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Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights NRL Betting Tips - Tight tussle predicted in Round 23

ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker
Editor
Last updated: Thu 06 Aug 2026 17:20
The Canberra Raiders and Newcastle Knights are set for a closely contested NRL match at GIO Stadium. After a hot streak, Canberra's form cooled against Penrith, while Newcastle bounced back with a dominant win over Brisbane. Two of the last three meetings at this venue have gone the way of the Knights, who boast a strong defence. The recommendation is to back Newcastle to win by 1-12 points and for the match total to stay under 45.5 points. Greg Marzhew is the top tryscorer pick.
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Ryan Tucker 06 Aug 2026
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  • Newcastle tipped for a 1-12 point victory over Canberra
  • Game total expected to stay under 45.5 points
  • Greg Marzhew is the top prop bet for tryscorer
raiders knights nrl
Newcastle Knights and Canberra Raiders clash (Getty Images)

Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights Verdict


A tight tussle is in store between two closely matches rivals with under 45.5 points the best bet. Newcastle Knights are value to edge the victory having won two of the last three matches between these sides at GIO Stadium.

  • Newcastle had played in 8 straight games decided by 6 pts or less before last week's win, which makes the 1-12 margin the right way to attack this matchup.
  • The Knights have won 2 of their last 3 games at GIO Stadium and can lean on a defence that just kept Brisbane scoreless in the first half.
  • Four of the last 5 games between Canberra and Newcastle have stayed under 45.5 points, and both sides are comfortable grinding through field position.
  • Greg Marzhew scored twice last week and has six tries in his last five games against the Raiders.

Head to Head Stats


Canberra have won three of the last five head-to-head meetings, but Newcastle won 32-12 earlier this season and have had success at GIO Stadium. 

The last five meetings have produced mixed results, but four of the last five have stayed under this week's total.

Canberra Raiders Form - Run Ended


Canberra were in strong form before last week, winning 4 straight and scoring 154 points across that run. 

Penrith brought them back down with a 42-18 loss, but even in that defeat the Raiders had moments early and led 6-0 through Matthew Timoko.

The issue was control. Canberra conceded five straight tries in the first half and trailed 30-6 at the break, then still found some late attack through Matty Nicholson and Ethan Strange. 

Their last-five scoring average is 34.4, but that is inflated by a couple of big wins and this Knights defence is a different type of test.

Newcastle Knights Form - Back To Life


Newcastle's 30-6 win over Brisbane was the circuit-breaker they needed after three straight losses by a combined five points. 

The Knights kept Brisbane scoreless in the first half, turned defence into attack, and closed the game with Fletcher Sharpe's 50-metre untouched try.

Marzhew scored twice, Sharpe also scored twice, and Kalyn Ponga was heavily involved after returning from his quad injury. 

Across their last five the Knights have averaged 21.4 points scored and 17.4 conceded, which is the exact profile for a narrow road win rather than a shootout.

Verdict

Take Newcastle 1-12 and the Game Total Under 45.5. Greg Marzhew is the top player prop for anytime and first tryscorer.

Best Bet1: Newcastle 1-12 Winning Margin @12/5 at Hollywoodbets - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Under 45.5 Game Total @9/10 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Greg Marzhew Anytime Tryscorer @21/20 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Greg Marzhew First Tryscorer @15/2 at Hollywoodbets - 1 Unit
Newcastle 1-12
Winning Margin
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Under 45.5
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Bet at bet365
Greg Marzhew
Anytime Tryscorer
@21/20 - 1 Unit
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Bet at Star Sports
Greg Marzhew
First Tryscorer
@15/2 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
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Bet at Hollywoodbets
ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Australian Sports Specialist & Betting Model Expert

Ryan's love for sport traverses many countries and cultures. From humble beginnings in Western Sydney growing up playing and refereeing Rugby League to running European wide Australian Rules Football tournaments there is a mountain of experience in between. 


Multiple trips to North America has also deepened the love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.

Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for NRL.

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