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Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm NRL Betting Tips - Storm with the start as turnaround begins

ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker
Editor
Last updated: Wed 29 Apr 2026 16:26
The Melbourne Storm are the underdogs against the Dolphins, having lost six straight matches. Despite recent woes, they show value to cover the +3.5 handicap, especially given their strong record as road underdogs. The Dolphins have been shaky defensively, allowing an average of 26 points per game and struggling in the final minutes. Back Storm over 24.5 points and consider Sua Fa’alogo for tryscorer markets. The key recommendation is to back the Storm to cover and Fa’alogo as a tryscorer.
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Ryan Tucker 29 Apr 2026
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  • Storm have lost 6 straight but strong covering as underdogs
  • Dolphins defensively vulnerable, especially late in matches
  • Back Storm to cover, over 24.5 points & Fa’alogo as tryscorer
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Melbourne Storm
Melbourne Storm have lost six straight (Getty Images)

Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm Preview


Melbourne are outsiders following a crazy six straight defeats, but they appeal to cover with a +3.5 points start. The Storm's run has been a shock, but they can make a match of this one at the very least.

  • The Dolphins have lost 4 of their last 6 games at Suncorp Stadium and have allowed an average of 26 pts to opponents so far this season.
  • The Storm have covered in 5 of their last 6 road games as the Underdog, winning 4 outright.
  • Dolphins have allowed a try to their opposition fullback in 3 straight games, 2 of those as first tryscorer.
  • Sua Fa’alogo has scored in 4 of his last 5 games.

Head to Head 


The Dolphins won the last matchup last year at Suncorp 42-22, their first win in four attempts over the Storm. The last three have gone Over the Game Total and the ATS record being split 2-2.

Dolphins Form Analysis 


The Dolphins sit 12th on the ladder entering Round 9 having lost four straight games with a bye in the middle. 

In Round 7 they went down to the Panthers in Golden Point while last week they gave up a 18-14 halftime lead to the Warriors to lose 20-18. 

What has troubled them this season and was very apparent last weekend, is their ability to play out the full 80 minutes.

The Dolphins have great attacking power and they have solved some of the inefficiencies they had on defence last year, but there is still work to be done.

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis 


Six straight losses have the Storm in trouble. Three of those have been by only four points, but the other three were by 40, 24 and 42 points last week to the Rabbitohs. 

It is a stark contrast to the team that allowed just five scores of 30+ pts last season over the whole year in 2025.

Last week against Souths they completed at just 65% with 14 Errors, allowed 2118 Run Metres to their opponent as well as losing the Linebreaks battle 14-1.  

Jahrome Hughes looked troubled by a wrist injury in the loss but will miss this week anyway after failing a HIA which deepens the trouble for the embattled Storm.

Verdict

Take the Storm over their Team Total of 24.5 and to cover with a +3.5 handicap. Sua Fa’alogo is backed as the anytime and first tryscorer.

Best Bet1: Melbourne +3.5 Line @20/21 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Storm over 24.5 Team Total @9/10 at dabble - 2 Units
Best Bet3: S Fa'alogo Anytime Tryscorer @5/6 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: S Fa'alogo First Tryscorer @15/2 at Ken Howells - 1 Unit
Melbourne +3.5
Line
@20/21 - 3 Units
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Bet at bet365
Storm over 24.5
Team Total
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Bet at dabble
S Fa'alogo
Anytime Tryscorer
@5/6 - 1 Unit
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Bet at Star Sports
S Fa'alogo
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Bet at Ken Howells
ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Australian Sports Specialist & Betting Model Expert

Ryan's love for sport traverses many countries and cultures. From humble beginnings in Western Sydney growing up playing and refereeing Rugby League to running European wide Australian Rules Football tournaments there is a mountain of experience in between. 


Multiple trips to North America has also deepened the love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.

Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for NRL.

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