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Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Round 1 Tips- Swans to continue hot start to 2026

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Wed 11 Mar 2026 07:08

Adam Cusworth 11 Mar 2026

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Sydney Swans aim to maintain winning momentum against Brisbane Lions.
Key matchup: Sydney's midfield strength vs. Brisbane's forward pressure.
High-scoring game expected; watch out for stars like Errol Gulden and Lachie Neale.

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Sydney and Brisbane feature in one of the better matches of AFL Round 1 (Getty Images)

Sydney will capitalise on their early season momentum with a win over the reigning premiers, Brisbane, in what shapes as an early-season classic.

The two sides renew a rivalry that has produced some of the AFL’s biggest matches in recent seasons. The Lions have dominated the head-to-head in recent years, including the 2024 Grand Final triumph, but Sydney were victorious the last time the two sides met and look a very different proposition to the injury-hit side that slid down the ladder in 2025. They are looking like they will be a serious finals prospect 2026.

Their midfield is once again humming and shapes as the key to the contest. Errol Gulden, Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney combined superbly in the season opener and provide Sydney with a balanced mix of outside class and inside power.

Brodie Grundy’s presence in the ruck gives the Swans first use around stoppages and allows their runners to generate quick ball movement through the corridor. If that midfield can match Brisbane’s contested strength, Sydney have the attacking weapons to capitalise through a dangerous forward line led by Charlie Curnow and Logan McDonald.

Brisbane’s engine room remains one of the league’s most formidable, with Lachie Neale continuing to rack up huge numbers around the contest and the Lions’ system built around territory dominance and forward pressure.

The Lions will create scoring opportunities through their relentless pressure and transition game, but Sydney’s ability to move the ball quickly and use the SCG dimensions to their advantage could stretch Brisbane defensively.

Take the home side in the 1-39 bracket with Neale and Gulden the key contributers for either side in what shapes as a high scoring match, given the output of both sides last weekend.

Sydney defeated Brisbane the last time the two sides met
The Swans have won four of their past five matches at the SCG
Lachie Neale has had 30+ disposals in his past four matches (excluding the Grand Final when coming on as the sub
Errol Gulden has averaged 27 disposals in his past four matches against the Lions

Head to Head

Sydney chalked up a memorable two-point win the last time the two sides met, which was in Round 22 last season at the GABBA but Brisbane won the corresponding match at the SCG in Round 1 of 2025 by four points.

The Lions have won five of their past six against the Swans, including the 2024 Grand Final by 60 points. They have won the past two at the SCG.

Sydney Swans Form Analysis

Sydney’s 2025 campaign ultimately finished with a 12–11 record and 10th position on the ladder, but the raw finishing position does not tell the full story. Injuries disrupted large portions of their season before the Swans surged late, winning six of their final eight matches to re-establish themselves as a dangerous side heading into 2026.

That momentum carried into the pre-season where Sydney looked sharp with wins in match simulation and in the Community Series against the Gold Coast and Western Bulldogs- those two were impressive in Round 1.

Sydney carried that form directly into Opening Round with an emphatic win over Carlton at the SCG. Gulden starred with 27 disposals, while Charlie Curnow and Joel Amartey booted three. The Swans overwhelmed the Blues with their midfield pressure and forward efficiency and looked unstoppable in the second half with 18 goals, including 12 in an electric third term.

Sydney Swans Team News

Isaac Heeney copped a knock to the head in the win over Carlton but was cleared of concussion. The Swans have a few on the injury list but unlike last season, their core majority of star players are fit and firing.

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis

Brisbane enter the 2026 season as the reigning premiers after an outstanding 2025 campaign that culminated in a Grand Final victory. The Lions finished 4th during the home-and-away season before producing a dominant finals series built around their powerful midfield and relentless forward pressure.

Their pre-season preparations suggested little drop-off from that level and included an impressive win over the Gold Coast in a high scoring match.

Brisbane’s Opening Round performance showed flashes of their best football but also highlighted the challenges of maintaining premiership intensity. Lachie Neale had 39 disposals in the five-point loss to the Bulldogs, while Dayne Zorko and Will Ashcroft both had 30+. Charlie Cameron and Logan Morris combined for seven goals.

Brisbane Lions Team News

Brisbane lose Hugh McCluggage to a calf injury and he joins the likes of Sam Draper and Eric Hipwood on the sidelines. Harris Andrews was involved in a spoil that left the Bulldogs player, Arthur Jones, concussed, and will come under match review scrutiny.

Verdict

Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions

Swans to edge past the Lions with Gulden setting up from the midfield, Neale to find plenty of the footy for the Lions

Sydney Swans 1-39

Winning Margin 1-39

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