Home
AFL

This preview has expired.

See all our latest betting tips or suggested betting sites

Melbourne vs St Kilda AFL Round 1 Tips – New look Saints to have the answers despite stuttering start

Adam Cusworth

Editor

Last updated: Wed 11 Mar 2026 07:05

Adam Cusworth 11 Mar 2026

Share this article

St Kilda aims to recover from an opening-round loss against a reshaped Melbourne.
Melbourne enters the match with a new coach and several key player departures.
St Kilda's history of wins and strong midfield offer a strategic advantage.

Expired

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera was the match winner the last time the two sides met (Getty Images)

St Kilda will bounce back with a win after going down to Collingwood by 12 points in the Opening Round.

Both sides come in with new-look line ups and the Saints unveiled their contningent of new faces against the Pies with Liam Ryan, Jack Silvagni, Tom De Koning and Sam Flanders all producing meaningful contributions.

Melbourne were one of eight sides that did not feature in the Opening Round and begin a new era with Steven King at the helm with the 2021 premiership coach, Simon Goodwin, parting ways with the club last year. The Demons are entering the season with a significantly reshaped lineup on the field as well following several high-profile departures. Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver leave a whole in the midfield, while the key defender, Steven May, has moved on.

St Kilda’s midfield and half-back drive appear well suited to exploit Melbourne’s evolving lineup. Jack Sinclair continues to be one of the competition’s most prolific ball winners and has consistently performed strongly against the Demons. If the Saints can control possession through Sinclair, Flanders and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, their ability to generate quick ball movement into attack should create scoring opportunities.

Melbourne will look to generate pressure through their younger midfield group and forward energy, with Kozzy Pickett expected to play a key role around stoppages and inside 50. Emerging players such as Caleb Windsor and Harvey Langford will be asked to shoulder more responsibility through the middle, while Brody Mihocek provides a strong target up forward. However, with several experienced leaders unavailable, the Demons may find it difficult to match St Kilda’s cohesion and ball movement across four quarters.

Recent history between the sides favours the Saints and the signs from Opening Round suggest they have the midfield class and attacking balance to maintain that trend.

St Kilda won both matches between the two sides last season
Jack Sinclair has had 30+ disposals in three of his past four matches against Melbourne
Sam Flanders has had 25+ disposals in his past three matches against Melbourne and had 28 last weekend
Melbourne lost 10 of their last 12 in 2025, St Kilda won four of their last five

Head to Head

St Kilda produced one of the most stunning comebacks of all time to defeat Melbourne by six points in Round 20 last season. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera starred with 34 disposals and four goals, including two in the last 30 seconds to win the game.

Wanganeen-Milera and Jack Sinclair have averaged over 30 disposals in the last four matches between the two sides, while Jack Higgins has kicked seven from his past three. The Saints won both encounters between the two sides in 2025.

Melbourne Form Analysis

Melbourne finished 14th in 2025 with a 7-16 record after losing 10 of their final 12 matches. The difficult campaign ultimately led to the departure of premiership coach Simon Goodwin.

Their match simulation clash against North Melbourne provided more encouraging signs. Melbourne controlled the contest as Kozzy Pickett starred forward of centre while the midfield generated strong clearance numbers.

Key pre-season takeaways: Melbourne’s forward pressure and midfield structure appear sharper entering the new season.

Melbourne Team News

Melbourne enter the match with a dramatically reshaped list following a turbulent off-season that saw the departures of Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Steven May. The Demons are expected to field a younger midfield mix, with Kysaiah “Kozzy” Pickett likely to feature heavily through the centre alongside emerging talents Harvey Langford and Caleb Windsor, while recruit Jack Steele and defender Trent Rivers will provide additional experience around the ball.

Exciting forward Latrelle Pickett has impressed during the pre-season and is set to make his AFL debut, while off-season recruit Brody Mihocek is expected to return after clearing concussion protocols. Melbourne will, however, be missing several key players. Jack Viney (Achilles) is not expected back until at least Round 8, Jake Bowey (Lisfranc) is targeting a mid-season return and Jai Culley remains unlikely to be available after fracturing his arm.

St Kilda Form Analysis

St Kilda opened the season with a 12 point loss over Collingwood. The Saints controlled portions of the contest through strong midfield pressure and registered 63 inside 50s to 40 but Collingwood’s clean use in front of goals proved to be the difference.

Jack Sinclair had a team-high 35 disposals, while Cooper Sharman and Mitch Owens booted two goals apiece. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera was limited to 19 disposals.

In 2025, St Kilda finished 12th with a 9-13 record, but their form improved late in the year as they won four of their final five matches. Their pre-season reinforced that improvement, dominating a match simulation against Gold Coast before defeating Essendon 17.13 (115) to 10.12 (72) in the Community Series. In that match Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera kicked four goals while Marcus Windhager collected 27 disposals, highlighting the Saints’ improved ball movement and attacking structure heading into the new season.

St Kilda Team News

Todd Marshall will miss with concussion, leaving Tom De Koning on sole ruck duties. St Kilda’s recruits made an impression last week with De Koning joined by Liam Ryan, Jack Silvagni and Sam Flanders as new additions to the side.

Verdict

Melbourne Demons v St Kilda Saints

Saints to deliver after stuttering start. Sinclair and Flanders to find plenty of footy

St Kilda Saints

Match Winner

@11/20 - 1 Unit

£30 Free Bet

Use promo code NEWBONUS

Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

Bet at Hollywood bets

Jack Sinclair

To Have 30+ disposals

@7/9 - 1 Unit

Bet £10 Get £30

with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad

Bet at bet365

Sam Flanders

To Have 30+ disposals

@11/10 - 1 Unit

Bet £20 Get £10

Use promo code NEWBONUS

18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org

Bet at Star Sports