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Essendon vs Hawthorn Round 1 Tips – Bombers to push the Hawks in Friday night footy

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Wed 11 Mar 2026 07:10

Adam Cusworth 11 Mar 2026

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Essendon seeks to capitalize on midfield strength vs. Hawthorn's finals aims.
Hawks aim to rebound after loss; Bombers look for early-season triumph.
High potential for a high-scoring game with both teams' attacking prowess.

Expired

Essendon and Hawthorn go at it at the MCG (Getty Images)

Essendon can push Hawthorn as the two rivals go head to head on Friday night in what shapes as one of the more intriguing contests of the round.

Hawthorn enter the season with genuine finals expectations after last year’s Preliminary Final appearance but are under pressure after a disappointing Opening Round that saw them go down to an injury decimated GWS outfit by 27 points.

Essendon step out for the first time in 2026 and are attempting to re-establish themselves after a disappointing 2025 season derailed by injuries and inconsistency.

With both sides capable of playing attacking football and the recent history between the clubs producing high scoring matches, this encounter shapes as an important early-season litmus test.

Essendon’s midfield remains their biggest strength and could prove the key to keeping them competitive. Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett give the Bombers strong ball-winning ability around stoppage and their ability to generate clearance dominance was evident in pre-season match simulation where they controlled long passages of play.

If Essendon can win enough contested ball and provide supply inside 50, they have the forward targets capable of capitalising, particularly through emerging key forward Nate Caddy and the experience of Peter Wright.

The Hawks were well beaten at the contest and clearances and struggled to halt the Giants’ ability to move the ball quickly into dangerous areas. Dylan Moore, Karl Amon and Jarman Impey were well down and are keys if the Hawks are to rebound.

But this looms as a game where momentum swings could decide the outcome and the Bombers are dangerous if they get a sniff. They have an excellent recent record against the Hawks and are the play at the line, with the central figure in last year’s trade drama between the two clubs, Zach Merrett to find plenty of the footy.

Essendon have won four of the past five matches between the two sides
The past four matches between Hawthorn and Essendon have hit the ‘over’
Dylan Moore has averaged 27.5 disposals in his past four matches at the MCG
Zach Merrett has had 25+ disposals in his past five matches against the Hawks

Head to Head

Hawthorn defeated Essendon by 26 points in the corresponding fixture last season and it was built on Jai Newcombe’s grunt work in the middle (25 disposals), while Karl Amon patrolled across half back with 28.

Essendon can take confidence from the fact that they won the four matches between the two sides prior to that and have matched up well against the brown and gold in the past.

Essendon Form Analysis

Essendon endured a difficult 2025 campaign, finishing 15th on the ladder with a 6-17 record. Injuries decimated their season and the Bombers collapsed late, losing their final 13 matches with eight defeats by margins greater than 40 points.

Their pre-season signs have been more encouraging. In match simulation against Richmond the Bombers controlled the contest for long periods. Darcy Parish starred with 31 disposals and eight clearances while Nate Caddy booted four goals.

In the Community Series, the Bombers went down to St Kilda by 41 points, Archie Roberts picked up 29 disposals, while Peter Wright scored two goals

Essendon Team News

Essendon still have several players unavailable early in the season. Nick Bryan, Tom Edwards and Lewis Hayes remain long-term absentees due to ACL injuries. Jordan Ridley is out for another few weeks with a calf injury.

Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett will again lead the midfield, while Nate Caddy has impressed during the pre-season and looks likely to feature prominently in the Bombers’ forward structure.

Hawthorn Form Analysis

Hawthorn enjoyed an outstanding 2025 campaign, finishing 8th with a 15-8 record before making a stunning run to the Preliminary Final.

However, their pre-season campaign produced mixed signals. The Hawks impressed in match simulation against Geelong, winning 16.15 (111) to 14.10 (94) with Newcombe and Josh Ward driving clearance numbers and Jack Gunston providing a reliable target inside 50. However, defensive transition began to emerge as a concern during the Community Series loss to the Western Bulldogs, where they conceded 18 goals and struggled to contain the Bulldogs’ ball movement.

Those issues resurfaced in the Opening Round clash with GWS. The Giants dominated the contest and clearance battle for much of the night, limiting Hawthorn’s usual ball movement. By three-quarter time Dylan Moore had just seven disposals, Karl Amon 12 and Jarman Impey eight as the Hawks struggled to generate run from defence. Jai Newcombe battled hard with 25 disposals and Gunston kicked four goals, but the lack of midfield support and defensive coverage allowed GWS to control the game for long periods.

Hawthorn Team News

Hawthorn got through their opener against the Giants with no concerns out of the medical room. Cam McKenzie is a possible inclusion after missing that match with concussion

Verdict

Essendon Bombers v Hawthorn Hawks

Bombers to push the Hawks with Merrett amongst the disposals, Moore to rebound for Hawks quiet performance in opening round

Essendon Bombers

Handicap +28.5

@9/10 - 1 Unit

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Zach Merrett

To Have 25+ disposals

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One of Australia's top tipsters, Adam provides tips for horse racing every day of the week as well as AFL previews. He is one of the top ranked experts on the Great Tip Off each month and has featured on Blackbook, Punters, Racingbase and many more.