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Penrith Panthers vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Betting Tips - TriBet the value play in Round 13 closer

ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker
Editor
Last updated: Sat 30 May 2026 10:22
Round 13 ends with a blockbuster as the in-form Penrith Panthers face the streaking New Zealand Warriors. Panthers have won five in a row, while the Warriors boast six straight victories and a potent attack. The recommendation is to expect points, with model projections favoring over 46.5 total. Despite Origin-related team changes, both sides have enough depth and attacking firepower to keep the match tight. Betting advice: Take over 46.5 points, either team to win by 1-12, and consider Jenkins & DWZ for tryscorer multis.
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Ryan Tucker 30 May 2026
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  • Both are in top form, expect a close and high-scoring match.
  • Model predicts over 46.5 total points; both teams average top league points.
  • Betting tip: Over 46.5 total, either team 1-12 winning margin, Jenkins & DWZ tryscorer multi.
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panthers warriors nrl
New Zealand Warriors and Penrith Panthers are the top two on the ladder (Getty Images)

Penrith Panthers vs New Zealand Warriors Verdict


It's a top of the ladder showdown to finish Round 13 with the Tri-Bet the play and either team by 1-12 points. I'm expecing points to flow too between the in-form sides.

  • The model projects 49.6 total points against the line of 46.5.
  • Penrith have averaged 28.6 points across their last 5 games and the Warriors have averaged 31.2.
  • The Warriors rank 1st and Penrith 2nd for Points.
  • Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has scored 12 tries in his last 7 games.

Head to Head Stats


Penrith have won four of the last five head to head games. The Panthers beat the Warriors 24-8 in the opening week of the 2025 finals and have won 10 of their last 11 games against this opponent. 

The Warriors counter that with current road form, having won their last four games in Australia.

Penrith Panthers Form - 5 Straight For Panthers


Penrith have won five straight and have averaged 28.6 points while conceding just 14.8. They are still the most complete team in the competition when their forwards get on top and the spine controls field position.

The team-list wrinkle is Origin. Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo, Casey McLean and Brian To'o are named in the reserves and will be monitored after Game One, while Jack Cogger is named to play halfback if Cleary does not back up.

Liam Martin returning from a knee injury is a major boost on the edge. Penrith also have Thomas Jenkins named on the wing, which puts him into the tryscorer multi given the expected attacking volume in this matchup.

New Zealand Warriors Form - Wahs 6 And Counting


The Warriors have been brilliant this year and have won six straight, averaged 32.3 points and conceded only 15 per game across that run.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is out for the season with an ACL injury, so Adam Pompey comes into the centres. Marata Niukore has been added to the bench, while Mitch Barnett and Kurt Capewell are set to be rested.

Even with those changes, the Warriors still have enough strike to keep this close. DWZ has scored 12 tries in his last seven games, Alofiana Khan-Pereira is on the other wing and the spine has been generating points consistently.

Verdict

Take Over 46.5 and Either Team 1-12. Tom Jenkins and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak in a tryscorer multi is the player prop play.

Best Bet1: Over 46.5 Game Total @9/10 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Either Team 1-12 Winning Margin @4/5 at dabble - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Jenkins & DWZ Tryscorer Multi @9/4 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Over 46.5
Game Total
@9/10 - 2 Units
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Bet at bet365
Either Team 1-12
Winning Margin
@4/5 - 3 Units
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Bet at dabble
Jenkins & DWZ
Tryscorer Multi
@9/4 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS

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Bet at Star Sports
ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Australian Sports Specialist & Betting Model Expert

Ryan's love for sport traverses many countries and cultures. From humble beginnings in Western Sydney growing up playing and refereeing Rugby League to running European wide Australian Rules Football tournaments there is a mountain of experience in between. 


Multiple trips to North America has also deepened the love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.

Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for NRL.

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