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Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks Preview & Tips - Crows to exit in straight sets with AFL Semi Final defeat

adam-cusworth
Adam Cusworth
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Last updated: Wed 10 Sep 2025 21:00
Hawthorn Hawks are set to challenge the Adelaide Crows in a highly anticipated AFL finals clash at Adelaide Oval. Hawthorn enters with strong form, having beaten GWS Giants and boasting a solid recent record against Adelaide. Key players Jack Gunston and Jack Ginnivan are in top shape, both contributing heavily in goals and disposals. Despite Adelaide’s robust home form, their recent loss to Collingwood raises questions. The Crows face potential line-up changes, but Hawks are tipped for the win, banking on their momentum and recent success at the venue.
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Adam Cusworth 10 Sep 2025
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  • Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks expert predictions for Friday’s Round 1 AFL game
  • Hawthorn has won 5 of last 7 at Adelaide Oval vs Crows
  • Gunston & Ginnivan are in excellent goal-scoring form and can star for the Hawks
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jack gunston
Jack Gunston of the Hawks (Getty Images)
  • Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks Preview
  • Head to Head 
  • Adelaide Crows Form
  • Adelaide Crows Team News
  • Hawthorn Hawks Form
  • Hawthorn Hawks Team News

Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks Preview


Eighth seeds Hawthorn beat GWS Giants last week and can take down minor premiers Adelaide Crows in another thriller. The Crows failed to fire against Collingwood in the Qualifying Final and I'm taking the Hawks in the head to head.

  • Hawthorn have won five of their past seven matches against Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval
  • Jack Gunston has kicked 3+ goals in six of his past seven
  • Jack Ginnivan has kicked five goals in his past two matches 
  • Ginnivan has had 20+ disposals in four of his past five games.

Head to Head 


The two sides met as recently as Round 21 at the Adelaide Oval. Hawthorn were fast out of the blocks and led by eight points at three-quarter time before going down by 14.

Hawthorn took out the Round 14 clash by three points in a low scoring game at Launceston in Tasmania, and have now won three of the past four between the two sides.

Adelaide Crows Form


Adelaide won 12 of their last 13 home and away matches before their Qualifying Final loss to Collingwood, taking their 2025 record against top eight sides in 2025 to five. The loss was their first at the Adelaide Oval in 11 matches and they are 12-2 at the venue this season. 

In the 10-week lead up to the finals, Adelaide ranked 4th for scoring and 2nd for fewest points conceded. They gave up 24 scoring shots to Collingwood in the 8.7 to 11.13 scoreline.

Luke Pedlar booted three goals, while Taylor Walker and Riley Thilthorpe snagged two each. Thilthorpe has kicked 24 from his past eight matches, hitting the 2+ in all but one of those. 

Adelaide are not a high-disposal side, ranking just 14th over the course of the season with Jordan Dawson and Rory Laird both averaging 24. Laird had 24 last weekend, while Dawson was down on his usual output with 19. Josh Worrell was the Crows leading disposal getter with 26. 

Adelaide Crows Team News


The Crows are unlikely to make too many changes to the side, despite going down last weekend. Josh Rachele will be out to prove his fitness in his bid to return from a knee injury. Izak Rankine still has two matches of a suspension to serve.

Hawthorn Hawks Form


Hawthorn headed into the finals having won eight of their last 11 home and away matches with those three losses all coming interstate in losses by less than 15 points. Their win against GWS snapped a five match losing streak in matches outside of Victoria and Tasmania this season. 

They are 2-5 outside of those two states, while they are 4-7 against sides in the eight in 2025. Jai Newcombe was Hawthorn’s best player against the Giants with 32 disposals, while Connor Macdonald, Jack Gunston and Jack Ginnivan kicked three goals apiece. 

Ginnivan has kicked five goals in his past two matches and has had 20+ disposals in four of his past five. Jack Gunston has kicked 65 majors for the season and has hit the 3+ goals in six of his past seven. 

Hawthorn Hawks Team News


Calsher Dear will miss with a hamstring injury and Mitch Lewis is the obvious replacement after booting four goals at VFL level last weekend. Max Ramsden is another option. 

Cam Mckenzie and Henry Hustwaite all played starring roles in the Hawks come from behind win for Box Hill and are other options.

Verdict

Hawks are backed to send Adelaide out in straight sets with Gunston and Ginnivan influential for Hawthorn.

Best Bet1: Hawthorn Match Winner @50/49 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Jack Gunston To Score 3+ goals @28/17 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Jack Ginnivan To Score 2+ goals @13/12 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Jack Ginnivan To Have 20+ disposals @17/20 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
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