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Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Betting Tips - Struggling Broncos to be hit by Storm

ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker
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Last updated: Thu 19 Mar 2026 09:47
The Melbourne Storm prepares for a high-stakes clash against the Brisbane Broncos, aiming to avenge last year's Grand Final defeat. Despite a stellar start, including a 52-4 opening win, the Storm is navigating challenges from player turnover with star performances from Harry Grant. In contrast, the Brisbane Broncos are off to a wobbly start, losing consecutively with significant defensive lapses. They conceded 66 points in two games, showing vulnerabilities. Key recommendations for the match include betting on Melbourne with an -8.5 handicap and aiming for an under 55.5 game total.
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Ryan Tucker 19 Mar 2026
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  • Melbourne Storm eye revenge against Brisbane Broncos after last year's Grand Final loss.
  • Melbourne boasts the league's top attack with impressive scoring stats.
  • Brisbane struggles early, losing back-to-back games with defensive issues.
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melbourne storm brisbane broncos
Melbourne Storm to beat Brisbane Broncos (Getty Images)

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Preview


Melbourne Storm can get revenge on the Brisbane Broncos is a rematch of last year's Grand Final. The Broncos have had a disappointing start to the season, while have the best attacking team in the league in the opening weeks and can cover the line in this one. 

  • Melbourne had won 12 straight regular season games against Brisbane prior to their Round 26 loss last year.
  • Overs have hit in 63% of games this season. The average over the past 7 seasons is 50/50.
  • Melbourne’s opponents average just 14.6 pts per game at AAMI park since the start of 2021 season.
  • Sua Fa’logo has scored 5 tries for Melbourne so far this season, all in the second half of the games.

Head to Head 


Melbourne had dominated this matchup up until last year. Twelve straight regular season wins dating back to the 2019 season was broken when the Broncos won 30-14 in the penultimate round when the Storm rested a bunch of stars.

The Broncos then went on to win the Grand Final 26-22. 

Nine of the last 13 games have gone Under the Game Total while the Storm hold a 10-3 ATS record in the regular season since 2019.

Melbourne Storm's Attack Does The Talking


The Melbourne Storm continue to do Melbourne Storm things, a 52-4 win in round 1 followed by a 46-20 win last weekend. The pre-season chatter of a fall-away because of player turnover has been squashed.

Harry Grant is staking his claim as the best player in the world right now, leading the Storm from the front with elite running, tryscoring and direction on the park.

The Storm lead the league in Points, Completion Rate, Linebreaks and Run Metres while featuring in the top 5 in a host of other metrics.

Brisbane Broncos Lose Back-to-Back Games


Brisbane had not lost back to back games to start a season since 2021 but were unable to stem the flow of points from Parramatta last weekend, eventually losing 40-32. 

They have now conceded 66 points across two games and while the scoring came back last week, the opposition defence was not much chop.

They completed just 75% of their sets v Parra and still allowed their opponent to run for over 1500 metres. Twelve errors, eight penalties and four infringements gave their opponent unnecessary chances.

Verdict

Take Melbourne on the line of -8.5. Take the Game Total Under 55.5 and for Sua Fa’alogo in the tryscorer markets.
Best Bet1: Melbourne -8.5 Line @9/10 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 55.5 Game Total @9/10 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Sua Fa'alogo Anytime Tryscorer @9/10 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Sua Fa'alogo Last Tryscorer @10/1 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Melbourne -8.5
Line
@9/10 - 3 Units
£30 Free Bet
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Under 55.5
Game Total
@9/10 - 2 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
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Bet at bet365
Sua Fa'alogo
Anytime Tryscorer
@9/10 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
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Bet at Star Sports
Sua Fa'alogo
Last Tryscorer
@10/1 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
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Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

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