St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks Tips - Hawks to grind out a win in tight one over the Saints
Hawthorn Hawks are tipped to continue their strong form at Marvel Stadium when they face the St Kilda Saints in Round 12. Despite St Kilda’s defensive resilience, a mounting injury list and inconsistency against top teams place them at a disadvantage. Hawthorn’s transition play, greater depth, and returning players should give them the edge, particularly in the second half. Recent history suggests a close match, but with key forwards in form, Hawthorn are favored to win in the 1-39 point margin.
- Hawthorn have won last 7 at Marvel Stadium and are in strong form.
- St Kilda injury list and lack of scoring power are concerns.
- Tip: Hawthorn by 1-39 points; Nick Watson likely to kick 2+ goals.
St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks Preview
- St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks Preview
- Head to Head
- St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
- St Kilda Saints Team News
- Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
- Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn can continue their strong recent record at Marvel Stadium when they take on St Kilda on Thursday night.
The Hawks snapped a three-match winless streak with their victory over Adelaide in Launceston last round and come in with a 7-3-1 record, while St Kilda slipped to 5-6 after going down to Fremantle in Perth.
Expect the Saints to make a to make this a scrap for large periods with their defensive structure and contest work. They have shown throughout the season that they can stay in games against stronger opposition.
But the Hawks shape as the side with more weapons and more avenues to goal in the Round 12 clash, particularly under the roof at Marvel Stadium, where they have won their past seven. Their ball movement and transition game should be far cleaner in those conditions than it was in Launceston, while their ability to generate repeat inside 50s through pressure and intercept play looms as a major factor.
Hawthorn’s midfield also responded strongly after being challenged at the contest last week and that should hold them in good stead against a Saints side that has struggled to maintain four-quarter intensity against the better teams.
St Kilda’s injury list is another major concern heading into this match. The Saints are likely to be without several key players across all parts of the ground, including important rebound and forward-half options, while Hawthorn are set to regain depth and flexibility at selection. That should become more significant as the game wears on.
The Saints have been competitive in most of their losses this season and the recent history between these sides suggests another close contest is likely. But Hawthorn’s pressure, speed on transition and greater depth across the ground should eventually break St Kilda open in the second half.
Take the Hawks in the 1-39-point bracket with Nick Watson a lock for 2+ goals, while Mitch Lewis appeals as value for multiple majors.
- Hawthorn have won their past seven matches at Marvel Stadium.
- The past five matches between the two sides have been decided by 30 points or less.
- Mitch Lewis has kicked 11 goals in his past four matches at Marvel Stadium.
- Nick Watson has kicked 2+ goals in his past six matches.
Head to Head
Hawthorn have won the past two against St Kilda, including the Round 17 fixture at Marvel Stadium by 20 points. The past five matches between the sides have all been decided by 30 points or less. Standout player performances in recent head-to-head clashes have come from:
- Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (Saints) – 43 disposals in the most recent meeting and averaging 35 in his past three against the brown and gold.
- Nick Watson (Hawks) – two goals in each of his past two against St Kilda.
- Mitch Lewis (Hawks) – five goals in his past two matches against the Saints.
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
Despite an off-season that saw them land a number of key recruits, St Kilda seem to be treading water once again. They head in with a 5-6 win-loss record after their 30-point loss to Fremantle in Round 11 and have strung together consecutive wins just once this season, with those victories coming against West Coast and Carlton a month ago.
The Saints have now lost five of six from sides that made finals last season and were again unable to sustain the pressure against Fremantle in the final quarter last weekend. They have been competitive defensively for much of the season but continue to struggle for consistent scoring power against the stronger teams.
Jack Sinclair was among their best players against Fremantle with 29 disposals and continues to provide plenty of drive from half-back and through the midfield. Max Hall continued his breakout campaign with 25 disposals, nine clearances and two goals, while Mattaes Phillipou also had some important moments around stoppage.
St Kilda Saints Team News
Dougal Howard is likely to miss with the calf injury he sustained against Fremantle, while Rowan Marshall is expected to be available despite copping a knock late in the match. Jack Higgins remains sidelined after minor surgery, while Mitch Owens, Liam Ryan, Dan Butler and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera are also unavailable. Butler appears the most likely of that group to return.
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Hawthorn returned to the winner’s list with a hard-fought nine-point victory over Adelaide in Launceston last Thursday night. After being beaten badly around the contest early, the Hawks lifted their clearance work and pressure after quarter-time and controlled large parts of the final three quarters.
Nick Watson again provided plenty of spark in attack with two goals and 11 score involvements and has now kicked multiple goals in his past six matches. Blake Hardwick’s move forward proved a masterstroke with four goals, while Mitch Lewis and Mabior Chol competed strongly aerially and helped bring Hawthorn’s smaller forwards into the game.
The Hawks continue to look at their best when they can generate overlap run from half-back and move the ball quickly through the corridor. Their intercept game was also important against Adelaide, particularly through Josh Weddle and Jarman Impey.
Josh Ward has now collected 20 or more disposals in his past five matches, while Karl Amon has registered 25+ in four of his past five. Hawthorn now return to Marvel Stadium, where they have won seven consecutive matches.
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn escaped the Adelaide clash without any injury concerns and could regain key reinforcements in the coming weeks. Will Day successfully returned through the VFL and is edging closer to senior selection, while Jack Gunston is also nearing a return. Tom Barrass may require another week, while Flynn Perez pushed his claims with a strong VFL performance last weekend.
Verdict
Hawthorn in the 1-39 point bracket with Lewis and Watson on for multiple goals
Hawthorn Hawks 1-39
Winning Margin 1-39
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