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North Queensland Cowboys vs Penrith Panthers NRL Betting Tips - Panthers reaction expected in Round 17

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Thu 25 Jun 2026 14:29
The Penrith Panthers are poised to rebound following a rare defeat, taking on a struggling North Queensland Cowboys side that has suffered three consecutive losses. The Panthers remain the NRL's benchmark for attack and defense, conceding just 43 points in their last four games. North Queensland, meanwhile, have been inconsistent and have allowed 104 points over their past three matches. The recommendation is to back Penrith -11.5 (handicap) and under 49.5 total points, with Brian To'o highlighted as a strong anytime tryscorer pick.
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Jeremy Darke 25 Jun 2026
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  • Cowboys on a 3-match losing streak, struggling defensively.
  • Panthers maintain strong form, boasting best attack and defensive stats.
  • Recommendation: Penrith -11.5, Under 49.5 points, & Brian To'o anytime tryscorer.
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penrith panthers
Penrith Panthers are backed in the handicap (Getty Images)

North Queensland Cowboys vs Penrith Panthers Verdict 


The Cowboys have dropped three straight matches and are struggling for points too. Another loss is predicted as they host a Penrith Panthers side that will be out to bounce back from a shock loss last weekend.

  • Penrith have won four of their past five games.
  • Penrith have conceded just 43 points across their last four matches.
  • North Queensland have lost three straight matches.
  • Brian To'o has scored six tries in his last five games.

Head to Head


These sides have split the recent meetings, with North Queensland holding a 2-2-1 record across the last five clashes. 

The Cowboys won in Penrith and drew at home last season, showing they have matched up well historically, but Penrith arrive with a much stronger overall profile in 2026.

North Queensland Cowboys Form - Three Straight Defeats


The Cowboys have lost three straight matches and have struggled for consistency at both ends of the field, averaging just 18.8 points while conceding 26.8 across their last five games. 

They have been held to 20 points or fewer in four of those five outings, with attacking fluency proving difficult to sustain despite the creativity of Scott Drinkwater and the emergence of Jaxon Purdue.

There are still positives within the squad, particularly through the middle where Jason Taumalolo reaches his 300-game milestone and Reuben Cotter continues to lead from the front. 

The Cowboys will need a much sharper defensive performance after conceding 104 points across their last three matches.

Penrith Panthers Form - Shocked Panthers


Penrith remain the benchmark of the competition despite suffering a surprise one-point defeat last week. 

Prior to that result they had won four consecutive matches, averaging 36.5 points during that stretch, including a 68-0 demolition of the Tigers. 

Across their last five games they are averaging 32.8 points while conceding only 12.2, underlining why they own both the competition's best attack and defence.

The return of Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo and Brian To'o significantly strengthens an already elite lineup. 

Penrith continue to dominate the key possession metrics, ranking among the competition leaders in run metres, post-contact metres and defensive efficiency, while their disciplined style consistently limits opposition scoring opportunities. 

Verdict

Penrith -11.5 is the best bet, with the Under 49.5 also appealing given the Panthers' defensive strength. Brian To'o is the standout anytime try scorer after crossing six times in his last five games and returning to a full-strength backline.

Best Bet1: Penrith -11.5 Handicap/Line @7/8 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 49.5 Game Total @9/10 at dabble - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Brian To'o Anytime Tryscorer @4/5 at Star Sports - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Brian To'o First Tryscorer @13/2 at Ken Howells - 1 Unit
Penrith -11.5
Handicap/Line
@7/8 - 3 Units
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Under 49.5
Game Total
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Bet at dabble
Brian To'o
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Bet at Ken Howells
jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • 15+ Years of Experience, Australian Sports Specialist

Jeremy is a freelance journalist who is a true sports activist. A die-hard fan of the NRL all his life and also has a passion for all the major American sports.


From when he was a little fella he has played most sports ranging from rugby, ice hockey, tennis and football, just to name a few. His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster.

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