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Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar Live Stream & Betting Tips - Jodar to Win a Close Match at the Italian Open

john-eastwood
John Eastwood
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Last updated: Sat 09 May 2026 21:56
Matteo Arnaldi faces rising star Rafael Jodar in an exciting Italian Open clash. Arnaldi has regained excellent form, riding a seven-match win streak into this matchup, including several tough three-set battles. Jodar, on the other hand, has soared up the rankings, claimed his first ATP title, and aims for a fourth straight quarterfinal. While Arnaldi’s resilience is notable, predictions give the edge to Jodar in a tight match, likely to go three sets. Catch the action with free live streaming options and get expert betting insights.
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John Eastwood 09 May 2026
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  • Arnaldi has gone to 3 sets in 9 of his last 12 matches
  • Jodar is aiming for a 4th straight ATP Tour quarter-final
  • I am backing the young gun to get through in 3 sets
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Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar has reached the quarter-finals in his previous three events (Getty)

Rafael Jodar is a short priced favourite here but Matteo Arnaldi has been showing why he was a Top 30 player in 2024.

I think Jodar will get through this one, but he might have to work hard for it against the home crowd favourite.


 Matteo Arnaldi Rafael Jodar
Nationality Italy Spain
Age 25 (22 February 2001) 19 (17 September 2006)
Height 6'1" (1.85m) 6'3" (1.91m)
Plays Right-Handed Right-Handed
World Ranking 106 34
Career High 30 (August 2024) 34 (May 2026)
ATP Tour Titles 0 1
2026 ATP Tour Titles 0 1
ATP Rome Best Result Second Round (2023, 2024) First Appearance

HTH


This will be the first match between Matteo Arnaldi and Rafael Jodar.

Arnaldi Finding Form


Matteo Arnaldi lost eight of his opening ten matches this year to fall out of the Top 100. Only one of those defeats came against a Top 50 player.

The Italian got some confidence back last week after winning the Cagliari Challenger. Three of his five wins came in 3 sets before 6-4 6-4 victory over Hubert Hurkacz in the final.

Arnaldi has kept it going in Rome, defeating Jaume Munar 6-3 3-6 6-3 and Alex de Minaur 4-6 7-6 6-4. He has saved a combined 8/11 break points in Italy where he is getting plenty of support.

Jodar Closing in on Top 20


Rafael Jodar has been a huge improver this year, climbing from 165 to 34 in the rankings. He won his first ATP Tour title in Marrakech before easing into in Barcelona semi-finals where he lost in 3 sets to Arthur Fils.

The 19-year-old went to Madrid and took out Alex de Minaur and Joao Fonseca on his way to the quarter-finals. He faced another top player, going down 6-2 7-6 to Jannik Sinner.

The Spaniard took some time to get going in his opening match in Rome. He trailed 4-2 against Nuno Borges before winning 7-6 6-4, saving 7/8 break points.

Verdict

Matteo Arnaldi has found some form, winning seven straight matches with five of those coming in 3 sets. I think he can put up a fight against Rafael Jodar, but his run is likely to end against the Spaniard.

Best Bet1: Over 20.5 Games Total Games @4/5 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Rafael Jodar Win 2-1 Set Betting @16/5 at bet365 - 1 Unit
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