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Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs NRL Betting Tips - Knights value to win at home

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Fri 01 May 2026 08:52

Ryan Tucker 01 May 2026

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Knights tipped to win at home with key players returning.
Souths may struggle to score + defence-tested in tight games.
Bradman Best favored to score against Rabbitohs’ weak right edge.

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Newcastle Knights (Getty Images)

Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Preview
Head to Head
Newcastle Knights Form - Knights Slip
South Sydney Rabbitohs Form - Souths Pile On The Points

Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Preview

Newcastle are tipped to win in a tight contest at home against the high flying Rabbitohs. The Knights can slow down the South Sydney attack and keep them under 26.5 points on the Team Total.

Newcastle have won 3 straight games against South Sydney and 13 of their last 19 games at home on a Sunday.
South Sydney have averaged just 10 pts per game in their last 3 against the Knights and have struggled to score against better defensive teams this season.
Bradman Best has scored in 5 of 6 career games against South Sydney
The Rabbitohs have allowed the majority of opposition tries down their right edge, opposite Bradman Best.

Head to Head

The Knights have won three straight and five of the last seven regular season matchups against the Rabbitohs. The lone matchup last season ended 30-4 at Magic Round.

Three of the last five games have gone Under the Game Total while five straight meetings have finished with double digit margins. The Knights are 6-1 ATS since the start of 2019.

Newcastle Knights Form - Knights Slip

After winning four of their first five games the Knights have slipped to 11th on the ladder following a three-game losing streak. The 44-12 loss at home to the Panthers, the latest on the list.

If injuries are plaguing your team and you need to capitalise on the few opportunities your opponent presents you, it doesn’t help to have 15 Errors and then also miss 58 tackles which is exactly what happened against the Panthers last weekend.

With a host of names set to return this week, including captain Kalyn Ponga, Dylan Lucas and Bradman Best, there is bound to be a bit more confidence in that dressing room.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Form - Souths Pile On The Points

The Rabbits put Melbourne to the sword last weekend running away 48-6 winners at AAMI Park, their first ever win at the venue.

The Storm often put it on a platter for them but there was a lot of skill on show by the likes of Latrell Mitchell who had three Linebreak Assists and Matt Dufty at fullback who is impressing in place of the injured Jye Gray.

One of the better metrics for South’s was holding out the Storm inside the Red Zone, absorbing 33 tackles without breaking. The only opposition try an opportunistic one off the short kickoff.

Souths have scored 30+ points in four straight games and while they have been strong defensively when things are going right at the other end, they have been shown to lose patience and focus in tight clashes or when behind on the scoreboard.

Verdict

Newcastle Knights v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Take Newcastle on the moneyline, South Sydney under 26.5 pts on the Team Total and Bradman Best to cross for a 4 pointer against a weaker Bunnies right edge.

Newcastle Knights

Moneyline

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Souths under 26.5

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Ryan's love for sport traverses many countries and cultures. From humble beginnings in Western Sydney growing up playing and refereeing Rugby League to running European wide Australian Rules Football tournaments there is a mountain of experience in between.

Multiple trips to North America has also deepened the love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.

Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for NRL.