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Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks Tips & Preview - Geelong to book AFL Grand Final spot

adam-cusworth
Adam Cusworth
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Last updated: Wed 17 Sep 2025 20:59
Geelong Cats enter this match in strong form with a dominant recent record against Hawthorn, including four consecutive wins. Their high-scoring offense remains in top gear, and injury concerns are minimal. The Hawks, while resilient in finals and strong at the MCG, are hampered by key injury doubts, including Gunston and Ginnivan. The Cats are favored to win, boasting more attacking firepower—look out for Dempsey and Gunston as notable goal threats. Recommended bets include Geelong 1-39 margin, Dempsey to score 2+ goals, and Gunston for 3+ goals.
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Adam Cusworth 17 Sep 2025
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  • Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks expert predictions for Friday’s Preliminary Final AFL game
  • Geelong has won last 4 matches vs Hawthorn and are in high-scoring form
  • Cats tipped to win, with Dempsey and Gunston likely goal scorers.
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Geelong vs Hawthorn MCG
Geelong look set to end Hawthorn's run (Getty Images)
  • Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks Preview
  • Head to Head 
  • Geelong Cats Form
  • Geelong Cats Team News
  • Hawthorn Hawks Form
  • Hawthorn Hawks Team News

Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks Preview


The Cats come into this fresh having advanced from a dominant Qualifying Final win over Brisbane a fortnight ago. The Hawks have done it the hard way so far, travelling interstate for their two wins, and they are backed to struggle against Geelong.

  • Geelong have won their past four matches against Hawthorn
  • The Cats have kicked 100+ points in their past seven matches
  • Ollie Dempsey kicked two goals and had 25 disposals against Brisbane
  • Jack Gunston has kicked 3+ goals in seven of his past eight

Head to Head 


The Cats have claimed their past four matches against the Hawks, including the Round 6 fixture this season by seven points. 

Geelong Cats Form


Geelong have won 13 of their past 15 matches and weren’t really tested in the last few rounds of the home and away season against inferior opposition before their blitz against Brisbane in the Qualifying Final. 

The win over the Lions made it five from six at the MCG this season while they are 6-4 against top eight sides in 2025. 

The Cats have kicked over 100 points in their past seven matches and banged on 16.16.112 against Brisbane with Ollie Dempsey booting three and Jeremy Cameron adding another two to take his season total to 85 for the year.

Geelong Cats Team News


Rhys Stanley will be out to prove his fitness with the big man overcoming a hamstring injury. The Cats have just three players on the injury list and are in a healthy state. 

Hawthorn Hawks Form


Hawthorn headed into the finals having won eight of their last 11 home and away matches with those three losses all coming interstate in losses by less than 15 points. 

They claimed a stirring 19-point victory over the GWS Giants in the first week of the finals before knocking out Adelaide in straight sets. 

The Hawks are 5-7 against sides in the eight in 2025 and get to return to the MCG, where they have won their past three are sit at 7-3 for the season. 

Hawthorn Hawks Team News


Plenty of eyes on Jack Gunston and Jack Ginnivan this week with the pair reportedly battling hamstring soreness. They will be assessed at training. 

Calsher Dear missed with the same issue last weekend and is unlikely to be available. 

Retiring veteran Luke Breust would have been a possible replacement for Ginnivan but seriously injured his knee at VFL level, putting an early end to his career. 

Verdict

Geelong to have too much firepower and kick away late. Gunston and Dempsey among the goals for respective sides.

Best Bet1: Geelong 1-39 Winning Margin @9/8 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Oliver Dempsey To Score 2+ goals @29/10 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Jack Gunston To Score 3+ goals @67/50 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Geelong 1-39
Winning Margin
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Jack Gunston
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