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Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm NRL Betting Tips - Storm with the start as turnaround begins

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Wed 29 Apr 2026 16:26

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Ryan Tucker 29 Apr 2026

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Storm have lost 6 straight but strong covering as underdogs
Dolphins defensively vulnerable, especially late in matches
Back Storm to cover, over 24.5 points & Fa’alogo as tryscorer

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Melbourne Storm have lost six straight (Getty Images)

Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm Preview
Head to Head
Dolphins Form Analysis
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis

Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm Preview

Melbourne are outsiders following a crazy six straight defeats, but they appeal to cover with a +3.5 points start. The Storm's run has been a shock, but they can make a match of this one at the very least.

The Dolphins have lost 4 of their last 6 games at Suncorp Stadium and have allowed an average of 26 pts to opponents so far this season.
The Storm have covered in 5 of their last 6 road games as the Underdog, winning 4 outright.
Dolphins have allowed a try to their opposition fullback in 3 straight games, 2 of those as first tryscorer.
Sua Fa’alogo has scored in 4 of his last 5 games.

Head to Head

The Dolphins won the last matchup last year at Suncorp 42-22, their first win in four attempts over the Storm. The last three have gone Over the Game Total and the ATS record being split 2-2.

Dolphins Form Analysis

The Dolphins sit 12th on the ladder entering Round 9 having lost four straight games with a bye in the middle.

In Round 7 they went down to the Panthers in Golden Point while last week they gave up a 18-14 halftime lead to the Warriors to lose 20-18.

What has troubled them this season and was very apparent last weekend, is their ability to play out the full 80 minutes.

The Dolphins have great attacking power and they have solved some of the inefficiencies they had on defence last year, but there is still work to be done.

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis

Six straight losses have the Storm in trouble. Three of those have been by only four points, but the other three were by 40, 24 and 42 points last week to the Rabbitohs.

It is a stark contrast to the team that allowed just five scores of 30+ pts last season over the whole year in 2025.

Last week against Souths they completed at just 65% with 14 Errors, allowed 2118 Run Metres to their opponent as well as losing the Linebreaks battle 14-1.

Jahrome Hughes looked troubled by a wrist injury in the loss but will miss this week anyway after failing a HIA which deepens the trouble for the embattled Storm.

Verdict

Dolphins v Melbourne Storm

Take the Storm over their Team Total of 24.5 and to cover with a +3.5 handicap. Sua Fa’alogo is backed as the anytime and first tryscorer.

Melbourne +3.5

Line

@20/21 - 3 Units

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Storm over 24.5

Team Total

@9/10 - 2 Units

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S Fa'alogo

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@5/6 - 1 Unit

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S Fa'alogo

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@15/2 - 1 Unit

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