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Lorenzo Sonego vs Andrey Rublev Live Stream & Predictions - Rublev to Win in 3 Sets in Barcelona

john-eastwood
John Eastwood
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Last updated: Wed 15 Apr 2026 12:02
In an exciting match at the ATP Barcelona, Lorenzo Sonego is set to take on Andrey Rublev. Sonego, recently returning from a wrist injury, will be looking to leverage his clay court advantage over Rublev, who has had a patchy form lately. Despite Rublev being the favorite, his volatility may lengthen the match, potentially resulting in a game count exceeding 21.5. Both players have shown varying strengths on different surfaces, making this clash particularly intriguing.
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John Eastwood 15 Apr 2026
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  • Sonego has played only 5 matches this year
  • The Italian has a 2-1 clay court record against Rublev
  • I am avoiding the win market and focusing on games
Expired
Lorenzo Sonego Andrey Rublev hands
Lorenzo Sonego beat Andrey Rublev in 5 sets at the 2023 French Open (Getty)

Andrey Rublev is a short priced favourite here but remains a volatile player. I can’t take the odds against Lorenzo Sonego, this one to go over 21.5 games.


 Lorenzo Sonego Andrey Rublev
Nationality Italy Russia
Age 30 (11 May 1995) 28 (20 October 1997)
Height 6'3" (1.91m) 6'2" (1.88m)
Plays Right-Handed Right-Handed
World Ranking 66 15
Career High 21 (October 2021) 5 (September 2021)
ATP Tour Titles 4 17
ATP Barcelona Best Result Second Round (2022) Quarter-Finals (2021)

HTH


Andrey Rublev is 4-2 against Lorenzo Sonego but 1-2 on clay courts.

YearEventSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
2025 Canada Masters Hard R32 Rublev 5-7 6-4 6-3
2024 Metz Hard R16 Rublev 7-6 7-5
2023 French Open Clay R32 Sonego 5-7 0-6 6-3 7-6 6-3
2021 Rome Masters Clay QF Sonego 3-6 6-4 6-3
2020 Vienna Hard F Rublev 6-4 6-4
2016 Cortina Challenger Clay R16 Rublev 6-3 7-5

Sonego Back from Injury


Lorenzo Sonego has played only five matches this year, going out in the second round in Hong Kong and the Australian Open.

The Italian spent nearly three months on the sidelines to deal with a wrist injury.

The 30-year-old was involved in a roller coaster match in the first round in Barcelona. He came through to beat Pedro Martinez 6-2 2-6 6-4, saving 6/10 break points.

Rublev in Poor Form


Andrey Rublev is 12-7 this year, his best performances coming in semi-final appearances in Hong Kong, Doha and Dubai. He has lost four of his last five clashes against Top 50 players.

The Russian lost his final three matches on hard courts, beaten by Tallon Griekspoor, Gabriel Diallo and Alejandro Tabilo. He competed in Monte Carlo last week where he suffered a 6-4 6-1 second round exit to Zizou Bergs.

Rublev came through a tricky first round match in Barcelona, saving 4/7 break points in a 6-4 7-5 victory over Mariano Navone.

Verdict

Lorenzo Sonego has played only five matches this year but has the weapons to frustrate Andrey Rublev. I think the Russian will get through in Barcelona, but it might take longer than expected.

Best Bet1: Over 21.5 Games Total Games @5/6 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Andrey Rublev Win 2-1 Set Betting @3/1 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Over 21.5 Games
Total Games
@5/6 - 2 Units
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