- Latest Keno News
- Hit Probability Table: 80-Ball Pool, 20 Drawn
- RTP Comparison by Platform
- How Pick Count Affects Expected Return
- Recent Big Wins on Keno
- Where to Play Keno
- Keno Variants
- The Single Biggest Mistake: Picking Too Many Numbers
- Responsible Gambling
- FAQs
TL;DR
- Land-based keno returns approximately 70% RTP. Crypto keno at Stake Originals: 96%. Same game, 26-point gap.
- Hitting all 10 numbers on a 10-spot: 1 in 8.9 million probability.
- The C$74,000 Chimper win at Rainbet came from a 4-spot selection, not a 10-spot.
70% is the typical RTP at land-based keno lounges in Australia and North America. Crypto keno at Stake Originals runs 96%. The same mechanic, the same 80-ball pool. A 26-percentage-point gap depending on which platform you use.
Land-based keno is a worse game than American roulette by house-edge comparison. At least American roulette publishes its 5.26% openly.
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30%
Land-based keno house edge. Crypto keno: 4%. The same game; a 26-point gap.
Hit Probability Table: 80-Ball Pool, 20 Drawn
Standard keno uses a pool of 80 numbered balls with 20 drawn per game. Probability of matching n picks from a selection of k numbers follows the hypergeometric distribution.
| Picks (k) | Hits required | Probability | Odds (1 in) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 25.00% | 4 |
| 2 | 2 | 5.06% | 20 |
| 3 | 3 | 1.39% | 72 |
| 4 | 4 | 0.31% | 327 |
| 5 | All 5 | 0.06% | 1,551 |
| 6 | All 6 | 0.01% | 8,072 |
| 7 | All 7 | 0.00% | 46,433 |
| 8 | All 8 | 0.00% | 298,586 |
| 9 | All 9 | 0.00% | 2,177,760 |
| 10 | All 10 | 0.00000551% (1 in ~8.9M) | 8,911,711 |
| 10 | 7 or more | 0.52% | 192 |
Most keno paytables pay partial matches. The probability of hitting 7 or more from a 10-pick selection is 0.522%, approximately 1 in 192 games. The full 10-from-10 hit: 0.00000551%, or 1 in approximately 8.9 million draws.
Formula for matching exactly m numbers from k picks when 20 are drawn from 80: P = [C(k,m) x C(80-k, 20-m)] / C(80,20).
RTP Comparison by Platform
| Platform | Type | RTP | House edge | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake Originals Keno (10-spot classic) | Provably fair crypto | 96% | 4% | Transparent RTP published |
| Rainbet Keno | Provably fair crypto | ~96% | ~4% | Provably fair verified |
| Typical crypto casino keno | Provably fair or certified RNG | 96-98% | 2-4% | Varies by operator and paytable |
| Land-based keno (Australia, North America) | Physical draw | ~70% | ~30% | Typically undisclosed, derived from paytables |
| Land-based video keno terminal | RNG | 65-80% | 20-35% | Highly variable; rarely disclosed |
The land-based RTP of approximately 70% is derived from observing paytables at major land-based keno lounges and calculating expected return against hit probabilities. Land-based operators in most jurisdictions are not required to disclose keno RTP prominently.
Crypto keno at 96% is not a good game in absolute terms. A 4% house edge compares unfavourably with roulette, blackjack and baccarat. It is the only version of keno worth touching, and only when RTP is explicitly published.
How Pick Count Affects Expected Return
Operators often configure paytables to run lower RTPs on high pick counts, because those configurations are less commonly analysed by players focused on top prize size rather than probability of reaching it.
Practical implications:
- 1-pick keno: hit probability is exactly 25% (1 in 4). The payout must be at least 3:1 for any positive EV. Check the specific paytable.
- 10-pick keno: the full-match probability is 1 in 8.9 million. No standard paytable compensates fairly for this hit rate.
The general principle: fewer picks produce higher individual hit probabilities, lower variance and outcomes closer to the published RTP. More picks produce lottery-style variance with top-prize probabilities in the millions-to-one range. The C$74,000 Chimper hit at Rainbet came from a 4-spot selection. Not a 10-spot.
Recent Big Wins on Keno
You can find the latest Keno wins on the site's dedicated Big Wins page, alongside wins from other Originals-style games, slots, and tables.
Where to Play Keno
- Rainbet, MAXBET, Provably fair Keno; multiple documented six-figure hits in 2026; fully transparent RTP publication.
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Keno Variants
Classic Keno (80-ball, 20 drawn)
The standard format. Hit probability is governed by the hypergeometric distribution. Always check the paytable for partial-match payouts: these determine the actual RTP more than the top-prize structure.
Power Keno / Super Keno
Power Keno (last ball): if your last matching number is the 20th ball drawn, the payout is multiplied. Super Keno (first ball): if the first ball matches any of your picks, the payout is multiplied. These add variance without necessarily improving expected return. Check the modified paytable to calculate the actual RTP change.
Heads-Up Keno (Duel Format)
Some "Originals" platforms offer a heads-up format where two players compete on the same draw. The house edge is collected on the differential. RTP varies by format; check the published figure before playing.
The Single Biggest Mistake: Picking Too Many Numbers
A 10-spot keno game with $1 stakes and 70% RTP costs you $300 in expectation across 1,000 games. The probability of hitting the jackpot in those 1,000 games is 0.011%.
Picking 10 numbers and expecting a meaningful chance at the top prize is the central keno misconception. The probability of matching all 10 from 80 drawn is 1 in approximately 8.9 million, comparable to lottery-level odds. A player who plays 10-spot keno at $1 per game at 70% land-based RTP loses $0.30 in expectation on every draw. Over 1,000 games, the expected total loss is $300.
Choose fewer picks. Play at a provably fair crypto platform with a published RTP above 95%. Treat the game as what it is: a negative-EV lottery with short draw intervals.
Responsible Gambling
Keno is a high-house-edge game even at its best. At 96% RTP, it runs a 4% house edge. At land-based 70%, it is one of the worst-value mainstream gambling products available. Only play at provably fair platforms with published RTPs.
If gambling is causing harm:
- GambleAware.org (UK and international)
- GamCare.org.uk: 0808 8020 133 (UK)
- BeGambleAware.org
- Gamblinghelponline.org.au (Australia)
- 1-800-GAMBLER (US)
18+ only. 21+ at Stake.us and Shuffle.us. T&Cs apply on all welcome offers.
FAQs
- Can the same numbers keep hitting in keno?
Each keno draw is an independent event from a randomised pool of 80 balls. Numbers that "keep hitting" represent normal random variation. In 20 draws from 80, individual number frequency varies around 25%; runs of the same numbers appear regularly in any sufficiently long sequence. They have no predictive value.
- Is there a keno number strategy?
No number strategy improves expected return. The house edge is embedded in the paytable, not in the numbers drawn. Choosing sequential numbers, patterns, birthdays or "cold" numbers produces identical EV to any other selection of the same quantity.
- What is the maximum win at Stake Originals Keno?
Stake Originals Keno publishes a maximum win that varies by pick count and stake level. The top payout for a full-match 10-spot hit at maximum stake is typically in the millions of dollars, but the probability of hitting it in any realistic session is near zero.
- Why do crypto casinos publish keno RTPs but land-based ones don't?
Crypto casinos with provably fair systems publish RTPs to demonstrate transparency and attract players who check the numbers. Land-based keno operators in most jurisdictions face no legal requirement to display keno RTP, and their business model benefits from players not being able to compare house edges easily.
