appears to have an edge due to their dominance at MCG, Sydney’s bounce-back strength, despite injury concerns, keeps the competition fierce.
- Hawthorn's impressive home record at MCG gives them the edge.
- Sydney Swans showcase strong attacking play, focusing on quick transitions.
- Key matchups: Callum Mills vs Hawthorn's midfield; Amartey as Swans' scoring threat.
- Hawthorn Hawks vs Sydney Swans Preview
- Head to Head Stats
- Hawthorn Hawks Impressive In Round 1
- Hawthorn Hawks Team News
- Sydney Swans Bounce Back In Style
- Sydney Swans Team News
Hawthorn Hawks vs Sydney Swans Preview
Hawthorn rebounded from their Opening Round loss to GWS with a dominant 62-point win over Essendon last week. Sydney were convincing 44-point winners over Brisbane to set this up as a cracker.
Hawthorn’s ability to control the tempo at the MCG can see them edge out a strong Sydney outfit.
- Hawthorn have won 14 of their past 18 at the MCG, Sydney have won just three of their past 11
- Callum Mills has averaged 33 disposals in his past three matches against Hawthorn
- Karl Amon has averaged over 25 disposals in his past four matches against Sydney
- Joel Amartey has kicked eight goals this season and has booted 3+ in two of his past three against the Hawks
Head to Head Stats
The two sides have not met since the Operning Round in 2025 and it was Hawthorn that broke away late in the game to win by 20 points.
The Swans were 76 point winners the last time the two sides played at the MCG, which was in Round 7 of 2024. They have won three of the past four between the two sides.
Hawthorn Hawks Impressive In Round 1
Hawthorn produced one of the most impressive performances of Round 1 when they dismantled Essendon by 62 points at the MCG, bouncing back strongly after their Opening Round loss to GWS.
Sam Mitchell’s side dominated territory and possession, finishing with a massive 69 inside 50s to Essendon’s 40.
Jack Gunston continues to be a major weapon inside forward 50, kicking nine goals across his first two matches of the season. Nick Watson has also been lively with six goals so far, giving the Hawks strong scoring options at both ends of the forward structure.
Connor Macdonald and Dylan Moore have been important linking players between midfield and attack, both capable of pushing forward and hitting the scoreboard.
Through the midfield the Hawks have enjoyed strong balance, with Josh Ward (26 disposals last week), Jai Newcombe and Conor Nash all contributing heavily around stoppages. The ruck combination of Lloyd Meek and Ned Reeves worked effectively last week and may again be used to give Hawthorn an advantage against Brodie Grundy.
Across half back, Karl Amon and Jarman Impey continue to provide run and ball movement, while James Sicily has been a standout leader in defence, averaging 24.5 disposals across the opening two matches.
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn head into the clash with a relatively healthy list and no new injuries reported from their Round 1 victory over Essendon.
The Hawks may again deploy their two-ruck combination of Ned Reeves and Lloyd Meek after the pair combined strongly last week, dominating the stoppages and helping the midfield control territory.
Sydney Swans Bounce Back In Style
Sydney were impressive in their Round 1 victory over Brisbane, producing an attacking performance that highlighted their ability to move the ball quickly and generate scoring opportunities.
Joel Amartey has been one of the Swans’ standout players early in the season, kicking eight goals across the opening two matches.
His presence inside forward 50 will again be critical against Hawthorn’s tall defensive unit. Charlie Curnow also provided another target earlier in the season with three goals in the Opening Round.
Justin McInerney has been one of Sydney’s most consistent midfield contributors, averaging 27 disposals across the opening two matches. Callum Mills also looms as a key figure in the Swans’ midfield battle and has historically performed strongly against Hawthorn.
Nick Blakey remains one of Sydney’s most dangerous rebound players from defence, capable of breaking open games with his speed and long kicking.
If the Swans can generate run off half back and move the ball quickly through the corridor, they will create scoring opportunities for Amartey and their forward targets.
Sydney Swans Team News
Errol Gulden (shoulder) is a massive blow for Sydney, while Isaac Heeney (hamstring) is under an injury cloud. His availability will play a major role in shaping the Swans’ midfield structure.
Verdict
Hawthorn to win with Amon influential across half back. Mills to find plenty of the footy for Sydney with Amartey amongst the goals.
Hawthorn 1-39
Winning Margin 1-39
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Karl Amon
To Have 25+ disposals
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