Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Betting Tips & Live Stream - Paul to Keep it Close at ATP Shanghai
Daniil Medvedev faces Tommy Paul in the 2026 Shanghai Masters quarter-finals. Medvedev, with a strong hard court record but recent struggles against Top 20 players, meets Paul, who is yet to lose a set in Shanghai but has a poor head-to-head record. The article predicts a close match and recommends betting on a long first set, suggesting 'Set 1 Over 10.5 Games'. Viewers can watch the match live via Stake’s streaming platform by registering and funding an account. The main conclusion is to focus on the games market for better value.
- Medvedev has lost 6 straight vs Top 20 players
- Paul is yet to lose a set in Shanghai
- I am turning to the games markets in China
Daniil Medvedev hasn’t beaten a Top 20 player since Indian Wells and Tommy Paul is yet to lose a set in Shanghai. I think this will be a close match with the first set to go the distance.
| Daniil Medvedev | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Nationality | Russia | United States |
| Age | 30 (11 February 1996) | 29 (17 May 1997) |
| Height | 6'6" (1.98m) | 6'1" (1.85m) |
| Plays | Right-Handed | Right-Handed |
| Ranking | 6 | 18 |
| Career High | 1 (February 2022) | 8 (June 2025) |
| ATP Tour Titles | 24 | 5 |
| 2026 ATP Tour Titles | 3 | 1 |
| Grand Slam Titles | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Shanghai Best Result | Winner (2019) | Third Round (2023, 2024) |
HTH
Daniil Medvedev is 4-1 against Tommy Paul which includes a 3-0 record on hard courts.
| Year | Event | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indian Wells | Hard | R16 | Medvedev | 6-4 6-0 |
| 2024 | Rome | Clay | R16 | Paul | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2024 | Indian Wells | Hard | SF | Medvedev | 1-6 7-6 6-2 |
| 2023 | Beijing | Hard | R32 | Medvedev | 6-2 6-1 |
| 2021 | French Open | Clay | R64 | Medvedev | 3-6 6-1 6-4 6-3 |
Medvedev Playing Well in Asia
Daniil Medvedev was below his best on the North American hard court swing but has stepped it up in Asia.
The Russian won the Hangzhou Open before a disqualification against Novak Djokovic in the China Open semi-finals.
The 30-year-old had a slow start in Shanghai before beating Jan Lennard Struff 4-6 6-4 6-3. He hasn’t dropped a set since, defeating Dalibor Svrcina 6-2 6-3 and Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4 7-5.
Medvedev is chasing a fourth title in 2026 after winning in Brisbane and Dubai. He lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the Indian Wells final and now has a 32-10 record on hard courts this year.
Paul Chasing Fifth Final in 2026
Tommy Paul has reached four finals this year, losing in Delray Beach, Hamburg and Queen's Club alongside a victory in Houston.
The 29-year-old has reached one quarter-final on the hard court swing, in Cincinnati where he got past Alexander Zverev.
The American lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open fourth round. His inconsistency continued in Tokyo where he was thrashed 6-1 6-2 by Alejandro Tabilo in his opening match.
Paul has turned that form around in Shanghai where hasn’t dropped a set. He beat Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 6-2 6-2, Valentin Vacherot 6-4 6-2 and Zizou Bergs 7-6 6-4, saving a combined 17/21 break points.
How to Watch Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul Live
Event: 2026 Shanghai Masters
Round: Quarter-Finals
Date: Friday 17 October
The Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul match at the 2026 Shanghai Masters is available to stream live for registered users on Stake.
Stake is our top-recommended platform for watching tennis live online. They offer high-definition, low-latency streams alongside competitive in-play betting odds so you can follow every point in real time.
Steps to Stream the Match Live:
Create an Account: Visit Stake.com via our official link to open an account.
Fund Your Account: Make a minimum deposit using your preferred payment method.
Locate the Match: Go to the Tennis tab under Live Events and select Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul.
Start Streaming: Click the Live Stream icon on the match screen to open the video feed.*
*Geo-restrictions apply. Users must be 18+ and hold a funded account to view live streams. Please gamble responsibly.
ATP Shanghai Live Streams
- Time
- Sport
- Event
- Live
-
2026/10/17
11:00:00
AM Tennis Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP ShanghaiStream
-
2026/10/17
11:00:00
AM Tennis Rafael Jodar vs Daniil Medvedev
ATP ShanghaiStream
Oop's, We couldn't find events by your search parameters. Please serach with another key.
Verdict
Tommy Paul hasn’t lost a set in Shanghai but he needs to overcome a poor record against Daniil Medvedev. I think the odds on Medvedev are too short here so I am turning to the first set games markets.
Over 10.5 Games
Set 1 Total Games
@9/4 - 3 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS
Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad
Over 12.5 Games
Set 1 Total Games
@7/2 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £10
Promo Code: NEWBONUS
New customers only. Bet £10+ to receive £10 in Free Bets. 7-day free bet expiry. Stake not returned. Promotional Terms Apply. 18+. GambleAware.org
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