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Penrith Panthers vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Betting Tips - Dragons to stay within huge line in Magic Round finale

ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker
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Last updated: Sat 16 May 2026 19:29
In this NRL Magic Round preview, Penrith Panthers are heavily favored against the winless St George Illawarra Dragons, with a notable +26.5 point spread for the Dragons. Despite rough form, Dragons may cover this generous line thanks to key players returning. Penrith's discipline remains high, but consistently covering big lines is a challenge. The recommended bets are Dragons +26.5, their team total over 12.5, and Blaize Talagi as a strong option for anytime or first tryscorer.
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Ryan Tucker 16 May 2026
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  • Dragons offered big +26.5 point spread despite recent struggles.
  • Key players return for Dragons, boosting their chances.
  • Bet recommendation: Dragons +26.5, Team Total Over 12.5, and Blaize Talagi as tryscorer.
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St George Illawarra Dragons can cover the line (Getty Images)

Penrith Panthers vs St George Illawarra Dragons Preview


Penrith should win this well but they have been given a 26.5 point for a game taking place on neutral territory in Magic Round. The Dragons may be winless still but they have I think they can stay within the line in Brisbane. 

  • The Dragons are getting +26.5 in an NRL game, a number too big to ignore regardless of the matchup.
  • The Dragons average 19 pts per game since the start of the 2025 season and have cleared this 12.5 number in 27 of their last 32 games during that span.
  • St George Illawarra get Kyle Flanagan, Dan Atkinson, Moses Suli and Luciano Leilua back into the squad.
  • Blaize Talagi has scored in 2 straight games and 3 of his last 4.

Head to Head Stats


Penrith have won four of the last five games against St George Illawarra with an average margin of +17 points. 

The Panthers won 40-20 in the most recent meeting last season and 46-10 in 2024, but the Dragons did win 22-10 at Penrith in Round 13 of 2024. Penrith have also won eight of their last nine games against the Dragons.

Penrith Panthers Form - Ruthless Panthers


Penrith sit on top of the table and showed how ruthless they can be in the first half against Canberra last week. Their best football is still cleaner, faster and more disciplined than everyone else in the NRL.

The only concern from last week was the error-riddled finish, which allowed the Raiders to press hard enough for Ivan Cleary to address it immediately after full-time. That is probably bad news for the Dragons because Penrith are not the type of team to ignore sloppiness.

Jack Cogger returns from suspension in the No.14 jersey and Liam Henry keeps his bench spot after returning from injury. The Panthers have more than enough class to win this game, but winning and covering 26.5 are two very different tasks.

St George Illawarra Dragons Form - Winless Dragons


The Dragons are still chasing their first win of the season and the last two weeks have been brutal. They have conceded 106 points across that stretch have 28 average losing margin over their last five games.

There are still reasons to believe the floor lifts slightly. Kyle Flanagan comes back in at halfback for Kade Reed, Dan Atkinson returns at five-eighth, Moses Suli comes back into the centres and Luciano Leilua is back from suspension.

This is not a Dragons win play. It is a number play. They have been priced like a team that cannot score twice and cannot compete for 80 minutes, and that is the point where the market has gone too far.

Penrith Panthers v St George Illawarra Dragons Team News


Jack Cogger returns from suspension in the No.14 jersey for the Panthers, with Jack Cole dropping out. Liam Henry retains his bench spot after returning from injury last week.

Kyle Flanagan returns at halfback for the injured Kade Reed in the Dragons line-up. Moses Suli returns from a back injury, Dan Atkinson is back from a hand injury and Luciano Leilua returns from suspension, while Mat Feagai is out with a back injury.

Verdict

Take St George Illawarra +26.5 and the Dragons Team Total Over 12.5. Blaize Talagi anytime tryscorer and first tryscorer are the top player props.

Best Bet1: Dragons +26.5 Line @9/10 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Dragons over 12.5 Team Total @17/20 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Blaize Talagi Anytime Tryscorer @7/5 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Blaize Talagi First Tryscorer @12/1 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Dragons +26.5
Line
@9/10 - 3 Units
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

Bet at Hollywood bets
Dragons over 12.5
Team Total
@17/20 - 2 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad

Bet at bet365
Blaize Talagi
Anytime Tryscorer
@7/5 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS

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Bet at Star Sports
Blaize Talagi
First Tryscorer
@12/1 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

Bet at Hollywood bets

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