This preview has expired.

See all our latest betting tips or suggested betting sites

Penrith Panthers vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Betting Tips - Dragons to stay within huge line in Magic Round finale

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Sat 16 May 2026 19:29

Ryan Tucker 16 May 2026

Share this article

Dragons offered big +26.5 point spread despite recent struggles.
Key players return for Dragons, boosting their chances.
Bet recommendation: Dragons +26.5, Team Total Over 12.5, and Blaize Talagi as tryscorer.

Expired

St George Illawarra Dragons can cover the line (Getty Images)

Penrith Panthers vs St George Illawarra Dragons Preview
Head to Head Stats
Penrith Panthers Form - Ruthless Panthers
St George Illawarra Dragons Form - Winless Dragons
Penrith Panthers v St George Illawarra Dragons Team News

Penrith Panthers vs St George Illawarra Dragons Preview

Penrith should win this well but they have been given a 26.5 point for a game taking place on neutral territory in Magic Round. The Dragons may be winless still but they have I think they can stay within the line in Brisbane.

The Dragons are getting +26.5 in an NRL game, a number too big to ignore regardless of the matchup.
The Dragons average 19 pts per game since the start of the 2025 season and have cleared this 12.5 number in 27 of their last 32 games during that span.
St George Illawarra get Kyle Flanagan, Dan Atkinson, Moses Suli and Luciano Leilua back into the squad.
Blaize Talagi has scored in 2 straight games and 3 of his last 4.

Head to Head Stats

Penrith have won four of the last five games against St George Illawarra with an average margin of +17 points.

The Panthers won 40-20 in the most recent meeting last season and 46-10 in 2024, but the Dragons did win 22-10 at Penrith in Round 13 of 2024. Penrith have also won eight of their last nine games against the Dragons.

Penrith Panthers Form - Ruthless Panthers

Penrith sit on top of the table and showed how ruthless they can be in the first half against Canberra last week. Their best football is still cleaner, faster and more disciplined than everyone else in the NRL.

The only concern from last week was the error-riddled finish, which allowed the Raiders to press hard enough for Ivan Cleary to address it immediately after full-time. That is probably bad news for the Dragons because Penrith are not the type of team to ignore sloppiness.

Jack Cogger returns from suspension in the No.14 jersey and Liam Henry keeps his bench spot after returning from injury. The Panthers have more than enough class to win this game, but winning and covering 26.5 are two very different tasks.

St George Illawarra Dragons Form - Winless Dragons

The Dragons are still chasing their first win of the season and the last two weeks have been brutal. They have conceded 106 points across that stretch have 28 average losing margin over their last five games.

There are still reasons to believe the floor lifts slightly. Kyle Flanagan comes back in at halfback for Kade Reed, Dan Atkinson returns at five-eighth, Moses Suli comes back into the centres and Luciano Leilua is back from suspension.

This is not a Dragons win play. It is a number play. They have been priced like a team that cannot score twice and cannot compete for 80 minutes, and that is the point where the market has gone too far.

Penrith Panthers v St George Illawarra Dragons Team News

Jack Cogger returns from suspension in the No.14 jersey for the Panthers, with Jack Cole dropping out. Liam Henry retains his bench spot after returning from injury last week.

Kyle Flanagan returns at halfback for the injured Kade Reed in the Dragons line-up. Moses Suli returns from a back injury, Dan Atkinson is back from a hand injury and Luciano Leilua returns from suspension, while Mat Feagai is out with a back injury.

Verdict

Penrith Panthers v St George Illawarra Dragons

Take St George Illawarra +26.5 and the Dragons Team Total Over 12.5. Blaize Talagi anytime tryscorer and first tryscorer are the top player props.

Dragons +26.5

Line

@9/10 - 3 Units

Bet £10 Get £30

with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad

Bet at bet365

Dragons over 12.5

Team Total

@17/20 - 2 Units

Bet £10 Get £10

Promo Code: NEWBONUS

New customers only. Bet £10+ to receive £10 in Free Bets. 7-day free bet expiry. Stake not returned. Promotional Terms Apply. 18+. GambleAware.org

Bet at dabble

Blaize Talagi

Anytime Tryscorer

@7/5 - 1 Unit

Bet £20 Get £10

Use promo code NEWBONUS

18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org

Bet at Star Sports

Blaize Talagi

First Tryscorer

@12/1 - 1 Unit

up to £25 Cashback

50% back with code NEWBONUS

The Ken Howells promo code is NEWBONUS. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. begambleaware.org

Bet at Ken Howells

Ryan's love for sport traverses many countries and cultures. From humble beginnings in Western Sydney growing up playing and refereeing Rugby League to running European wide Australian Rules Football tournaments there is a mountain of experience in between.

Multiple trips to North America has also deepened the love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.

Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for NRL.