New Zealand vs Tonga Preview & Betting Tips - Kiwis to dominate Tonga in Pacific Championships
The New Zealand rugby team seeks revenge against Tonga in a much-anticipated Pacific Championship match. After losing narrowly to Tonga last year, the Kiwis are predicted to cover a 9.5-point line by restricting Tonga to fewer than 16.5 points. New Zealand’s recent form against Samoa has shown strong defensive capability, with players like Casey McLean and Dylan Brown playing pivotal roles. Tonga, having struggled against Samoa, hopes to improve but faces lineup changes due to recent injuries. Overall, New Zealand is positioned as a strong favorite to win.
- New Zealand vs Tonga expert predictions for Sunday’s Pacific Championships game
- Kiwis seek redemption after last year's narrow loss
- New Zealand to cover by 9.5 points against Tonga
- New Zealand vs Tonga Preview
- Head to Head
- New Zealand Form
- New Zealand Team News
- New Zealand Team List
- Tonga Form
- Tonga Team News
- Tonga Team List
New Zealand vs Tonga Preview
New Zealand lost to Tonga in last year's Pacific Championship but can get revenge on Sunday and book their spot in the 2025 final. The Kiwis should cover the 9.5 point line and restrict Tonga to under a 16.5-point team total.
- New Zealand’s last 5 wins against Tonga have been by 10 points or more.
- Tonga have scored under 16.5 points in 4 of the last 7 matches against New Zealand.
- Tonga scored just 6 points against Samoa last weekend.
- Casey McLean has 6 tries in 2 career matches for New Zealand.
Head to Head
The last time these two met resulted in an upset for the ages with Isaita Katoa kicking a field goal to give Tonga a 25-24 victory in last year's Pacific Championships.
Tonga beat New Zealand in the 2017 World Cup, otherwise it has been a one-sided affair with Kiwis holding a 6-2 lead in the head to head tally.
New Zealand Form
The Kiwis got the job done against Samoa in the opening match of the Pacific Championships with a 74th minute try by Dylan Brown breaking the deadlock and New Zealand becoming victorious 24-18.
It was a back and forth battle at GoMedia with the Kiwis racing out to a 12-0 lead before a comeback from Samoa. The stats can’t be any tighter in a game of footy with nothing splitting the two sides.
If there was a difference in the numbers it would highlight the goal line defence of New Zealand as the game winner with New Zealand facing 30 tackles inside their 20m for just three tries, while they only tackled inside Samoa’s red zone 16 times.
With Ronaldo Mulitalo going down Matt Timoko had a day out at the back putting the work to get his side out of their own end, topping the chart with 194 run metres without a linebreak and also crossing the line for a try.
The New Zealand halves combination was under the microscope and it passed the test with Kieren Foran doing all of the kicking and Dylan Brown running at the line and taking on the playmaker duties. Brown finished the match with a try and two try assists in a standout performance.
New Zealand Team News
Ronaldo Mulitalo and Jeremy Marshall-King will miss the clash versus Tonga, being replaced by Sebastian Kris on the wing and Phoenix Crossland being promoted to the starting side, with Te Maire Martin coming in and debuting off the bench.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona has been dropped with another debutant Xavier Willison coming into the 17.
New Zealand Team List
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Jamayne Isaako
3. Matt Timoko
4. Casey McLean
5. Seb Kris
6. Dylan Brown
7. Kieran Foran
8. James Fisher-Harris
9. Phoenix Crossland
10. Moses Leota
11. Briton Nikora
12. Isaiah Papali'i
13. Joseph Tapine
Interchange
14. Te Maire Martin
15. Naufahu Whyte
16. Erin Clark
17. Xavier Willison
Reserves
18. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
19. Scott Sorensen
20. Keano Kini
21. Zach Dockar-Clay
Tonga Form
The Tongans were outplayed heavily by Samoa last weekend with a consolation, 79th-minute try all they could rejoice about in a 34-6 loss at an electric Suncorp Stadium on Sunday.
Tonga were torn up through the middle with Samoa running for 376 more metres while controlling 55% of possession and 61% of the territory. Tonga were on the back foot for most of the match, unable to contain the Samoa who had 30 tackles inside their 20m.
The halves combination of Isaiya Katoa and Isaiah Iongi failed to create any spark for the Tongans while also losing the kicking battle from their own end, giving up too much quality field position to their opponents.
Young Warriors phenomenon Leka Halisima came into the starting side late and was a shining light in a dull night for Tonga, running for 124 metres and busting the Samoan line twice and making 28 tackles.
Tonga Team News
Robert Toai suffered an injury in the Tongans loss to Samoa and has been replaced by Paul Alamoti in the centres.
Felise Kaufusi comes into the starting side to replace Stefano Utoikamanu, who is under concussion protocol.
Jason Taumalolo comes back in at lock after being a late withdrawal last week.
Tonga Team List
1. Lehi Hopoate
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Tolu Koula
4. Paul Alamoti
5. Sione Katoa
6. Isaiah Iongi
7. Isaiya Katoa
8. Addin Fonua-Blake
9. Siliva Havili
10. Felise Kaufusi
11. Eli Katoa
12. Siua Wong
13. Jason Taumalolo
Interchange
14. Soni Luke
15. Leka Halasima
16. Demitric Vaimauga
17. Moeaki Fotuaika
Reserves
18. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki
19. Will Penisini
Verdict
Casey McLean is tipped to be the key man as New Zealand cover a 9.5-point handicap. The Kiwis can also hold Tonga under 16.5 points in the match.
New Zealand -9.5
Handicap/Line
@11/12 - 3 Units
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Tonga Under 16.5
Team Total
@10/11 - 2 Units
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Casey McLean
Anytime Tryscorer
@4/5 - 3 Units
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Casey McLean
First Tryscorer
@13/2 - 1 Unit
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