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Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs NRL Betting Tips - Knights value to win at home

ryan-tucker
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Last updated: Fri 01 May 2026 08:52
The Newcastle Knights are tipped to edge out the South Sydney Rabbitohs at home, buoyed by key returns from injury and a strong Sunday home record. Despite Souths’ impressive recent attacking form, they’ve struggled to score against defensively resilient teams like Newcastle. Bradman Best is highlighted as a strong try-scoring candidate, exploiting a weak Rabbitohs’ right edge defense. Recommended bets include Knights for the win, Souths under 26.5 points, and Bradman Best as an anytime tryscorer. Expect a close contest focused on tight defense and key individual performances.
Ryan Tucker 01 May 2026
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  • Knights tipped to win at home with key players returning.
  • Souths may struggle to score + defence-tested in tight games.
  • Bradman Best favored to score against Rabbitohs’ weak right edge.
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newcastle knights
Newcastle Knights (Getty Images)

Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Preview


Newcastle are tipped to win in a tight contest at home against the high flying Rabbitohs. The Knights can slow down the South Sydney attack and keep them under 26.5 points on the Team Total.

  • Newcastle have won 3 straight games against South Sydney and 13 of their last 19 games at home on a Sunday.
  • South Sydney have averaged just 10 pts per game in their last 3 against the Knights and have struggled to score against better defensive teams this season.
  • Bradman Best has scored in 5 of 6 career games against South Sydney
  • The Rabbitohs have allowed the majority of opposition tries down their right edge, opposite Bradman Best.

Head to Head 


The Knights have won three straight and five of the last seven regular season matchups against the Rabbitohs. The lone matchup last season ended 30-4 at Magic Round. 

Three of the last five games have gone Under the Game Total while five straight meetings have finished with double digit margins. The Knights are 6-1 ATS since the start of 2019.

Newcastle Knights Form - Knights Slip


After winning four of their first five games the Knights have slipped to 11th on the ladder following a three-game losing streak. The 44-12 loss at home to the Panthers, the latest on the list. 

If injuries are plaguing your team and you need to capitalise on the few opportunities your opponent presents you, it doesn’t help to have 15 Errors and then also miss 58 tackles which is exactly what happened against the Panthers last weekend.

With a host of names set to return this week, including captain Kalyn Ponga, Dylan Lucas and Bradman Best, there is bound to be a bit more confidence in that dressing room.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Form - Souths Pile On The Points


The Rabbits put Melbourne to the sword last weekend running away 48-6 winners at AAMI Park, their first ever win at the venue. 

The Storm often put it on a platter for them but there was a lot of skill on show by the likes of Latrell Mitchell who had three Linebreak Assists and Matt Dufty at fullback who is impressing in place of the injured Jye Gray.

One of the better metrics for South’s was holding out the Storm inside the Red Zone, absorbing 33 tackles without breaking. The only opposition try an opportunistic one off the short kickoff.

Souths have scored 30+ points in four straight games and while they have been strong defensively when things are going right at the other end, they have been shown to lose patience and focus in tight clashes or when behind on the scoreboard.

Verdict

Take Newcastle on the moneyline, South Sydney under 26.5 pts on the Team Total and Bradman Best to cross for a 4 pointer against a weaker Bunnies right edge.

Best Bet1: Newcastle Knights Moneyline @21/20 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Souths under 26.5 Team Total @9/10 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Bradman Best Anytime Tryscorer @5/2 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Bradman Best First Tryscorer @20/1 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Newcastle Knights
Moneyline
@21/20 - 3 Units
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Souths under 26.5
Team Total
@9/10 - 2 Units
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Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad

Bet at bet365
Bradman Best
Anytime Tryscorer
@5/2 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
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Bet at Star Sports
Bradman Best
First Tryscorer
@20/1 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
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Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

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