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Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Predictions & Live Stream - Value on Cobolli in Madrid

john-eastwood
John Eastwood
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Last updated: Fri 01 May 2026 13:38
Flavio Cobolli faces Alexander Zverev in the ATP Madrid quarter-final amid rising form and recent wins over Top 10 players, including Zverev himself. The Italian, who has beaten Zverev twice on hard courts and recently overcame Daniil Medvedev, represents great betting value at big odds. Zverev, meanwhile, continues to search for his 2026 breakthrough after five semi-final losses. With free streaming options available, Cobolli could confirm his status as a genuine top-10 contender with another upset in Madrid.
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John Eastwood 01 May 2026
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  • Cobolli recently beat Zverev in straight sets in Munich
  • The World No.13 is coming off a victory over Daniil Medvedev
  • I am backing the Italian to win at big odds in Madrid
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Flavio Cobolli Alexander Zverev
Flavio Cobolli will meet Alexander Zverev for the fourth tmie in Madrid (Getty)

Flavio Cobolli has beaten two Top 10 players this month, one of those victories coming against Alexander Zverev. I don’t think these odds make much sense, the value on the Italian in Madrid.


 Flavio Cobolli Alexander Zverev
Nationality Italy Germany
Age 23 (6 May 2002) 29 (20 April 1997)
Height 6'0" (1.83m) 6'6" (1.98m)
Plays Right-Handed Right-Handed
World Ranking 13 3
Career High 13 (March 2026) 2 (June 2022)
ATP Tour Titles 3 24
2026 ATP Tour Titles 1 0
ATP Madrid Best Result Third Round (2024, 2025) Winner (2018, 2021)

HTH


Alexander Zverev won the first two encounters against Flavio Cobolli before being beaten in Munich this month.

YearEventSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
2026 Munich Clay SF Cobolli 6-3 6-3
2025 Halle Grass QF Zverev 6-4 7-6
2025 French Open Clay R32 Zverev 6-2 7-6 6-1

Cobolli Close to Top 10


Flavio Cobolli won the title in Acapulco and went deep on clay in Munich. He beat Alexander Zverev on his way to the final where he lost to Ben Shelton.

The Italian had a slow start in Madrid before powering past Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-7 6-1 6-4. He was too good for qualifier Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, winning 6-3 6-2 in 73 minutes.

The 23-year-old picked up another Top 10 win the fourth round, defeating Daniil Medvedev 6-3 5-7 6-4. He won 9/11 (82%) of his 2nd serves in the third set where he didn’t allow a break point.

Zverev Falling Short


Alexander Zverev hasn’t reached a final this year, losing all five semi-finals. Four of them came against Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner.

The German was the top seed in Munich where he failed to win a fourth title. He needed 3 sets to get past Miomir Kecmanovic and Francisco Cerundolo before a 6-3 6-3 semi-final defeat to Flavio Cobolli.

Zverev has been tested again in Madrid, getting past Mariano Navone in 3 sets before a 6-3 7-6 victory over Terence Atmane. He lost his serve early in the 3rd set against Jakub Mensik, recovering to get through 6-4 6-7 6-3.

Verdict

Alexander Zverev has lost five semi-finals this year, one of them against Flavio Cobolli. Cobolli is inching closer to the Top 10 and can confirm his credentials with a upset win here.

Best Bet1: Flavio Cobolli +1.5 Sets Handicap @13/16 at Hollywood bets - 5 Units
Best Bet2: Flavio Cobolli Win Winner @12/5 at bet365 - 1 Unit
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