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Canberra Raiders vs North Queensland Cowboys NRL Betting Tips - Trends points to upset in Round 13

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Ryan Tucker
Editor
Last updated: Sat 30 May 2026 10:22
The North Queensland Cowboys are predicted to continue their dominance over the Canberra Raiders, having won the last seven matchups and four consecutive away games. The Raiders’ home struggles persist, with only one win in their last seven GIO Stadium appearances. Key players are returning for both squads, but the Cowboys’ form and offensive edge make them the recommended pick. The expected total score is under 54.5 points, and Murray Taulagi is spotted as a strong first tryscorer option.
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Ryan Tucker 30 May 2026
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  • Cowboys have won 7 straight vs Raiders & are in stronger form.
  • Canberra struggling with 6 losses from 7 home games.
  • Prediction: Cowboys to win; under 54.5 total points.
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north queensland cowboys
North Queensland Cowboys to cause an upset (Getty Images)

Canberra Raiders vs North Queensland Cowboys Verdict


The Canberra Raiders have not beaten the Cowboys at home since 2018, have lost six of their last seven games at GIO Stadium and have dropped seven straight games in this fixture. The trends, coupled with current form, means North Queensland have to be the play.

  • North Queensland have won their last 7 games against Canberra.
  • The Cowboys have won their last 4 away games and Canberra have lost 6 of their last 7 games at GIO Stadium.
  • North Queensland have averaged 30.4 points across their last 5 games.
  • The projected total is 49.6 total points, which sits well below the 54.5 line.

Head to Head Stats


North Queensland won the most recent meeting 30-20 last season and have taken seven straight against the Raiders. 

Canberra's home edge has not shown up in this matchup, with the Raiders still looking for their first home win over the Cowboys since 2018.

Canberra Raiders Form - Home Troubles


Canberra are coming off a 30-22 loss to the Dolphins after scoring in the opening minute and failing to stay with them across the full 80 minutes. The Raiders are averaging 21.6 points and conceding 25.4 across their last 5 games.

Seb Kris returns after missing last week with a quad issue, and Ethan Strange and Hudson Young have been named to back up from Origin One but double check team lists prior to kickoff. Jayden Brailey is out with concussion and Daine Laurie has been named to start at lock.

The Raiders still have enough strike through Kaeo Weekes, Xavier Savage and Matthew Timoko, but the form trend at GIO Stadium is hard to ignore. They have not been turning home games into the advantage the market is pricing.

North Queensland Cowboys Form - Cowboys Find Rhythm


North Queensland are in the better rhythm. They have won four of their last five games, averaged 30.4 points across that run and come into this after putting 30 points on South Sydney.

Reuben Cotter has been named to back up from Origin One, Jason Taumalolo shifts to prop and Matt Lodge moves to the bench. That keeps the Cowboys big through the middle while still giving them bench punch.

Murray Taulagi returning from concussion is a strong boost to the edge attack. He is named on the wing outside a Cowboys backline that already has Scott Drinkwater and Tom Chester creating points, which is why both the first tryscorer and multi angles are live.

Verdict

Take North Queensland to win outright and the Game Total Under 54.5. Murray Taulagi is the first tryscorer angle.

Best Bet1: Nth QLD Cowboys Moneyline @6/5 at bet365 - 2 Units
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Best Bet3: Murray Taulagi First Tryscorer @17/2 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
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ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Australian Sports Specialist & Betting Model Expert

Ryan's love for sport traverses many countries and cultures. From humble beginnings in Western Sydney growing up playing and refereeing Rugby League to running European wide Australian Rules Football tournaments there is a mountain of experience in between. 


Multiple trips to North America has also deepened the love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.

Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for NRL.

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