Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Live Stream & Betting Tips - All Italian Clash in the French Open Semi-Finals
Flavio Cobolli heads into the Roland Garros semi-final as the strong favourite against Matteo Arnaldi. Despite Cobolli's higher ranking and impressive 2026 season, Arnaldi has found his form on clay after early-year struggles, winning tough matches back-to-back. Their head-to-head is close (Arnaldi leads 3-2, all on clay), and only one of their meetings ended in straight sets. Given the tournament's unpredictability, an Arnaldi upset is possible, with value in betting on both players winning a set and a long, competitive match.
- Arnaldi has won 12 of his previous 13 matches
- The Italian has a 3-2 HTH record against Cobolli
- I am expecting a close clash at Roland Garros
Flavio Cobolli is an overwhelming favourite at Roland Garros but Matteo Arnaldi is unlikely to go down easy. The French Open has been full of upsets and another one wouldn’t surprise in the semi-finals.
| Matteo Arnaldi | Flavio Cobolli | |
|---|---|---|
| Nationality | Italy | Italy |
| Age | 25 (22 February 2001) | 24 (6 May 2002) |
| Height | 6'1" (1.85m) | 6'0" (1.83m) |
| Plays | Right-Handed | Right-Handed |
| Ranking | 104 | 14 |
| Career High | 30 (August 2024) | 12 (May 2026) |
| ATP Tour Titles | 0 | 3 |
| 2026 ATP Tour Titles | 0 | 1 |
| French Open Best Result | Fourth Round (2024) | Third Round (2025) |
HTH
Matteo Arnaldi is 3-2 against Flavio Cobolli, all five matches coming on clay.
| Year | Event | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | French Open | Clay | R64 | Cobolli | 6-3 6-3 6-7 6-1 |
| 2023 | Umag | Clay | R16 | Arnaldi | 6-3 7-6 |
| 2022 | Cordenons Challenger | Clay | R32 | Arnaldi | 6-3 5-7 6-3 |
| 2022 | Vicenza Challenger | Clay | R16 | Arnaldi | 6-4 4-6 6-4 |
| 2021 | Ercolano Challenger | Clay | R16 | Cobolli | 6-1 3-6 6-2 |
Arnaldi Finding Form on Clay
Matteo Arnaldi lost eight of his opening ten matches this year to drop out of the Top 100. He won the Cagliari Challenger which has been the catalyst for an upturn in form.
The Italian took out Jaume Munar and Alex de Minaur in Rome. He went close against Rafael Jodar in the third round, saving 3/10 break points in a 3 sets defeat.
Arnaldi has taken his chance at Roland Garros, getting past Tallon Griekspoor and Stefanos Tsitsipas in 4 sets before coming from behind in a 5 sets victory over Raphael Collignon.
The 25-year-old trailed Frances Tiafoe but turned it around once again, getting through 7-6 6-7 3-6 7-6 6-4 in five and a half hours. He was leading 7-5 5-2 in the quarter-finals when Matteo Berrettini retired.
Arnaldi spoke about fatigue after the victory: “I’m tired, that’s for sure. But I train and I play tennis to play these kinds of tournaments and these kinds of matches. So I’m trying to give it all that I’ve got.
“Obviously today I was a little bit more tired than usual. I wasn’t as fast as I think I was in the first match, but I’m here and I’m enjoying my tennis again. I was injured until not long ago so I’m just happy to be here and trying to give all I have.”
Cobolli to Become a Top 10 Player
Flavio Cobolli won the title in Acapulco and was a step away on clay in Munich. He beat Alexander Zverev on his way to the final where he lost to Ben Shelton.
The Italian reached the quarter-finals in Madrid but regressed with early exits in Rome and Hamburg.
The World No.14 has been close to his best at the French Open, beginning with straight sets victories over Andrea Pellegrino, Yibing Wu and Learner Tien.
The 24-year-old was on target for another comfortable victory over Zachary Svajda before coming through 6-2 6-3 6-7 7-6. He dropped the first set against Felix Auger Aliassime before rallying to win 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4, hitting 33 winners and 46 unforced errors.
Cobolli commented after the victory: “I'm very happy to be sat here (after) winning this match. It means a lot for me, and it's my first semi-final in a Grand Slam.
“It's a dream come true, and I think today I played a really good match also after a tough first set with tough conditions. But I'm really happy about the performance.”
Verdict
Matteo Arnaldi and Flavio Cobolli know each other well, just one of their five encounters settled in straight sets. I think this one will go all the way which means the value is on the underdog.
Yes
Both Players to Win a Set
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Matteo Arnaldi Win
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Yes
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Matteo Arnaldi Win 3-2
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Matteo Arnaldi v Flavio Cobolli
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