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Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Betting Tips - Warriors underestimated and backed to cover

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
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Last updated: Thu 25 Jun 2026 14:29
The Dolphins, currently the hottest team in the NRL with seven consecutive wins, face the defensively solid New Zealand Warriors—winners of 10 from 14. Recent head-to-head meetings have been very close, with all five decided by four points or less. Despite the Dolphins’ attacking power, the Warriors have been underrated in betting. With their strong defence and reliable core, the recommended bet is New Zealand at +7.5 in the handicap market. Expect another tight contest, with the game total under 50.5 also appealing for punters.
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Jeremy Darke 25 Jun 2026
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  • Dolphins have won 7 straight games, averaging 37.2 points.
  • Warriors excel defensively (14.8 pts conceded per last 5 games) & are solid value at +7.5.
  • All last 5 head-to-heads decided by 4 points or less, expect another close match.
dolphins warriors nrl
New Zealand Warriors and Dolphins clash (Getty Images)

Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors Verdict


Two top four sides clash and it is the Warriors who are being understimated against a red-got Dolphins side. New Zealand have won 10 of their 14 games but have been made +7.5 underdogs and I'm happy to take them with a start. 

  • The Dolphins have won seven straight matches.
  • The Warriors have conceded just 14.8 points per game across their last five.
  • The last five head-to-head meetings have all been decided by four points or fewer.
  • Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad scored 4 tries on the wing last week.

Head to Head


This has been one of the tightest recent matchups in the NRL.

Across the last five meetings, the Dolphins are 2-3 against the Warriors, with every game decided by four points or fewer. 

The Warriors won the most recent clash 20-18 in Round 8, while the Dolphins won 20-18 in New Zealand last season.

Dolphins Form - Red-Hot Phins


The Dolphins are the hottest team in the NRL, carrying a seven-game winning streak into Round 17.

They have scored at least 30 points in every win during that stretch, averaging 37.2 points while conceding just 15.6 across their last five games for an impressive average winning margin of 21.6 points.

Their attack continues to set the benchmark. The Dolphins average 29 points per game for the season and have already scored 414 points through 14 rounds.

They have consistently dominated through the middle, averaging 1,931 run metres and 622 post-contact metres across their last five matches, allowing their dangerous spine to attack off the back of strong field position.

The timing of the representative stars returning only strengthens an already in-form side. Isaiya Katoa is back to steer the attack, while Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Tom Flegler, Max Plath and Selwyn Cobbo all return after the Origin period, giving Kristian Woolf close to his strongest squad for the first time in weeks.

New Zealand Warriors Form - Solid Defence


The Warriors have quietly put together another outstanding campaign, winning 10 of their opening 14 matches while boasting one of the NRL's best defensive records. 

They have conceded just 244 points all season, an average of only 17 per game, while posting an elite 83% completion rate that continues to underpin their success.

Despite dropping consecutive two-point games before the bye, the Warriors responded in style with a 38-20 victory last week. 

Across their last five matches they have averaged 27.2 points scored while allowing only 14.8 points, with three wins coming by double figures and both defeats decided by a single converted try.

The Warriors continue to find points from multiple sources. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad exploded for four tries last week, Te Maire Martin had a hand in three more, and Mitch Barnett continues to lead the forward pack after averaging huge workloads through the middle.

Their consistency with possession and defensive resilience makes them one of the most reliable teams in the competition.

Verdict

Warriors +7.5 is the best play, with the Under 50.5 also appealing in what should be another tight head-to-head contest. CNZ will get another on the wing.

Best Bet1: New Zealand +7.5 Handicap/Line @10/11 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 50.5 Game Total @11/12 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Charnze Nicoll-Kloksta Anytime Tryscorer @1/1 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Charnze Nicoll-Kloksta First Tryscorer @17/2 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
New Zealand +7.5
Handicap/Line
@10/11 - 3 Units
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Under 50.5
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@11/12 - 2 Units
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Bet at bet365
Charnze Nicoll-Kloksta
Anytime Tryscorer
@1/1 - 1 Unit
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Bet at Star Sports
Charnze Nicoll-Kloksta
First Tryscorer
@17/2 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
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Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

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