Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats Tips - Blues face stiff test against Cats on Friday
The upcoming AFL clash between Carlton Blues and Geelong Cats promises a closely contested match. Carlton, rejuvenated under Josh Fraser with back-to-back wins, have a strong recent record against Geelong and have improved their pressure and midfield connection. Despite Geelong’s dominant form and potent scoring threats led by Jeremy Cameron, Carlton's recent performances and key leaders like Patrick Cripps indicate they could push for an upset. The recommendation is to back Carlton with a +25.5 point start and expect a strong display from Cripps, while keeping an eye on Cameron’s goal-scoring threat.
- Carlton have won their last two against Geelong and are resurgent under Josh Fraser.
- Geelong's form and depth make them favorites, with Jeremy Cameron a key threat.
- Expect a close match; Carlton's newfound pressure could keep them competitive.
Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats Preview
- Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats Preview
- Head to Head
- Carlton Blues Form Analysis
- Carlton Blues Team News
- Geelong Cats Form Analysis
- Geelong Cats Team News
Carlton can push Geelong all the way in what shapes as a fascinating match up in Friday night AFL.
The Blues have bounced in recent weeks with two wins in as many matches under their new coach, Josh Fraser. They have a fair mountain to climb, however, coming in with a 3-8 win-loss record, while Geelong are 8-3 and in 3rd spot on the ladder.
However, the Blues have a strong recent record against Geelong and the signs from their recent matches under Fraser suggest they can go close to pulling off an upset in the Round 12 matchup.
Carlton’s pressure, contest work and ability to defend transition has improved dramatically over the past fortnight and that shapes as the key to this match. The Blues have rediscovered their identity around contested possession, clearance work and territory, while they are now far more connected behind the ball when momentum shifts against them.
That has been one of the biggest differences in the past two weeks, with Carlton no longer folding when opposition sides generate repeat entries or quick scoring bursts.
Carlton’s midfield is beginning to fire as a collective unit with Patrick Cripps returning to dominant form, while their off-season recruits, Ollie Florent and Will Hayward, are finally bringing energy and pressure after a slow start to the season.
The task at hand will be tough against a Geelong outfit that have been one of the form teams of the competition over the past month and continue to show why they are genuine premiership contenders. Their ability to adapt tactically from week to week remains elite, while their ball movement and spread of scoring threats makes them difficult to shut down.
Jeremy Cameron is in outstanding form and shapes as the major threat again, but the Cats are no longer reliant on one or two stars, with Bailey Smith, Max Holmes, Lawson Humphries and Gryan Miers all playing excellent football.
But Carlton’s recent form suggests they can make this uncomfortable if they can pressure Geelong’s ball carriers, limit uncontested marks through the corridor and turn the game into a contested battle around stoppage and field position.
Geelong deserve favouritism given their form and system, but Carlton’s recent improvement, contested game and strong recent record against the Cats suggests this could be far closer than many expect. If the Blues can sustain pressure for four quarters and take their opportunities going forward, they are capable of pushing Geelong right to the end.
Take Carlton with the 25.5 point start, while Patrick Cripps can continue his strong form with another 25+ disposal match. Jeremy Cameron is the obvious dangerman and is one that Carlton will need to stop.
- Carlton have won their past two matches against Geelong
- The Blues have won two in a row since Josh Fraser took over the coaching rold
- Patrick Cripps has had 25+ disposals in his past four matches against the Cats
- Jeremy Cameron has averaged over four goals in his past five matches against the Blues
Head to Head
Carlton posted an upset win over Geelong last season by 18 points and have won their past two against Geelong, knocking over the Cats by 63 in Round 15 of 2024.
Standout player performances in recent head to heads have come from;
- Sam Walsh (Blues)- 30+ disposals in his past five matches against Geelong.
- Patrick Cripps (Blues)- 25+ in his past four
- Harry McKay (Blues)- 2+ goals in his past three against the Cats
- Jeremy Cameron (Cats)- 21 goals in his past five outings against Carlton
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Carlton are 3-8 this season but have won two matches in a row since they parted ways with Michael Voss. Under Josh Fraser, they have rediscovered their pressure, contest work and ability to sustain intensity across four quarters.
After struggling badly with momentum swings and second-half fadeouts earlier in the season, Carlton have now produced back-to-back wins through a far more connected brand built around pressure, territory and transition. Against the Western Bulldogs they dominated contested possession (+31) and clearances (+9), before backing it up against Port Adelaide with another strong contest performance and far better balance behind the ball, defeating the Power by 34.
Carlton’s leaders have driven the turnaround, led by Patrick Cripps, who has returned to dominant form through the midfield. The two-time Brownlow Medalist has averaged 31 disposals in the past three rounds and has combined well with Sam Walsh, George Hewett and Jagga Smith. Walsh and Smith have both had 25+ disposals in the past three rounds.
After a slow start, Will Hayward and Ollie Florent are beginning to settle into important roles. Hayward, Mitch McGovern and Brodie Kemp both booted two goals against the Power and the Blues now look far more connected structurally and mentally.
Carlton Blues Team News
Carlton should regain some important personnel over the next couple of weeks, with Jacob Weitering expected to be available after missing the Port Adelaide clash. Zac Williams is also a chance to return, while the coaching staff indicated there are a number of players at VFL level pushing for selection after strong recent form.
The main concern out of the win over Port Adelaide was Matt Carroll, who suffered a knee injury early in the match and was unable to return. Scans were still to come, but it shapes as a potentially significant blow given his impact across the past fortnight. Aside from Carroll, the Blues largely got through the match unscathed and have started to build some continuity around their younger group and midfield rotations.
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Geelong come in with a 10-3 record and have been in red hot form over the past month, chalking up wins by more than the 39.5 point margin against North Melbourne, Collingwood and last year’s premiers, Brisbane, before toppling the ladder leaders heading into Round 11, Sydney, by 27 points at GMHBA Stadium last weekend.
Geelong have averaged just under 120 points per game in that run of wins and it was Jeremy Cameron that booted three against the Swans to take his tally to 30 for the season. Twenty-six of those have come in the past seven rounds.
Max Holmes (35 disposals) and Bailey Smith (32) drove the engine room in the midfield against the Swans, while Lawson Humphries had 33 disposals across half back. Smith has now produced 30 or more disposals in seven of his past seven matches, while Holmes has recorded 25 or more in every game this season.
Geelong’s key strength usually lies in a highly structured, system-driven game built around contest dominance and controlled ball movement, while they also possess a renowned ability to adapt to whatever situation each match brings.
Geelong Cats Team News
Tanner Bruhn was a late out against Sydney and a decision on his availability will be made during the week. James Worpel and Jack Bowes had huge games at VFL level and are a strong chance to come in, given the Cats love to rotate and manage their list, while Ollie Wiltshire and Mitch Knevitt are others that will be considered
Verdict
Blues to stick with the Cats with Cripps to continue solid recent form. Cameron will be hard to stop and four goals is in his range
Carlton +24.5
Line
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Patrick Cripps
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