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Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions Tips & Preview - Lions value for upset in AFL Prelim Final

adam-cusworth
Adam Cusworth
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Last updated: Wed 17 Sep 2025 20:59
Brisbane Lions and Collingwood Magpies face off with a Grand Final spot at stake, in a highly anticipated re-match. Brisbane recently beat Collingwood by 27 points at the MCG and have a strong record at the ground. While Collingwood's defense has improved, Brisbane's attacking options, with Morris and Lohmann in form, give them an edge. Both teams face selection challenges, with key players unavailable for Brisbane and Collingwood monitoring returns from injury. Expert tips favor Brisbane for victory, with Morris and Lohmann tipped for multiple goals.
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Adam Cusworth 17 Sep 2025
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  • Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions expert predictions for Saturday’s Preliminary Final AFL game
  • Brisbane beat Collingwood at the MCG in Round 21 by 27 points
  • Lions are a value pick to reach the Grand Final with Morris & Lohmann to score multiple goals
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Collingwood vs Brisbane Lions MCG
Will Aschroft and the Lions take on Collingwood for a spot in the Grand Final (Getty Images)
  • Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions Preview
  • Head to Head 
  • Collingwood Magpies Form
  • Collingwood Magpies Team News
  • Brisbane Lions Form
  • Brisbane Lions Team News

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions Preview


Reigning premiers Brisbane can advance to another Grand Final with victory over Collingwood. In what is a repaeat of the 2023 Grand Final, I'm the value for the Lions in the head to head market.

  • Brisbane claimed the Round 21 encounter at the MCG by 27 points
  • The Lions have won five of their past six at the home of footy
  • Logan Morris booted six goals the last time the two sides met
  • Kai Lohmann has kicked 2+ goals in his past four matches

Head to Head 


The two sides met at the MCG as recently as Round 21 and it was Brisbane that recorded a 27-point win.

The Magpies claimed the Round 6 fixture at the GABBA and have claimed four of the past five between the two sides, including the 2023 Grand Final by four points as well as a one-point thriller at the MCG last season. 

Collingwood Magpies Form


Collingwood were the dominant side up until Round 17 and had a 14-2 record before losing five of seven and finishing on 16-7. But they regained their mojo with a 24 point win over Adelaide to kick off the finals series. 

After their 64-point Round 22 defeat at the hands of Hawthorn, their structure and team defence has tightened right up, conceding an average of just 63 points in their past three outings. 

Jamie Elliott booted four goals against Adelaide and has gone 2+ in his past three and has 52 for the season.

Collingwood Magpies Team News


Plenty of eyes will be on Jeremy Howe at training with the defender looking to return from a groin injury. Bobby Hill is putting his hand up for selection, despite missing the last couple of months with personal reasons. 

Dan McStay was dropped for the Adelaide final for Mason Cox.

Brisbane Lions Form


Brisbane headed into the finals series on the back of winning seven of nine matches with the last two of those coming against top eight sides, Fremantle and Hawthorn. 

Over the course of the season, they have an 8-5 record against sides in the top eight, including the 38 point loss to Geelong in the Qualifying Final as well as last week’s performance against Gold Coast. The loss to Geelong ended a run of five straight wins at the MCG for the Lions. 

In the five rounds heading into finals, the Lions ranked in the top three in the competition for disposals, clearances and inside 50s. They led the disposals count against Geelong and Gold Coast and turned their -13 inside/50 differential from the Cats match-up to a +11 against the Suns. 

Brisbane Lions Team News


No injuries for Brisbane to come out of the win over the Gold Coast Suns. A number of key players will not be available, including Lachie Neale, Jack Payne and Eric Hipwood, who are all done for the season. 

Verdict

Brisbane are value to make the Grand Final for third time in as many years. Morris and Lohmann can cash in up forward and score multiple goals.

Best Bet1: Brisbane Lions Head to Head @29/25 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Logan Morris To Score 2+ goals @7/10 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Kai Lohmann To Score 2+ goals @13/10 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Brisbane Lions
Head to Head
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Kai Lohmann
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