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Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm NRL Betting Tips - Storm the value as underdogs

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
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Last updated: Thu 25 Jun 2026 14:29
Melbourne Storm have built significant momentum by winning five of their last six games, averaging almost 30 points per contest recently. Their attacking prowess has been evident with high scores even without Jahrome Hughes. Manly Sea Eagles, with a strong defensive record and an impressive home advantage, remain a formidable opponent. Despite Manly's solid form, Melbourne's consistent scoring and overall momentum make them the recommended pick, especially given their underdog status. Additional betting suggestions include backing Over 46.5 total points and Moses Leo as an anytime tryscorer.
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Jeremy Darke 25 Jun 2026
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  • Melbourne Storm have won 5 of their last 6 matches, averaging almost 30 points
  • Manly boast solid defence and strong home form, conceding 16.6 points per game
  • Storm are tipped as value underdogs
melbourne storm
Melbourne Storm to win (Getty Images)

Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm Verdict


Melbourne have built strong momentum over the past six weeks, winning five of their last six games while averaging almost 30 points per match across their last five outings. They are the play as underdogs.

  • Melbourne have won five of their last six matches.
  • Manly-Warringah average 27 points per game at 4 Pines Park this season.
  • Melbourne have scored 30 or more points in three of their last five matches.
  • Moses Leo has scored six tries in his last five games.

Head to Head 


Recent meetings have been evenly split, with Manly-Warringah winning three of the last five clashes. The Sea Eagles edged Melbourne 18-16 in Round 20 last season after the Storm claimed a convincing 48-24 victory earlier in 2025.

Manly Sea Eagles Form - Solid Defence & Home Form


Manly-Warringah have won three of their last five matches and continue to build their success around defence, conceding just 16.6 points per game during that stretch. 

They have kept opponents to 14 points or fewer in three of those five games while averaging 24.0 points themselves, showing they remain capable of grinding out tight victories as well as producing points when opportunities arise.

Their home form has been a major strength throughout 2026, averaging 27 points per game at 4 Pines Park while conceding only 18. 

The Sea Eagles continue to generate strong field position through their kicking game, averaging 662 kick metres per match, and their attack remains dangerous with Tom Trbojevic returning alongside strike weapons Jason Saab and Haumole Olakau'atu.

Melbourne Storm Form - Storm Brewing


Melbourne have rediscovered their best football, winning four of their last five matches and becoming a contender again, while averaging 29.2 points scored and only 18.4 conceded. 

They have posted scores of 42, 32 and 34 points across that run, highlighting the attacking consistency that has driven their climb back into finals contention.

The Storm continue to rank among the NRL's elite attacking sides, averaging more than 1,800 run metres per game while consistently creating repeat attacking opportunities through Harry Grant and Cameron Munster. 

Even with Jahrome Hughes sidelined, Melbourne possess enough experience across the spine and strike out wide to maintain one of the competition's most potent attacks.

Verdict

Melbourne Storm to win, Over 46.5 total points and Moses Leo anytime tryscorer.

Best Bet1: Melbourne Storm Money Line @8/5 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Over 46.5 Game Total @9/10 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Moses Leo Anytime Tryscorer @6/4 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Moses Leo First Tryscorer @11/1 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Melbourne Storm
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@8/5 - 2 Units
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Over 46.5
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@9/10 - 3 Units
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Bet at bet365
Moses Leo
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Moses Leo
First Tryscorer
@11/1 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
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